The Buffalo Bills have tried to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs three times this decade. They are 0-3.
At least the Bills don’t have it A history of four consecutive disappointments In the big postseason games.
It’s easy to set the stage for a great AFC Championship game. In one corner are the Chiefs, chasing NFL history as they try to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls. The dynasty is getting stronger, with its seventh consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship.
The Bills have never won a Super Bowl, although they have been a contender the past few seasons. The Chiefs have stopped them three times. Buffalo lost to Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game four years ago, and then lost by a blow He took the lead with 13 seconds left In a sectional game three years ago, and then last season, they finally held down the Chiefs at home in a sectional game and lost that game as well.
This meeting should produce another great game. The result will change legacies on both sides.
Match
No. 2 Buffalo Bills (15-4) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
Arrowhead Stadium | Kansas City
6:30 PM ET
How to view bills in bosses
This game will be broadcast on CBS and streamed on Paramount+.
Betting odds
Bosses are favored, but not by much. Kansas City is a two-point favorite At BetMGM. The line went from Chiefs -1.5 to -2 despite 58% of bets coming on the Bills. In the first meeting between the two teams, the Bills won 31-20, with Buffalo a 2.5 home favorite. The total for the game is 47.5.
X factor
Since the beginning of August, everyone has known that Travis Kelce will not be a workhorse during the season at 35 years old, and will be saved for the playoffs. Then when it happened, everyone seemed surprised. Kelce, who had one 100-yard game all season, had 117 yards in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. It looks just like last year, when Kelce had a fairly quiet regular season and then recorded 355 yards and three touchdowns in the playoffs. Kelce had a quieter regular season in 2024, averaging a career-high 823 receiving yards while averaging a career-low 8.5 yards per catch. Before last season, when Kelce averaged 10.6 yards per catch, he had never had a season average of less than 12.2 yards. The Chiefs understood his limitations, considering How little success There have been two tight ends in his era. But based on last week, it looks like he might have enough for another big postseason push.
How can the Bills win
Last week should change the way we look at the Bills. The narrative, crafted by those who back Josh Allen over Lamar Jackson for NFL MVP, has been that the Bills are a subpar team that Allen carries. Then the Bills beat the Ravens last week with Allen having a very quiet game. Allen had just 127 yards passing and 20 yards rushing. It wasn’t bad, it’s just that the Bills had other ways to win. Realistically, Allen will play great to beat the Chiefs. He had 262 receiving yards and 55 receiving yards when the Bills beat the Chiefs again in Week 11. But the Bills are more than just Allen. The Bills’ offense transformed when they promoted Joe Brady to offensive coordinator midway through last season to run the ball more and they did that well with James Cook, who had 16 rushing touchdowns in the regular season. The Bills are not a great defensive team – 12th EPA allowed per play16th in success rate – but they are good enough to keep the team in the game. Buffalo held the Chiefs to just 259 yards rushing in the regular season meeting. Contrary to what you may have heard, the Bills are a very good all-around team. And in this game, they’ll probably also need Allen to play like an MVP to bring him home.
How can presidents win?
Apparently, the Chiefs just need to make the game close. Kansas City had a streak of 16 straight wins in one-score games, an NFL record and also a sporting miracle. While winning several close matches in a row is a bit of a lucky thing, there is a reason for it. Leaders have been exposed to many difficult situations, and they are well equipped to deal with them. This gives them a huge advantage in big matches. While the Bills carry the baggage of failures in the playoffs the past few seasons, Kansas City thrives when games get tight. The Chiefs will need to prevent Josh Allen from breaking up a lot of game-changing runs, and it would be ideal for Kansas City to have a tough running game, and it wouldn’t hurt to have someone like rookie receiver Xavier Worthy make some big plays. But the Chiefs have a huge advantage in the intangible parts of each game. That’s why every close game goes their way. The Bills better make sure they’re not close at the end.
prediction
The Bills are probably the better team in this game. Lots of analytics, e.g DVOA or EPA per playHe’ll tell you that. Buffalo won the regular season meeting. But we’ve seen too many “better teams” lose to the leaders. It’s almost pointless to extrapolate the Chiefs’ regular season results into the playoffs. Last season showed that any flaws Kansas City displays don’t matter in the end. The Chiefs find ways to win big games. So, while it makes sense to pick the Bills to win the AFC Championship and advance to their first Super Bowl in 31 years, a lot of well-intentioned and considered picks against the Chiefs in the playoffs had a familiar outcome. Chiefs 23, Bills 17
