US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities is Trump’s biggest gamble yet as president | Donald Trump
Donald Trump, a self-risk news, made the largest gambling-not only with his political reputation and the future of the Middle East, but it can be said that the concept of complete military intervention as a way to solve incurable geopolitical problems.
If the American President – and there will be many competing explanations and the standards of success in the coming weeks – he could have disturbed him IranThe global impact of the 40 -year regime reduces threats against the West. In this process, his personal authority will be strengthened, and the next three years will be a victory that may exacerbate some of its worst authoritarian and defensive features.
Also, the United States will be close Benjamin NetanyahuA man who does not hate deeply in large parts of the world to treat Israel for the Palestinians and its attack on Gaza.
Under such a scenario, America will not be loved, but it will be afraid, and since this fear will come. After the land and professions’ interventions in Afghanistan in the aftermath of September 11 and the Iraq war in 2003, Trump had re -established the value of the limited military intervention.
Equally, however, a lot can happen. Many leaders and diplomats in Europe may hope that this is the case – not because they have time for the Iranian government, but because they fear Trump’s methods of risk, and in breach Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty And international law.
China, which has great interests in Iran, will want to ensure that this episode does not enter into a unipolar world. Russia will draw lessons, and it is already ready to recognize the danger of the American victory, as Iran tells that it is ready to do more to help Tehran develop its nuclear capabilities.
The Gulf states are also Expressing anger at Trump’s intervention. Arab diplomats said they were trying to intervene Trump’s military with his exceptional speech in Riyadh two months ago, as he criticized the American military adventure. Trump said: “In the end, the so-called” nation’s builders “destroyed a much more country than what the interventions were interfered with in complex societies who did not understand themselves,” Trump said.
The Gulf states are afraid to be dragged into a war. Most of them believed that the incompetent Trump needed to allow Iran the right to enrich the very limited uranium, under the United Nations monitoring closely. As a matter, it was considered a significantly solution through the patient’s diplomacy – the type in which the Europeans have just started.
The military conflict does not end. So far, Iran was superior to this war. But Trump could find himself a longer struggle than he intended. Netanyahu has so far shown the best in starting conflicts than to end it. Once fully involved in Iran’s struggle, Trump will have to see him to the end, and link him to a kind of endless foreign conflict and which he promised in the course of the election campaign that will be abandoned.
If Iran refuses to send it, it has options. It can abandon the non -spread treaty, deport the United Nations inspectors and try to rebuild the nuclear program secretly. If Tehran still has a very hidden supply of uranium, its nuclear scientists may be seduced by trying to rush to get a raw nuclear device. This would give Tehran the time to try to mobilize support between its allies who are beaten in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
SANAM Vakil, a Middle East specialist at London Thinktank Chatham House, said that the American leader realizes this strike once. She said, “Trump was eager, he vaccinated the strikes, and sent warning messages to Iran in advance.” “I think he wants to end with negotiation, with a deal and can show it is a victory in the return of Iran’s nuclear program.”
But careful escalation after such an American escalation is fraught with risks. “President is patience and does not have the supply of prolonged negotiation. The Iranians want sanctions, but they did not know how they could trust Trump, a man who says he has deceived them over and over again,” Fachel said.
The best scenario is that Iran settles on symbolic revenge, as happened in 2020, when Trump The assassination order of Qasim SoleimaniCommander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. The President may then push Israel to its war and urge Iran to resume negotiations on a new nuclear deal.
In both cases, Abbas Aragichi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, seemed to talk about the region with his evaluation. “This morning, this morning will have serious consequences,” he said.
