Scientists can help governments plan for the future. But don’t forget sci-fi writers: we can do it too | Emma Newman
I I’m an imaginative person, but I never imagined I would find myself in a room with the Department of Defense talking about what the world could be like several decades in the future. But that’s what I’ve been doing lately, as one of many science fiction authors in the world Creative Futures The project is a partnership between Coventry University and the Ministry of Defence’s Defense Science and Technology Laboratory.
As the world seems intent on turning some of the dystopian futures we’ve imagined into reality, I’ve raised my concerns about how our work will be used. But we were not there to propose ideas for weapons of mass destruction. We were there to talk about things like the impact of the climate crisis and potential future technologies, and how each could impact society. What kind of crises could arise and what kind of disaster relief might be needed. the Science fiction writers of the past He did a very good job of predicting our present – from the moon landing (Jules Verne, 1865) to the use of geostationary satellites for global communications (Arthur C. Clarke, 1945) – so I can see why the Department of Defense wanted our contributions.
The science fiction novels I write contain imagined futures, not predictions, and the difference is important. I’m not a fortune teller. But I have a particular skill set that involves looking at how large systems, such as societies, work, and how changing certain aspects of them can lead to possible futures. For example, if financial AI instantly erased all debt records, how would that impact the life of a doctor struggling to pay off a student loan? What about the executive officer at the World Bank? What about a loan shark?
My novel After the atlas The film is set 80 years in the future, which is dystopian because I deliberately imagined a future that could plausibly exist if we continued down the path we’re on now. I’ve written this book before Donald TrumpDuring my first term, after all these years, I fear that the world I imagined in that novel is likely to come true. For example, access to fresh, nutritious foods only exists for the rich, the erosion of distinctions between government and corporations, and the destruction of human rights in the face of unfettered capitalism.
But something has happened since I wrote the novel that brought me into that room. I was beginning to worry that writing dystopian science fiction was a panacea, but maybe it was part of the problem. I started looking for ways to tell stories about a brighter future, because if we can’t imagine it, we can’t strive for it.
In keeping with this new direction in my work, I created Imagine tomorrow A Friends of the Earth podcast, which is about the technology and societal work happening today, extrapolating a brighter future from those starting points. For example, in the first episode, I created a future vision for regenerating post-industrial cities and eliminating fuel poverty thanks to community-owned clean energy projects. They were inspired by community energy clusters in Wales, and the fantastic UK-based GreenSCIES initiative which is pioneering the creation of community heating networks using recovered heat from data cooling centres, the London Underground, and even flooded mines. It’s not science fiction: technology. It exists now, and community energy groups across the country have the knowledge. We just need the political will to support communities in fundraising and affordable community loans.
I was pleased to be in that room with the Department of Defense, because I had the opportunity to steer the discussion toward imagining a better future and how we can get there, as well as all the dystopian scenarios.
I hope to soon have the opportunity to work with people in the field of disaster preparedness and resilience for potential crises 50 years in the future. I have been asked to help consider a range of factors that could lead to new problems. For example, what if future life support devices were based on a software based subscription model? If a new pandemic occurs, will the subscription price increase? Or what if the company managing those devices was compromised with ransomware?
When it comes to planning and policy, it is clear that who is in the room will have an impact on the future. Obviously I want scientists to be there, but I also want science fiction writers to be there. Because we are not inside those systems, we can look at the factors involved in a completely different way and infer possible influences.
I very much wish we were in the room with decision-makers to assess the impacts of AI on the UK’s prospects, because we in the world of science fiction have been thinking about the impact of machine learning, big language models, and real AI for decades. We are not trying to extract millions of pounds from decision-makers. I would ask dozens of questions about copyright, accuracy, and biased algorithms. I would ask whether they have really considered the implications for companies, who are only interested in maximizing profits, having access to information that could jeopardize the right to privacy. I would like to ask how they would deal with a Silicon Valley-based company, in light of the current US administration, and whether they would be willing to transfer public funds to companies that donate to that system. I would ask for a lot more besides that. I imagine they would find me rather annoying.
Science fiction writers have the ability to look at large systems and how changing a single variable can affect the people living within them. We bring them back to life and help readers understand how they suffer, how they survive, and how they live. And when it comes to decisions that can create and destroy jobs, homes, health care, and all the other threads that weave society together, this strange skill set may be more valuable than you think.
