In America and other developed countries, Low birth rates Fears that the population will lead to economic recession and the drainage of social welfare systems.
This draws attention from a cross section of groups that arouse warnings about population collapse and enhance policies to encourage childbearing. The pro -championship movement is distinguished by a footsteps in the White House, where President Donald Trump called for a boom in a baby, Vice President JD Vance and former adviser Elon Musk, who defends large families, and the administration policy with combating abortion Defenders.
American Senate members are now Discussion Mr. Trump’s budget bill, which targets a number of family -related issues such as child tax credit and college financing.
Why did we write this
The low American birth rate raises movement to encourage people to have more children. The challenge is to open the reason for the presence of fewer children than they say.
The groups that want Americans to have more children promote a wide range of thinking. But there is a common concern about the gap between the number of children who want people and the number they have. Most (73 %) is ideal for the presence of two or three childrenAccording to the Gallop survey; but The fertility rate (the number of live births for each female of childbearing age) is a low 1.6 record.
“The fact that people’s desires to have children remain high, but birth rates are evidence that our society is not built in a way that allows people to fulfill their basic desires to obtain a family,” says Karen Jozo, director of the Carolina Center at North Carolina University in Chapel Hill.
Many political experts, including those who say there is an urgent need for more children in the United States, agrees that what is in the budget bill will not do much to increase births. Wider efforts are needed.
Budget bill
The Children’s Senate Bill will enhance 10 %, and up to $ 2200. Raising the credit of the two parties. The draft law also includes $ 1,000 payments for savings accounts, called “Trump accounts”, for children born between 2024 and 2028.
“I am happy that Congress is committed to lifting [child tax credit] … but I would like to see them doing more. ” Liman StoneDirector of the Pronatalist Initiative at the Institute of Family Studies, which enhances traditional family structures.
Focusing on the family says it is something that progressively and conservatives agree Patrick BrownA fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center who defends policies that encourage more births. It aims to “[make] So that the family is in the center of what we do instead of just a kind of individuals’ economy. “
This includes facilitating people to marry and start a family, and allow parents to raise their children “in a way that does not feel isolated or individual.”
He says the budget is “not my novel for a pro -family business schedule.”
It is not that experts say that financial incentives, similar to the child’s expanded credit, are not useful and required for parents. Financial incentives may not be sufficient. It also proposes the draft law of Republicans Spending -Including social welfare programs such as Medicaid and the additional nutrition assistance program-which have struck the financing of many low-income families directly.
Despite the discounts in spending, the non -partisan Congress budget office is expected to add the Trump bill. 3.3 trillion dollars In debts during the next decade.
“They are mainly trying to reduce the benefits of the safety mesh in order to help cover the cost of your tax cuts for people [in] “The upper side of the income of distribution,” says Mr. Brown.
The budget also makes significant discounts for the Federal Student Loans Program, and qualifies K-12 expenses, including tuition fees for private schools, for Pratax saving accounts, which are now limited to the costs related to the college. The draft law included a proposed path “choosing the school” to teach K-12, but that faced a setback on Friday when Parliament in the Senate said it was. Among several elements Which violates the rules of procedures and should be considered separate from the maygapel.
Policies are compatible with a a report By the Conservative Heritage Foundation. Heritage refused to talk to the screen for this story.
In addition to the budget bill, Senate members think The two parties proposal This would eliminate the costs of families to give birth by asking health insurance companies to cover the entire bill. In the meantime, President Trump announced his expanded arrival In laboratory fertilization treatments. The White House did not make details.
He says the country’s trend in the country is a crisis yet Catherine PacalukDirector of Political Economy at Busch Busch College at the Catholic University. But in the course of collision with the economic obligations of the government. In the short term, as you say, policy makers need economic security through the budget budget – which is important, she says, “not easy from a distance.”
Big tent, big differences, one goal
People who agree that the United States need more children at odds. In March, the second annual Natalcon gathered artificial insemination specialists, anti -abortion, population crawls and right -wing extremists who are interested in minority population that outperforms people over eggs.
Artificial insemination is the point of disagreement. Those who consider pregnancy the beginning of life oppose the disposal of fetuses, which is a routine part of the artificial insemination process.
Another group, from the technology industry, wants to apply technology to children’s creation, including the use of artificial insemination and Genetic test To the screen for possible and possible health issues.
Serious talks occur on the American fertility rate between researchers and pro -child birth groups that distance from positions related to racism, sexual discrimination and theft.
For example, the policies of encouraging more births will lead to more births among non -white societies, says Mr. Stone. “We are completely fine with that.”
Like Mr. Stone, many who support the highest birth rate also boost the idea that traditional families – husbands of two different sexes with children – are perfect.
Mr. Brown says this ideal does not require a woman to abandon education or a meaningful profession. He says: The woman should be able to “practice their talents in the same way as men.” “The exit from this trap in which we are in redefining our economy, and absorbing all people who suffer from family life and work, instead of placing men against women.”
But there are fears that focusing on fertility can limit the reproductive options for women. The 2022 Supreme Court reflected the federal recognition of the right to abortion when it canceled the Roe V. Wade; Since then, more than half of the United States has increased the restrictions imposed on this practice.
Any strategy aimed at fertility will eventually flounder reproductive options Leigh SenderowiczThose who study fertility policies as a population source and public health researcher at Wisconsin Madeyson University. “We only have contracts, contracts and contracts of evidence that this is the case.”
People “balance the competing goods”
A group of studies indicate anxiety about the cost of living, job endeavors, housing shortages, and the collapse of societal support contributes to slowing birth rates. American birth rate is less than the global average.
one Pew Research Center survey Nearly two -thirds of adults appear believe that caring for free children will encourage more people to have children; Half them says they say a paid family leave and more tax credits for parents, and 45 % say the monthly salary will do so.
Mr. Brown and Mr. Stone, whose work intersects often connects the fertility rate with a decrease in the marriage rate. Another PEW Wiping A third of adults who have never had it appeared that this was because they did not find the right partners. He said twelve percent, because that could not bear its costs.
Education also matters. Mr. Brown says that the United States must write notes from European Higher Education models, which take less years for professionals who need education at the graduate level. This means that a person can get an early start in his career and his family, he says.
But most European countries have fertile fertility rates, including North countriesThat is, the Americans in general refer to the policies and institutions that focus on the family.
Dr. Pacaluk, whose book “Hannah Children: Women who defy the birth quietly,” says that people have less than children because this is what they really prefer.
“Most people do something that balances them for competing goods in their lives,” she says.
She adds that today’s children there is no need, and there is no need, and the best way to influence values ​​are information campaigns – for example, stories of societies that want more children about what looks like a parent.
“Because the information is the strongest change in people’s options.”
Amanda StephensonDemograph at the University of Colorado Bulder, who leads the Colorado fertility project, says population transformations do not need an alarm.
She says politics and demography constantly affect each other, and the population is always changing. Other parts of society, such as the place where people live and who are interested in children and older adults, will find countless people to respond to population changes.
“We need to work on this together,” says Professor Stevenson. “We will respond in other ways, and it will not just escalate this [population] panic.”
Dr. Jozo notes that birth rates have decreased, but the population in the United States and the world are still growing.
“The collapse of the population is not imminent,” says Dr. Jozo. The number of people in the United States is expected to grow up to 2080, then a plateau or decline “slowly super over time.” Moreover, as you say, the assumptions are lost.
For example, the number and types of jobs will change as artificial intelligence replaces people in the workplace.
“We cannot predict a lot of things because humans are noticeably flexible and innovative,” she says.
