Asteroid 2024 YR4 has the ‘highest impact probability’ ever recorded, but that’s likely to change

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A asteroid recently discovered, its name 2024 yr4It is now the most dangerous asteroid that has been discovered ever. NASA has calculated that the space rock has a 3.1 % opportunity Whoever hit the Earth in 2032, while the Risk Assessment of the European Space Agency sits in 2.8 %.

The narrow difference is due to the use of both clutch tools to determine the asteroid and modeling of its potential effect. But both ratios rise above the chance of collision by 2.7 % as soon as they are associated with the asteroid that was discovered in 2004 called APOPHIS, making 2024 YR4 the most important space rock that is monitored during the past two decades.

It is 1148 feet (350 meters), and was previously considered one of the most dangerous asteroids, with an opportunity to hit our planet and reach 4 out of 10 on Torino’s risk scaleA tool to classify potential collision of space things with Earth. The evaluation means that an asteroid deserves the attention of astronomers and follows it. But the scientists reviewed this evaluation after an accurate analysis of the asteroid in 2021.

Scientists expect similar prediction trends with 2024 years, which is currently located on the 3rd range on the Turin scale and is estimated to range from 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters), similar to the large building.

“For asteroids of more than 30 meters (98.4 feet), 2024 years now holds the record for the highest possibility of effective effect, and the longest time spent by the possibility of influence greater than 1 %,” he said. Esa.

“It is important to note that the possibility of the increasing influence this is an expected result as we continue to improve our knowledge of the asteroid. … With more notes are made from the asteroid, the area of ​​uncertainty will continue to contradict The land is in this area, the possibility of influencing the effect will decrease to 0. “

Astronomers use many telescopes to monitor the space rock to understand its size and orbit, which is likely to reveal less opportunities for the collision of 2032 of what is showing the current data.

Risk exclusion

Richard Benzel, the inventor of the scale, said that the APOPHIS rating, which is 4 out of 4 level, has been reached, and there are currently no other known things higher than scratch than 2024 years. Binzel School Science Professor, Joint Professor of Aviation Engineering and Macvicar fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Penz said that Apophis reached 4 because it was a greater being capable of regional damage, while 2024 YR4 is 3 because it will lead to local damage.

Binzel presented to him The concept of scale At the 1995 United Nations Conference, a working group of the International Astronomical Union adopted it at a meeting in Turin, Italy – hence the name of the scale – and I published it in 1999. Penzel said he believed that a scale is needed to calculate the risks of things close to Earth, which has become increasingly detected thanks to the new asteroid reconnaissance.

“For many of these things, the uncertainty in its initial orbits will lead to accounts that result in the chances of non -zero collision over the next century,” Penz participated in his research in 1999. “The index system that puts the danger that any close approach in a context is proposed. Understanding it easily allows simple and effective communication between astronomers and the public. “

According to the Torino scale, the 2024 YR4 classification of 3 means “the current accounts give a greater or greater chance of collision capable of topical destruction. Most likely, new telescope notes will rely on the level 0. It is worth attention by the public and government officials if the meeting is less From a decade.

Penzel said it is quite normal that “the chances of influence” will bounce a little “before declining to scratch.

Fading the future

He said that part of the uncertainty lies in understanding the orbit of 2024 YR4 and its proximity to Earth in the future. Astrologists at the beginning of the four -year -old Space Rock orbit around the sun, making it difficult to determine where it will be for years or decades.

Although it is possible that the asteroid will be harmful to the ground, as Apophis is expected to do in 2029 (Matthew It is expected to study a multiple spacecraft It is, it is important for astronomers to continue to watch and track the asteroid to collect more data, and Binzel emphasized that they are “in the job.”

Using the noodles as a reference to the Italian scale that created it, Benzel like uncertainty about the site of the asteroid’s future to the long pasta that extends across the moon’s orbit around the earth.

“The Earth occurs only under this pasta, and the part that the Earth occupies is the possibility of influence,” Benzel said in an email. “More data on the asteroid shrinks pasta. With pasta shrinking, but still includes the Earth, it can make the calculated probability rise. In the end, we will write down the asteroid’s position to the location of one pill. Most of the grains will not be on the head of the earth. Be further than the moon.

The asteroid was discovered after passing the Earth in December, and after April, it will not be visible again until June 2028, when it is expected to fly by our planet again.

“In the farthest, YR4 will be near Jupiter’s orbit,” Benzel said. “YR4 represents a challenge because it is small and goes away. Telescopes on the floor can follow it for another few months. Then we will call (James Web Telescope for space) in the service to follow it more, if necessary.”

Webb is expected to start monitoring the asteroid in March to help astronomers determine the orbit and size of the space rock.

“While certainty for 2024 years is missing, the Earth is the result that we expect, it does not tell us. Benzel said that in order for nature to decide.” In fact, nature has already chased the question. We do not know this answer yet. For this reason our tracking efforts continue. “

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