Earth’s strongest ocean current could slow down by 20% by 2050 in a high emissions future | Oceans
In the future of high emissions, the world’s most powerful stream in the world may slow in 20 % by 2050, which accelerates to increase the melting of ice dishes in the Antarctic and sea level rise.
The Siri current in Antarctica – a clockwise trend more than four times from the Gulf course that connects the Atlantic, Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean – plays a decisive role in the climate system by influencing heat absorption and carbon dioxide in the ocean and preventing warmer water from arrival Antarctica.
Using the fastest super computer in Australia and climate simulation, GADI, located in the Access National Research Infrastructure in Canberra, researchers used climate models to analyze the effect of temperature, ice melting and wind conditions on the periodic current in the Antarctic.
Results, Published in environmental research messagesIt revealed a clear link between the melting water from the snow shelves in Antarctica and the slow circular current, and it comes after less than a week Another sheet Expect vulnerability in the vital Atlantic currents.
What they found suggested “a large reshaping of the Southern Ocean dynamics”, with “long -term effects on global climate patterns, peripheral heat distribution, and marine ecosystems.”
Professor Professor Professor Jane, from Melbourne University, described the result as “worrying”.
He explained that with the melting of the ice in the Antarctic, which launched the cold, and the fresh water in the ocean, this drowned and spread towards the equator. The flow of fresh water changed the contrast of the density in the ocean, which is a major motor of movement, causing slowdown.
“The ocean is very complex and accurately balanced. If this current” engine “collapses, there may be severe consequences, including more climate fluctuations, with maximum degrees in certain areas, and the acceleration of global warming due to a decrease in the ability of the ocean to work as a carbon basin.”
The co -author and climate scientist, Dr. Taymour Suhail, said that the slowdown can lead to a “vicious cycle”, where more warm water reaches the shelf in Antarctica rushes the melting of the ice and increases the weakening of the current.
He said that these ecosystems and food networks can disrupt, as the ocean stream helps prevent gas species – such as the south of the bull – from reaching the fragile continent, or redistributing them.
“The concerted efforts to reduce global warming – by reducing carbon emissions – will limit the melting of ice in Antarctica, and avoid the expected slowdown.”
Dr. Edward Doderridge, a designer of the physical oceans at the University of Tasmania, who did not participate in the study, said it was important and amazing, given that previous studies indicated that the northern parts of the circular current in Antarctica were accelerating due to the high temperature of the ocean.
Doddridge said it is important to investigate the ways in which oceanic currents may change, given more than 90 % of the additional besieged heat on Earth may have been stored in the oceans, which the heat moved around in ways that affected the climate and weather in different places all over the world.
The climate scientist at the University of Monash, Dr. Arian Boric, who did not participate in the paper, said the dramatic changes were already in the ocean around Antarctica.
She said that the fresh water stored in the platelets and shelves of the Antarctic was dissolved with an acceleration rate, and in every summer since 2022 – for the first time in the recorded history – the extent of the marine ice surrounding the continent decreased to less than 2 square meters.
She said: “We need to know what the ocean is doing and the amount of heat and carbon that the ocean is eating so that we can display the climate we face here on Earth in Australia, and we can adapt better for this climate.”
