An international group of scientists said on Tuesday that climate change increased the possibility of harsh conditions that allowed recent fires to calm in the Los Angeles region.
The hot, dry, and wind conditions that preceded the fires were 35 % more likely due to the phenomenon of pre -heated global warming, according to L. A new report from the global weather support groupWhich analyzes the impact of global warming on extremist events.
The fires, which started during the fierce wind storm and after the lack of precipitation in the Greater Los Angeles since the spring At least 29 people were killed And longing for more than 16,000 buildings, including homes, shops and schools.
“This was an ideal storm when it came to the conditions of fire disasters – components in terms of climate empowerment, the weather that leads fires and the huge environment built in the direction of the wind from where this ignition occurred,” at the University of California, Mercyid, who contributed to the report, said at a press conference .
Compared to the pre -industry time before using fossil fuels on a large scale, there are now an additional 23 days of the “drought season” on average every year in the Los Angeles region, which makes it likely to coincide with fires. Santa Anna seasonal windS.
Park Williams, a professor of geography at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the author of the report, said fires during cold seasons in southern California require four conditions: grass or brush on a large scale can burn; Abnormal dry conditions; Furning (which always comes from someone); And harsh weather, such as the last wind storm. Each of these conditions was described as an individual key in a system that requires all four to be turned for light.
Williams said: “Artificial warming due to the change of climate that a person causes makes light brighter,” Williams said.
The authors of the report analyzed weather models and climatic models to assess how the most warmer atmosphere turns into the possibility of fire ritual (in the sense of conditions that increase the risk of wildfire). They also followed how a scale called the weather indicator changed over time. The indicator tracks the temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds, and all factors that contribute to the possibility of a fire.
The researchers have found that this type of conditions that prompted the Los Angeles region’s fires is expected to occur on average once in 17 years in the climate of today. These conditions were expected to be once every 23 years without climate change, and it could have been less extreme when they occur, the report says.
The houses were destroyed in the Palisades fire in Los Angeles, on January 13.
As a group, global weather is a loose consortium of scientists who publish quick results about the role of climate change in harsh weather events. Although the research methods reviewed from peers, this specific rapid analysis did not pass through the accuracy of the model academic review, which may take months or more. Previous analyzes of the group heatand Washing fires and tornado Disasters withstood the audit after the initial version and eventually published in academic magazines.
For climate support scientists who are studying the amount of climate change that is responsible for specific events, forest fire disasters are famous for the challenges that limit incompatibility, and local nuances are very important.
In the case of the recent California fires, the report’s authors found that although climate change played a role, he was not the only factor.
The hills surrounding Los Angeles Floive with a brush that developed for a regular burning, There are more people in these areas today than in the past to start fires through cigarettes, power lines, fireworks, vehicles or other sources. In addition, it prompted the development of the neighborhood to the depth of areas vulnerable to burning, which means Houses operate as fuel for forest fires and contribute to their rapid spread.
“The fire in southern California is very complicated, right? It is a mixture of a number of things. Apatzoglu said:” This is a scene that contains a really distinct human imprint, “adding that the Los Angeles region has” a large number of population, a lot of ignition, and a lot of Issues related to the use of lands. “
The effect of climate change on the winds of Santa Anna, one of the driving factors behind the Los Angeles fires is mysterious. The authors of the report said that some research indicates that the wind will become less dense with the high climatic temperatures; However, other research indicates that this wind pattern will continue and may intensify during the cold months.
Williams said: “We do not know a direct mechanism that would link climate change to wind, but it may be,” Williams said.
This article was originally published on NBCNEWS.com
