Bird flu could be on the cusp of transmitting between humans − but there are ways to slow down viral evolution

Disease forecast is similar to weather forecasts: We cannot predict the fine details of a specific outbreak or a specific storm, but we can often determine when these threats and preparation appear accordingly.

Viruses that cause bird influenza are possible threats to global health. The outbreak of modern animals A sub -type called H5N1 was especially worrying for scientists. Although H5N1 human infections were relatively rare, there was there More than 900 cases are slightly known in the world Since 2003 – Almost 50 % of these cases were fatal – The death rate is about 20 times higher From the 1918 influenza pandema. If the worst rare infections become common among people, the results may be devastating.

When approaching the possible disease threats from an anthropological perspective, my colleagues Me Recently published a book entitled “Emerging infections: Three epidemic transfers from prehistoric to the present timeTo check Methods formed human behaviors The development of infectious diseases, starting from the first major appearance in the Neolithic period and its continuation for 10,000 years to the present day.

It was shown from this deep time perspective, it becomes clear that H5N1 shows a common pattern Graduated invasion From animals to humans. Like many emerging viruses, H5N1 makes gradual evolutionary changes that can allow them to move between people. The periods between these evolutionary steps offer opportunities to slow down this process and possibly avoid a global catastrophe.

One virus single gossip

When the causes of the disease that causes the disease such as the influenza virus are already adapted to infection A process called Falover.

Spillover is a difficult institution. To be successful, the nurse must have the correct group The molecular “keys” Compatible with the molecular “locks” of the host so that he can storm the host cells and exit them and kidnap their symmetry machines. Since these locks are often different between species, the nurse may have to try many different keys before they completely affect the new species. For example, the virus that the virus uses may not work successfully to infect chicken and ducks on livestock and humans. And because new keys can only be manufactured through a random mutation, the possibilities of obtaining all the correct keys are very small.

Looking at these evolutionary challenges, it is not surprising that pathogens Often you stumble Part of the shrinkage process. A new variable of pathogens may be a transmission from animal only to person is also More vulnerable Because of the disease in advance or more vulnerable to infection due to extended pathogenic exposure.

Even so, the nurse may not be able to get out of his human host and move to another person. This is the current situation with H5N1. Over the past year, there was Many animal outbreaks In a variety of wild animals and pets, especially between birds and livestock. But there were also a small number of human cases, most of which occurred between Poultry workers and dairy products Who worked closely with large numbers of infected animals.

Epidemiologists call this position Viral: When human infections occur only in intermittent small outbreaks, they appear such as encrypted radio communications signals – small incomplete information that may add to a very fateful message. In the case of viral gossip, the message will be a human pandemic.

The intermittent individual cases of H5N1 indicate among people Moving from human to human It may likely happen at some point. But despite this, no one knows how much time or the number of steps that will happen.

Influenza viruses are rapidly evolving. This is partly because two or more influenza can affect the same host at the same time, allowing them to do so Modify their genetic materials with each other To produce completely new varieties.

These reinstalization events are likely to occur when there is a variety of host species. So it is known that H5N1 is known to be injured At least 450 different types of animals. It may not go long before the viral argument spoils the way to the epidemics of the greatest man.

Retirement of the path

The good news is that people can take basic measures to slow the development of H5N1 and may reduce the death of bird influenza in the event of a common human infection. But governments and companies will need to act.

People can start with better care for food animals. the Total poultry weight in the world More than all types of wild birds combined. So it is not surprising that the geography of most H5N1 outbreak It is closely tracked with housing on a large scale and the international transformation of live poultry is more than the patterns of nesting and migration from wild water birds. Reducing these agricultural practices can help reduce the development and spread of H5N1.

People can also take care of themselves better. On the individual level, most people can vaccinate against Common seasonal influenza viruses That revolves every year. At first glance, this practice may not look associated with the appearance of bird influenza. But in addition to preventing seasonal disease, vaccination against human varieties common to the virus will reduce the possibilities of mixing with bird varieties and give them the features they need to move from human to human being.

At the population level, societies can work together Improving nutrition and sanitation In the poorest population in the world. History has shown that the best nutrition increases the comprehensive resistance of new infections, and that a better sanitation reduces the amount of times that people are exposed to the causes of new diseases. In today’s interconnected world, the problems of the disease in any society It will spread in the end For every society.

For more than 10,000 years, human behaviors have formed the evolutionary paths of infectious diseases. Knowing this, people can reshape these paths for the better.

This article has been republished from ConversationAn independent, non -profit news organization brings you facts and trusted analysis to help you understand our complex world. Written by: Ron Barrettand McCalastter College

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Ron Barrett does not work with, consulting, or owns shares in or receives funding from any company or institution that will benefit from this article, and has not revealed any related affiliations that exceed its academic appointment.