Deep cuts to hurricane data could leave forecasters in the dark

The forecasters are to lose some of their sharp eyes in the sky just a few months before its peak in the Atlantic season when the Ministry of Defense stopped a major source of satellite data due to cybersecurity fears.

The data comes from the three -satellite microwave sensors for the polar accreditation that is operated for military and civil purposes. The data from the sensors is very important to predict the hurricane because it allows them to look through layers of clouds and in the center of the storm, where rain and thunderstorms develop, even at night. The sensors do not depend on visible light.

Data loss – at a time when national weather service is Less number of weather balloons launch And the agency Abbreviation on meteorologists due to the budget cuts – Many hurricane experts said that the predictors are likely to lack the main developments in a hurricane. These changes help determine the level of threat that the storm may pose, and therefore how emergency managers should prepare. Microwave data provides some early indications that the ongoing winds are enhancing within the storm.

“It is really the tool that allows us to look under the cover. It is definitely a great loss. “They are able to discover when the wall of a wall is formed in a tropical storm and if it is intense – or condensed quickly.”

Researchers believe that rapid condensation has become more likely in tropical storms, as oceans warm as a result of the climate change caused by humans.

The three satellites are operated for military and civil purposes through the defense meteorological satellite program, which is a joint effort for the National Oceanic and Atmosphere (NOAA) and the Ministry of Defense (DOD).

While hurricane experts said they are concerned about the loss of the tool, Kim Dostre, the NOAA telecommunications manager, reduced the impact of the decision on the prediction of the hurricane by the national weather service.

In an email, Duster said the army’s microwave data “is a single data set in a strong set of prediction and modeling tools in NWS.”

Dostre said that these models include data from geological satellites – a different system that constantly monitors the Earth from about 22,300 miles and provides a observation point that appears constant because satellites coincided with Earth’s rotation.

It also accommodates measurements from Hurricane Hunter missions, buoys, weather balloons, wild radar, and other satellites that revolve around the polar period, including NOAA, which it said provides “the richest and most monitoring of the available nihad weather.”

An official in the American spacecraft said that the satellites and their concerned tools remain functional and that the data will be sent directly to the satellite reading stations via Weather via DOD. The official said that the numerical meteorological center and ocean science in the naval fleet made a decision to stop processing and publicly processing that data.

The navy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Earlier this week, section of the navy The researchers reported that he will stop processing and sharing data On June 30 or before, some researchers received an e -mail from the numerical fleet center and ocean science in the navy, saying that the data storage and sharing program depends on a processing station that was using the “end of life” operating system with a weak inscription.

“The operating system cannot be upgraded, a source of anxiety for cybersecurity, and a danger to DOD networks, said, the email, which was reviewed by NBC News.

This step will reduce the amount of microwave data available to the breadth in half, at the estimation of McKennie.

Snow and ice scientists use these microwave data to track the range of polar ice, which helps scientists understand the climate trends in the long run. Seapid ice forms of frozen ocean water. It grows in coverage during the winter months and usually dissolves during warmer times of the year. Sea ice reflects sunlight again into space, Who cools the planet. This makes it an important measure to follow it over time. The extent of the marine ice summer in the Arctic It is heading to decline due to global warming.

Walt Mayer, the chief research scientist at the Snow and National Ice Data Center, said his program was aware of the marine decision earlier this week.

Mayer said that satellites and sensors are about 16 years old. He said that the researchers are preparing for them to fail in the end, but they did not expect the army to pull the components on the data without a little warning.

Mayer said that the snow and national ice data center depends on the military satellites of data on marine ice coverage since 1987, but it will adapt its systems to use similar microwave data from a Japanese satellite, called ASR-2, instead.

“It may take a few weeks before we enter this data in our system,” Mayer said. “I don’t think he will undermine the record of the marine ice climate in terms of confidence in it, but it will be more difficult.”

Satellite with a polar track that is part of the defense meteorological satellite program provides intermittent coverage for hurricanes.

Mayer said that satellites usually press all over the world in a direction from the north and south every 90-100 minutes in a relatively low orbit. Wipe the microwave sensors across the ground area, which was estimated at 1500 miles.

With the ground recycling, these polar satellites can take pictures that help researchers determine the potential storm structure and density, if they are on their way.

“Often this is just luck, you will get a really nice pass on a hurricane,” McKinniedi said, adding that the change will reduce the geographical area covered by microwave tests and frequency of examination operations for a specific storm.

Andy Hazleton, a hurricane designer and a co -scientist at the Miami Cooperative University Institute for Maritime Studies and Air Country, said the microwave data is used in some of the hurricane models and also by predictors who can reach realistic data perceptions.

Hazleton said that the predictors are always looking for visual signatures in the microwave data, which often provides the first evidence that the storm is intensifying strength and construction.

The National Hurricane Center defines a rapid intensification as an increase of 35 miles per hour or higher in the ongoing winds within a tropical storm within 24 hours. Loss of microwave data is especially important because in recent years, scientists have noticed an increase in rapid condensation, The trend is likely to feed, partially, by changing climate As warm ocean water.

A 2023 The study of the Scientific Reports Magazine published I found that tropical hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean were almost 29 % more likely to undergo rapid condensation from 2001 to 2020, compared to 1971 to 1990. Strengthening Hurricane Milton from a tropical storm to a -5 -category hurricane in only 36 hours. Some of this increase occurred overnight, when other satellite tools provide less information.

The trend is particularly dangerous at the storm, Like Hurricane IdaliaSteel before hitting the coast.

“We definitely have seen in recent years, many cases of rapid condensation before landing. This is the thing that you don’t really want to miss,” added, adding that the microwave data “is excellent in giving an additional 12 hours of time period to see the internal basic changes.”

Brian Lamar, a former meteorological specialist at the weather forecast station in the National Weather Circle in Tampa, said the data is also useful for predicting the effects of flooding with a hurricane to the beach.

“This examination can help predict a place where rainfall and heavier rain can be,” Lamar said. “This data is very important for public safety.”

The hurricane season begins on the first of June and ends on November 30. It usually begins in the peak in late summer and early autumn. NOAA foreclosure The 2025 hurricane season predicted the most busy From model, with six to ten hurricanes.

This article was originally published on NBCNEWS.com