Astronomers are closely monitoring a newly discovered asteroid with a slightly increased chance of hitting Earth
Subscribe to the newsletter of Wonder’s Wonder Science. Explore the universe with news about wonderful discoveries, scientific progress and more.
The recently discovered asteroid, which has the attention of the astronomical community now has a slightly increasing danger of influence on Earth.
The asteroid is called 2024 YR4, it has a 2.2 % chance to strike our planet on December 22, 2032, according to European Space Agency. Risk evaluation increased from a chance by 1.2 % during the past week due to new notes.
Astronomers expect the percentage to develop with more notes sharing. If this asteroid follows the style of other asteroids near the Earth after its discovery, the chances of influence will rise and then decrease, according to the agency. For example, and Apophis asteroid He was once considered one of the most dangerous asteroids, with the possibility of hitting the Earth after its discovery in 2004. In 2021, scientists reviewed this opinion after an accurate analysis of the asteroid.
The more astronomers can monitor the asteroid 2024 YR4, the more they can improve their understanding of its size and path, which will determine the possibility of an effect.
“Basically, the more notes we get, the more we can settle and confirm the asteroid’s path, which is likely to turn into a fly, and not an effect,” according to Blog post The agency shared. “Thus, we expect the risk expectations to be reduced steadily/gradually to zero.”
The asteroid is between 131 to 295 feet (40 and 90 meters).
“The space rock has” a comparative scope of the large building. ” Chaudas added that the size of the asteroid, which astronomers are trying to determine with follow -up notes using multiple telescopes, is currently not sure.
“If the asteroid at the end of the estimated volume, the effect may result in an explosion damage of up to 50 km (31 miles) from the impact site,” said Chhodas. “But this is in a state of unlikely to affect at all. The possibility of damage to high speed arises (about 17 km per second, or 38,028 miles per hour) in which the asteroid enters the atmosphere.”
Asteroids of this size have an effect on Earth every few thousand years, and can cause severe damage to local areas, according to Esa.
In 1908, a 30 -meter asteroid (98 feet wide) hit the Podkamenaya Tunguska River in a remote Siberian forest in Russia, according to what he said Planetary Association. The event settled the trees and destroyed the forests by 830 square miles (2150 square kilometers).
In 2013, an asteroid at the level of 20 meters (66 feet) I entered the Earth’s atmosphere on ChelyabinskRussia. He exploded in the air, and launched 20 to 30 times more energy than the first atomic bomb energyThe brightness generates larger than the sun, exudes heat, destroys more than 7000 buildings and injured more than 1,000 people.
The discovery of a new asteroid in science
The last alert system of the floor, Atlas, and telescope in Rio Hortado, Chile, spied for the first time in 2024 years on December 27. The telescope is one of the NASA asteroid discovery programs to wipe the sky in search of the nearby sky. David Varneuchia, the navigation engineer at JPL and CNEOS, said by email.
The asteroid warning systems have sent an alarm after the asteroid identified a minimal opportunity to influence a non -zero possibility of collision with the Earth.
Since early January, astronomers have used the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish telescope and the very large telescope in Chile to track the asteroid, which currently exceeds 28 million miles (45 million km) of the ground and moved away from that time, said Varnuchia. .
When the asteroid moves away from the ground and becomes dim, researchers will rely on large telescopes to monitor this. The heavenly organism should be visible during early April and disappear as it continues in its orbit around the sun. Varneuchia said he would not return to the vicinity until 2028.
If 2024 YR4 disappears from the show before space agencies can exclude any opportunity to influence completely, the space rock will remain in the risk list until he returns in June 2028.
“Using available tracking data, we can predict the future of the asteroid,” said Farnocchia. “The more the asteroid follows, the greater the prediction. While we collect additional data, the uncertainty in the position of 2024 YR4 in 2032 will decrease.”
NASA and ESA regularly follow thousands of asteroids close to Earth, but based on size, it is not always easy to determine space rocks. But improvements in asteroid survey technology, and future asteroid missions, can discover that astronomers are not able to see it in the past. Currently, there are no other well -known asteroids that have more than 1 % chance to influence the Earth, according to Nassa.
Follow a possible threat
Two international groups were activated to respond to the response of asteroids approved by the United Nations – the international asteroid warning network, headed by NASA, and the space mission planning group, headed by the European Space Agency – in response to the threat level.
The international asteroid warning network is responsible for coordinating the organizations participating in tracking and describing the details of the asteroid – and if necessary, developing strategies to assess the consequences of influence.
Meanwhile, the advisory group for planning the space mission, which was recently held in Vienna, Austria, will provide recommendations and evaluate options for how to mitigate a possible impact if the asteroid remains a threat. Possible mitigation tactics include an asteroid deviation in space, such as NASA’s demonstration Double asteroid redirect test In 2022, or the evacuation of areas that are likely to be affected by the Earth, Varneuchia said.
The group continues to monitor 2024 YR4 and will meet again in late April or early May, when the space rock disappears from the show to re -evaluate whether any recommendations are needed, according to the European Space Agency.
“If the year 2024 YR4 remains a threat at the end of the current monitoring window, mitigation measures may be considered.” “But talking about mitigating it is premature. The priority at the present time is to continue monitoring 2024 YR4 and reducing topical uncertainty in 2032, when this effect is likely to be excluded.”
For more CNN news and newsletters, create an account on Cnn.com
