A political gamble backfired spectacularly – bringing the far right closer to power in Germany | Jörg Lau

R.It is tectonic panels that turn into German policy. A Last week, heavily The country has drowned in the event of uncertainty – not only about the results of the general election on February 23. The main parties in the throat of each other, while the extreme right -wing alternative Für Deutschland (AFD) is cheerful.

The “BrandMauer” wall against the extreme right, which was held since the end of World War II, Large cracks show. The most powerful country in Europe may enter a stage of democratic instability.

All this is the result of a stunning miscalculation by the opposition leader, Friedrich Mirz, the leader of the Christian Democrats in the center (CDU) and Frontronner to become the next advisor in Germany.

Seek to take a firm position on immigration, after a knife attack From the Afghan asylum seeker This was killed by two people, including a young child, Mirz proposed a series of measures to tighten German borders, enable federal police and rapid deportation. Opinion polls show great support, including social democracy (SPD), green and liberal voters, to restrict immigration; While a series of violent attacks, the bloodiest on a Christmas Market in DecemberHe killed six and wounded hundreds, shook the country. Mirz seems to have found a case that gave his traction in his campaign.

But then – may have been implemented through positive reactions – decided to pay two movements via Bundestag. Mirz claimed that he would not actively seek AFD voices, but would not be ashamed of the majority by supporting them. At the same time, he added a strong language against AFD in drafts, apparently to make suggestions unpalatable to them. Obviously, the idea is to increase the pressure on SPD and Greens to support its proposals.

The gambling did not succeed.

AFD leadership realizes that Mirz handed her an opportunity to divide the political center, along with CDU. Their votes helped Mirz I suggest last Wednesday, To secure a narrow parliamentary majority.

This was followed by a noise and after 48 hours, the second movement, on Friday, PassAfter a insurgency From within the ranks of Mirz and rarely intervened by the former advisor and CDU leader, Angela Merkel. To add an insult to the injury, the co -captain of AFD, Alice Wadel, publicly humiliated Mirz, which made him ridicule as a weak character who was just undermined by his party.

This episode was an unintended catastrophe: Mirz encouraged AFD and attached to his credibility. Moreover, he destroyed central taboos in German political culture after the war by breaking The rule of non -cooperation with the extreme right in any capacity. It is difficult to overestimate the importance of this moment.

It is a bad excuse that none of them was the intention of Mirz. By failing to avoid the voices of a party suspected of being an extremist organization By German intelligence agencies For the adopted immigration proposals, Mirz has undertaken not to cooperate. In November, it was publicly announced that CDU would do Do not vote with AFDAnd not even accepting the “synchronous majority” with them.

Mirz’s attempt to pressure social democrats and vegetables Opposite. Their leaders have also handed over, Olaf Schools and Robert Habik, a mobilization issue for their amazing campaigns: resistance to the normalization of Christian Democrats on the far right.

But how did we get here? Mirz is an ancient Christian democracy-a supporter of the market, a supporter of NATO, a supporter of Europe. It is not popular, nor is it nationalist or fanatic. However, in a failed attempt to blackmail the legs competition in the middle and outperforming AFD, he carried the campaign about his ability to drive and merit with confidence. What is his promise that he will not be elected as a consultant with AFD voices that are now worth?

It is important to understand that CDU and its Bavarian brother party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), not only conservative or right -wing parties like others in Western democracies.

German Christian Democrats rose from the ashes of their failed ancestors in Weimar, the national bourgeois parties that reduced the Nazis or even supported the Nazis. Conrad AdenaurHe was the first leader of CDU and the first consultant in The Bundesrepublik, very conservative but anti-fascist-and immediately directed his anti-democratic tendencies. It is true that he also combined many ancient Nazis into his party, but that followed his instincts that his former colleagues could be re -taught and redirected. Adenor will never think about forming a majority with anti -democracy forces in Parliament.

CDU, therefore, it is crucial for democratic stability for Germany. It is not correct to say that the party has a protection wall policy – the wall of protection was. It has long given a home of conservatives from all lines while drawing the line on those who deny or arrange from the Holocaust. The possibility that CDU, or cannot be, no longer contains the right -wing forces in Germany.

Almost daily, AFD calls for questioning German.Remember culture– The consensus that even faces The crimes of the Nazi past essential. It is anxious, and I recently found a strong partner in these efforts. In a video address at the AFD campaign on January 25, Elon Musk And urged the crowd It should not be restricted by “focusing a lot on the past guilt.” He spoke just hours before the eighty anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, and his appeal was “moving forward” applauded by the party believers.

Mirz – his vast party pillows – has nothing to do with this type of liberation. The criticisms against him through the leadership of Democrats during a discussion on Friday (“I have opened the gates of hell”) to the summit. He does not have dark designs to bring the far right to the government. He is honest when he says that he aims to reduce, reduce and design it.

But this makes it confused that he has made a maneuver in a position in which he depends on the forces he wants to marginalized.

Last week, the main parties in Germany showed that they could not work together. The mutual accusations have reached a level that makes it difficult to find concessions after the elections. In the German representative parliamentary system, the willingness to form alliances is necessary.

If the coalition talks between the main parties fail, Germany may go to the government of a conservative minority, which is informally adhered to the extreme right. This will destabilize not only for Germany, but for the entire continent. It depends a lot on the coming weeks. It was not too late for the center to reaffirm itself. But on the current path, we go to turbulent times.

• Jörg Lau is an international correspondent for GERMAN Weekly Die Zeit

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