On Wednesday, Israel and Hamas announced an agreement on a multiple stage cease-fire This, if it is fully implemented, will lead to the end of the war in Gaza. The first stage of the deal, which is expected to enter into force in the coming days, will call for the release of some of the remaining Israeli hostages that Hamas maintains, and some Israeli forces retreat in Gaza. The Palestinian prisoners detained in Israel will be released. Meanwhile, more humanitarian aid, which has been repeatedly developed by Israel, will be allowed to the region. The subsequent stages will witness the launch of more prisoners and hostages, and the removal of all Israeli forces from Gaza. The Biden administration has worked with the Trump administration in the deal, which is still officially approved by the Israeli government; Donald Trump took the credit for the agreement on Wednesday. (He made it clear that he wanted to see the hostages that were released before inaugurated.)
I recently spoken by phone with Aaron David Miller, an older colleague in Carnegie for the gift of international peace and a former Foreign Ministry official who participated in peace negotiations in the Middle East decades ago. During our conversation, which was released for length and clarity, we discussed the reason for the decision of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, to agree to the ceasefire now, and what is Trump’s relationship with Israel, and why the Biden administration was unable to obtain it for a long time.
What is different now? Why may this a ceasefire happen?
The escalation and Israel in Gaza in Gaza, in Lebanon, and even in Iran, have clarified the remainder of the Hamas leadership, whose options were greatly narrowed and that they have nothing to show it for fifteen months of war, unlike death and destruction. This deal gave them an opportunity to reject the idea of Netanyahu mainly that he would achieve “complete victory”.
The second thing is the fact that the recent military successes of Netanyahu in Gaza and Lebanon, and in strikes against Iran, convinced him that he could take a deal, in his rule, will not exceed the first stage, and that he could be able to make sure [his right-wing coalition partners] Bezalel Smotrich and ITAMAR BEN-GVIR he can ultimately resume the war after the first phase of the deal.
Yes, many Netanyahu’s allies say in the media that this agreement may not exceed the first stage. Can you talk about that, and what are the stages?
This was hypothetical throughout these negotiations, since Biden explained the three -phase frame. The first stage gives each side things without forcing them to surrender, for political and security reasons, their basic cards. It is only the second stage that mainly tears the cover. At that point, Hamas is obligated to return all hostages. Netanyahu is forced to admit that the war has ended, and it is linked to the full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas will never be ready to abandon the remaining hostages, including the Israeli Defense Army soldiers, living and dead, unless Netanyahu agrees to end the war and withdraw the Israeli forces from Gaza, which will turn Hamas a political victory.
On the other hand, Netanyahu is not simply ready to end the war, not to mention the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, under any circumstances. Even if you have a different Israeli prime minister, Israel will withdraw from Gaza only if it can be convinced that there is a security force capable of stopping and renewing Hamas.
But Netanyahu also does not want another force there, unlike the Israeli army, right?
No, he did not. It can be reluctantly persuaded if there are Arabic shoes on the ground. Even if so, the Israeli withdrawal will be very gradual and performance, depending on what they see is the function and effectiveness of the security force. For this reason, I did not think that this Israeli government would be able to support and facilitate the transition from the first stage to the second stage. Look at what is happening in responding to the first stage only. You have Ben-GVir and Smotrich threatening both the government.
So, you think we will get the first stage, where some Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners are released, and all aid flows to Gaza can be released, and Trump Widan can demand victory. But you do not see this the beginning of the end of the conflict in a greater way?
It is difficult to see. The second stage means, mainly, what is the future of Gaza? Who will judge? What security forces will be required? What about reconstruction? There are hundreds of studies conducted by tanks and intellectual governments-Europeans, Israelis and Americans-in Gaza after the conflict, but we are a light years away from the policy required to implement any rational plan to deal with these facts.
I interrupted you earlier before saying the third reason for the reason for the deal now.
The outgoing American administration has no influence and the incoming management has a lot. The truth is that Netanyahu believes that it is difficult to play with not to Donald Trump from what he had to say no, and the manipulation, Joe Biden. This is the inability to predict it is very important to make Netanyahu’s decisions on this issue. He wanted to give Trump a victory before Monday that would remove Netanyahu as a Trump problem in the first few weeks or months of his administration, and (B) wants the currency with Trump to focus Trump on what Netanyahu is the real agenda, which makes Americans support or satisfy Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
In saying no Leiden, Netanyahu knew that he would receive support for the entire Republican Party. Say no to Trump, and there is no counter. Trump dominates the Republican Party, and there is no escape valve. There is no alternative electoral circle in America that Netanyahu can resume. Trump crushed the market.
I have read two distinguished arguments on this topic. One of them is that Trump threatened Netanyahu and asked him to end the war, and he was able to do what Biden could not. The second says mainly that Netanyahu is doing this against Trump, which Biden did not give him, such as annexing the West Bank, or the strike on Iran that I mentioned.
Trump is not this strategy. I think Trump has mainly looked at Netanyahu, understands that he is a political figure determined to stay in power, and understands that he is a problem for Trump. It was a problem for Trump in Trump’s first term, when four or five Israeli elections were held. Trump rose once, “They continue to hold elections and no one elected.” It was a problem for Trump when Trump criticized him for running in the field of bad public relations on Gaza, or for not completing the job.
Perhaps the true motivation of Trump, which I think is strategic, is that when he looks at the entire Middle East, there is one field that really cares about it, and this is the Gulf. Because the Gulf is stable, the Gulf represents financial interests. The Gulf has hydrocarbons. The Gulf has Emeras, the Crown Prince, and the kings they teach him. The Gulf is its main success in foreign policy during its first term, which was the Ibrahim Convention.
For him, it’s transactions. They are authoritarian personalities like him. He can handle them. He wants the Nobel Peace Prize, and he believes that he can get one through the Israeli Normalization Agreement. But here it is complicated, because Trump has appointed Mike Hakapi, an evangelical supporter of detail, as an ambassador to Israel.
True, an important part of the idea behind the Saudi normalization deal was that this would happen with a kind of promise in a Palestinian state.
exactly. The more victims and wreckage you have in Gaza, the more the price that Muhammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, will be likely to claim from any Israeli government before agreeing to normalize the black Israeli. This will not be done at a cheap price.
I want to return to Biden. Over the past many months, his criticism was mainly that the United States has benefited from its use – well, cut off arms sales. But I do not realize that Donald Trump will cut off arms sales to Israel. I do not realize that Donald Trump will really do any of the political things that people have called, especially Biden critics. What is the threat that he already poses? Bibi only does not want to shout on the phone by Trump, but he is happy to shout on the phone by Biden?
