You can feel time after the presidential election as a moment of clarity. Results, after all, at the end.
But over the past two decades, the post -election period has not been presented Any clarity Absolutely about the future of American policy. The winning party persuades itself repeatedly and repeatedly that it has won the state, or even the advantage of generations. The different losers retreat to an internal discussion. After only a few months, it becomes clear that the next stage of American policy will not be what the winners imagined.
This week, the next two years of American policy began to focus, and it does not seem to be as if it is Maga or Republican “Golden Age.” Private home elections In Florida and the Supreme Court election In Wisconsin, he stressed that Democratic voters were not amazed, in fact, to submit to the elections last November. More importantly, President Trump Comprehensive definitions – The economic shrinkage that may follow – creating tremendous political risks for the Republicans.
In one of the main respect, the elections on Tuesday were not important: they do not suggest that the Democrats have solved any of the problems assigned to them by the last elections. Instead, it often reflects Party feature Among the most knowledgeable, educated and civilian voters. This feature allowed Democrats to excel Low elections Throughout Trump’s era, even when he made it enormous Gains Among the disturbing and separate youth voters are the working and non -white class who appear only in the presidential elections.
However, Democrats will not be forced to confront many of these disturbing and separate voters until 2028. Thus last Tuesday, a reasonable preview of the next few years of elections: major democratic victories, including in the renewal elections next year.
Perhaps there was no one walking in pink caps, and perhaps the Democrats in Congress.Play dead“But the strength of the democratic special elections seems great as it was in 2017 and 2018, before the so -called Blue wave The house control turned.
Perhaps this should not necessarily be a surprise: this is what happened the last time that Mr. Trump won. But this is not what the victorious Republicans or the desperate Democrats were thinking about the victory of Mr. Trump, when there was no “no”.resistance“To Trump and”Vibrations“It appears to be promising a widespread cultural transformation.
Definitions Advertise WednesdayHowever, he presented a political problem with a completely different size to Mr. Trump and his party. There is no party or politician is evidence of stagnation. Historically, even the truly dominant political parties suffered from tremendous political defeats during the great economic shrinkage.
In any of these cases – not even with bad reputation Smoot-Hawley tariff Can the president bear the responsibility of the recession clearly as it is. Whatever it felt after the elections, the Republican Party is not close to the political dominant.
If anything, Mr. Trump and the Republicans today may be at risk in particular, because many of his political strength are based on the economy. Throughout his time as a political, he usually obtained his best classifications on his dealings with economic issues. He benefited from his reputation as a successful businessman and effective economic supervision during his first term. He won the recent elections, despite the enormous personal obligations, in any small part of that because the voters felt frustrated by the high prices and economic turmoil that followed the end of the epidemic.
In the National York Times/Siena College National surveys Last fallMore than 40 per cent of voters who supported Mr. Trump in 2024, but not in 2020 that the economy or inflation is the most important issue in their vote.
Even before a tariff this week, Mr. Trump excelled the honeymoon after the elections. for him Approval classification Less than 50 percent fell, again towards the place before the elections. for him Early threats To raise definitions, including partners such as Canada, Mexico and Europe, may have played an important role in reducing his support. In a reflection of the usual style, the latest opinion polls found that Mr. Trump’s rankings on the economy were worse than comprehensive approval classification. There were other indications that his actions had affected early political losses: consumer confidence was decreased, and inflation expectations were rising, and opinion polls found that the same definitions were in general.
This is all that fades compared to the tariffs on Wednesday. It is very early to judge the full economic impact and thus political repercussions. It may be too early to know the final of the Trump tariff. For the same reason, many supporters of Mr. Trump will give this policy a chance. His approval classification may not be drowned overnight.
But if the definitions caused a large recession and a significant increase in prices, as many economic analysts expect, the classification of approval of the collapse may be merely the beginning of its problems. While Mr. Trump It may not He nominated for his re -election (the third term in the third term dreams Despite), many Republicans – and many of them will be Never completely On the definitions in the first place. Indeed, Republican Senators supported half -school legislation to curb the president’s authority to impose definitions. This is not anywhere nearly enough to overcome the presidential veto, but it is an extraordinary level from the Republican opposition to Mr. Trump, and the time for the opposition to construction is not anywhere near.
If the economic repercussions are bad enough, dissatisfaction with the Trump administration can be combined with the feature of democratic demand for a long time to make the Republican countries that seem safe in 2026 – think about Kansas, Iowa and Texas – reasonably competition, perhaps even with control of the Senate. Constant support for Congress Republicans (or satisfaction with) Mr. Trump – whether on customs tariffs or other transgressions – can be in danger.
Currently, all these unusual developments are possible in the distant future. They are not necessarily, too. But with the emergence of the term Mr. Trump II, it seems increasingly clear that the “golden age” that disturbed the “feelings” after the elections is less likely.
