The Guardian view on Trump’s trade war: no one will win, but China is taking the long view | Editorial

NOh one, at least among all consumers and workers, he will win A fierce commercial war Donald Trump has unleashed. This “game who can carry more pain”, as he put it One analyst. And because trade is at the heart of US relations with its largest target, China, the rest of the bilateral relationship is likely to deteriorate. This is also related.

After China, though Economic conflicts In recent years, you may see a long -term chance in the current crisis. Beijing’s response to initial American tariff ads was measured. Now the “fighting to the end” pledges and imposes an additional 50 % tariff on American goods – taking the total To 84 % – Revenge from the definitions that Mr. Trump now says will reach 125 %.

Don’t expect that For stumbling first. The privileges are likely to be taken as evidence of weakness, which encourages the United States to increase pressure. Xi Jinping is also a strong man who asks nationalism with a slowdown in economic growth. The decline will be insulting, especially when the Vice President of the United States, JD Vance, talks about “” “”Chinese peasants“.

Beijing already allows the yuan For weaknessAlthough it is unlikely to reduce the value of the currency value. It has been prepared for this moment. The end of the demographic boom, Mr. Xi’s vision of his nation, the influence of the epidemic, the first period of Mr. Trump, and the United States that turned against China (which Beijing deserves it deserves a lot of blame) to reshape the economy. China has diversified agricultural imports and has found new markets for its goods – although exports to the United States still represent Less than 3 % of the GDP. Last month, that Plans announced To “increase” local consumption “strongly”, although the previous procedure on this long ambition did not match the speech.

Mr. Trump’s sudden announcement on Wednesday highlights that it suspends punitive definitions on other 90 -day countries that highlight the clear inherent intention to make it distanced from China and stop its use as a channel for its goods. But if you go ahead, high rates risk pushing them towards Beijing instead. Mr. Trump’s wrong policy may also reflect an increasing concern about the impact of these definitions, not the least among his supporters. China is confident that Mr. Trump will be subjected to increasing pressure to rethink Supporting billionaireOld age workers watch their pension funds Divingand Farmersemployees For fear of their jobs And consumers Think about iPhone devices cost And a disferee. The bilateral deal is not impossible.

Beijing does not like what awaits us. But in the long run, it has more confidence in its course. The 2008 financial crisis is seen when “saved the world” with the huge stimulation package, and looks forward to the new self -insurance after the Sputnik moment of artificial intelligence Dibsic platform.

Above all, Beijing believes that when this storm passed, a few of them will consider the United States an economic guarantor or a reliable security, and China will appear a more predictable partner, if not more loved. At the Munich Security Conference in February – where Mr. Vance Successful attack on European allies occupied the headlines of the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, pledge China should be a “constantly constructive force” and “the factor of certainty in this multi -polar system.” Some countries may feel forced to live with trade and investment restrictions in Beijing, and their use of economic coercion of political purposes. Others may simply be drifted from the orbit of America.

This is a transformative moment in the global ranking. China He is expected to suffer. But it will not be completely unhappy because it is watching the United States offered to decline.

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