An asteroid has a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Here’s how astronomers are tracking it
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A asteroid recently discovered, its name 2024 yr4On average, a 2 % chance to hit the Earth in 2032. While these possibilities with a minimal effect, astronomers closely follow the space rock to detect more details – a process that can soon include the strongest observatory at all launched. In space.
Dr. Paul Chaudas, director of the center, said: “It is not known about 2024 years, but the asteroid is estimated that it ranges between 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters), which is” a comparative range of a large building. “For studies of organisms near Earth, or CNEOS , In NASA’s jeta laboratory in Pasadina, California.
This is not close to the size of the asteroid “The Killer Planet”, which was criticized to Earth 66 million years ago The extinction of dinosaurs. This person was estimated at about 6.2 miles (10 km) in its diameter and discrimination is another large, well -known asteroid to strike our world. Asteroid It is a one -kilometer or larger space rock and can have a devastating effect on life.
But smaller asteroids can cause regional destruction if designed to be in a collision with the Earth, which is why astronomers need to know the greatest possible – as soon as possible – about 2024 YR4.
Getting more data, such as improving the Space Rock path, may reduce the possibilities of direct strike to scratch. But astronomers have only a certain time to monitor the asteroid before it fades from the show in April. Now, they are planning to turn the eye of James Webb Space Telescope in the direction of 2024 YR4 in the hope of determining the size and orbit of the space rock.
The possible space rock follows dangerous
The last alert system of the floor, the Atlas, and the telescope in Rio Hortado, Chile, discovered for the first time in 2024 years on December 27. The telescope is one of NASA’s asteroid discovery programs to wipe the sky in search of heaven near the pituitary word. David Versia, JPL and CNEOS navigation engineer, said via email.
The estimated size of the asteroid has not changed slightly since then, despite the multiple notes using a group of telescopes, because the space rock can only be studied using the amount of sunlight it reflects. The amount of light reflected for the asteroid surface is used to estimate its size.
However, the webb telescope, which is scheduled to start notes in 2024 YR4 in early March, sees the universe in the light of infrared. Webb will be able to measure the heat reflected by the asteroid and provide a more accurate size, according to Nature study Posted in December.
Since early January, astronomers have used the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish telescope and a very large telescope in Chile to track the asteroid, which currently exceeds more than 30 million miles (48 million km) of the ground and moved away from that time, Farnoochia said. The heavenly organism should be visible during early April and disappear as it continues its orbit around the sun.
Better in Hawaii is also followed by the asteroid’s activity. The panoramic scan and the fast response system, or the stars, located in the Halicala volcano in Maui, is a large telescope to discover organisms close to Earth. It is able to discover asteroids when they are far from the Earth, the stars are currently part of the efforts made to follow the movements of 2024 years.
“Hawaiian telescopes are one of the most important tools for planetary defense,” Doug Simons, Director of the Astronomy Institute at Hawaii University said in a statement. “Thanks to our main location and advanced technology, we can discover, track and study asteroids with incredibty accuracy. This gives scientists the time they need to assess possible threats and know the best ways to respond.”
Webb will remain able to monitor 2024 YR4 once the asteroid is outside the capabilities of watching earth European Space Agency. After the initial notes in March, a second monitoring campaign was planned for the month of May. Scientists will use this data to provide the final measurements of the asteroid’s orbit, as well as how its temperature changed as it moves from the sun.
If 2024 YR4 disappears from the show before space agencies can exclude any opportunity to influence, the space rock will remain in the risk list until it returns in June 2028. Current estimates of the asteroid orphan indicate that they return to the vicinity every four years, but it will not pose a threat in general 2028, according to Hawaii University.
Risk estimation
Understanding the exact size of the asteroid Astronomers can help estimate the risks if 2024 YR4 is determined to be in a future collision path with the Earth.
“If the asteroid at the end of the estimated volume, the effect may result in an explosion damage of up to 50 km (31 miles) from the impact site,” said Chhodas. “But this is in a state of unlikely to affect at all. The possibility of damage to high speed arises (about 17 km per second, or 38,028 miles per hour) in which the asteroid enters the atmosphere.”
Asteroids from this size affect the Earth every few thousand years, and can cause severe damage to the local areas, according to what he said. Esa.
In 1908, a 30 -meter asteroid (98 feet wide) hit the Podkamenaya Tunguska River in a remote Siberian forest in Russia, according to what he said Planetary Association. The event settled the trees and destroyed the forests by 830 square miles (2150 square kilometers).
In 2013, an asteroid at the level of 20 meters (66 feet) I entered the Earth’s atmosphere on ChelyabinskRussia. It exploded in the air, and issued from 20 to 30 times more energy The first atomic bombThe brightness generates larger than the sun, exudes heat, destroys more than 7000 buildings and injured more than 1,000 people.
But if 2024 YR4 is at the end, the effects may be much worse, according to the European Space Agency.
“If the asteroid is found on its diameter in a range of (50 meters), and if it can be confirmed that it is a rocky asteroid, the effect (2000 square kilometers) was destroyed and 20 million trees were affected,” according to a document in which the agency shares. “This is equivalent to the area of the circle (25 km). If it is larger, the effects extend to several dozens of (kilometers).”
About 3000 new creatures were found near the ground every year, but asteroids were difficult to find in the range of 2024 years because they are dark, smaller and difficult with telescopes. Scientists estimate that there are about 600,000 rock objects similar in size with the asteroid, but about 2 %, or 12000, were found, according to L. Esa.
“Small asteroids collide with the Earth all the time, disintegrate in the air as firewalks; Larry Dino, astronomer at the Institute of Astronomy at the University of Hawaii and Astronomy investigator at Atlas University, said in a statement” Fortunately, small causes little damage to the ground. ” Large asteroids cause more damage, but they affect the Earth frequently. There are still many adults that we have not yet found, and that is why we are constantly watching the entire sky to ensure our survival is at the forefront of potential threats. “
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