The prospects for the American economy have been greatly calm within months. After its international peers excelled last year, the warning lights on a dashboard of economic indicators thwarted, as analysts warn that Donald Trump’s wrong approach is hitting the largest economy in the world.
Fears of The stagnation of the United States this year is growingIn the so -called “Trumpcess”, the center A sharp decrease in business and consumer confidence The president also threatens the tariff of punitive imports on allies and enemies alike.
Most economists calculate that the recession – is known as two consecutive quarterly of economic product – can be avoided. But it is clear that there are the storm clouds that gathered in the first 100 days of the president at the White House.
gross domestic product
The American growth in GDP (GDP) has surpassed its international peers in recent years, and since the wandering epidemic in particular – the Biden administration helped pump billions of dollars into the economy through Economic inflation Law of limit. The former president did not get much credit, as voters felt pressure from the high inflation period caused by the epidemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
This week, Atlanta Federal Reserve gross domestic productWhich measures the total local GDP growth, suggested that the American economy will contract an annual rate of 2 % in the first quarter. However, this widely followed indicator can be volatile, and is severely affected by the American trade deficit, which rose in January.
Trade balance
The American goods ’trade gap rose to $ 153.3 billion in January. This was driven by the volumes of importing records, an increase of 36.2 billion dollars to 329.5 billion dollars in total, as American companies rushed to bring shipments to the country to avoid potential tariffs.
American gold imports
There was a large driver for the height of importing is the shipments of “final metal shapes”, which include gold bars. This trend is also attributed to merchants who are rushing to apply to the potential definitions of the United States. The widening trade deficit is usually in the country’s gross domestic product, because imports are offered from measurement. But since the gold purchased to sit in a cellar is not consumed or used in production, it will be excluded.
This means that the FBI is likely to exaggerate the GDP estimation in the first quarter. However, there are other signs that American economy It is cooling.
Economic inflation
Trump promised to “reduce prices, starting from the first day” and “reduce energy costs in half in 12 months after taking office.”
Official figures show that the main annual average measured by the consumer price index was 2.8 % in February, after an unexpected increase to 3 % in January from 2.9 % in December. Energy costs decreased by 0.2 % on an annual basis.
OECD Organization (OECD) He said on Monday Trump’s commercial wars have risked inflation. Inflationes in the United States increased from 2025 to 2.8 %, an increase of a previous estimate of 2.1 % made in December.
employment
The American job market has flourished in recent years, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5 % in early 2023, the lowest level since the first moon declined in 1969. The rate has increased in recent months, but it is still historically low at 4.1 %. This rapid growth has sparked the number of jobs that are added to the economy.
It also enhanced the growth of wages, and has been over inflation since early 2023, which helped families rebuild some of their lost purchasing power during the last height of living costs.
Shares
The US Securities Market has registered its highest levels in recent years. Technology shares, “Seven Magnificent” – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla – in particular, and were raised by investors who are betting on the growth of artificial intelligence.
The Biden Administration supervised the performance of a strong stock market, which helped the economic recovery from the epidemic. However, Wall Street rose after Trump’s election victory in November, amid the investor expectations for tax discounts that may increase the company’s profits. The markets were shook in the first 100 days of Trump amid concerns about his wrong approach to the economy and the threat of definitions that reach growth and inflation.
US dollar
The US dollar was rising sharply against other leading currencies, reflecting the strength of the economy and the investor’s concerns that Trump’s policies might cause inflation. The customs tariff that pays the price of imported goods and the leadership of inflation, can force the US Federal Reserve to prevent interest rates.
As inflation dropped, the Federal Reserve Reduce its standard price last year by a full percentage – out of 5.25 %, 5 % to 4.25 % and 4.5 %. High inflation can limit its ability to make more price cuts.
The slow economy can force the central bank to take measures to reduce borrowing costs. This has led to a decline in dollars in recent weeks.
Washington has always retained the policy of the “strong dollar” opinion that it supports the purchasing power of American consumers, helping to maintain low inflation. The dollar is also used as a global trade currency and confirms the financial system. The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Beesen, said this approach is not changing. But Trump has argued that the weakest dollar would benefit us by manufacturing by making exports cheaper for buyers abroad.
Input prices for manufactured products
Commercial investigative studies have shown a noticeable increase in input costs for American manufacturers, providing an early warning mark for growth and inflation. The price scale at the Institute’s Institute Management Institute (ISM) explains the ISM manufacturer for manufacturing managers (PMI), the costs of raw materials sharply at the beginning of this year, in the first signs of the difficulties of suppliers and discussions about who will pay in exchange for customs tariffs. The rise in the costs of inputs may produce the manufacture of the United States, and it is likely to be transferred to consumers in the form of higher prices for ready -made goods.
Consumer spending
Consumer spending in the United States decreased unexpectedly in January for the first time in nearly two years, with a decrease of 0.2 %, the largest decrease in nearly four years. Cold temperatures are likely to be in some parts of the country, as well as forest fires in California, have achieved spending. However, some analysts warn that consumer feelings have taken ways amid increasing concern about the strength of the economy.
