California‘s 59 billion dollars in the agricultural industry Prepare for turmoil Donald TrumpThe customs tariff continues to increase tensions and cause economic turmoil with China – one of the largest buyers in the state.
California is the baking basket in the country, as it saves nearly a third of American vegetables and 75 % of fruits and nuts. But it also exports many of its products – approximately $ 24 billion in 2022. This means Farmers in The state can lose greatly with the imposition of China Revenge definitions on American goods.
The threat of another long trade war has increased uncertainty in an industry where decisions must be made long before the harvest or sales. It is difficult for producers to decide to execute or keep dairy cows from their herds, the Rip factories tend for years of soil or a seed of grapes from their pastures.
Already struggle with The harsh weather events that have harmed or destroyed crops And water restrictions that added challenges, a group of Trump policies – including attacks on agricultural research, a Freezing billions financing From the US Department of Agriculture, and reports of migrant workers – she left farmers to reel.
“The uncertainty may be more problematic than the tariff itself,” said Zakari Williams, Sales Manager of Stewart and Jasper Orkardes in Newman, California. “Understanding about whether there will be, or will not be, a little more difficult to plan.”
The case severely affects California Almond farmers, who collectively export nearly three quarters of what they grow. Almost 76 % of almonds that are eaten around the world currently come from the state, but Australia, the second largest producer, can meet the needs of countries who are not willing to pay higher prices.
The repercussions of the first trading war of Trump are still in the minds of many farmers and farmers in Golden, when they were severely retaliated.
“The first trade war was a catastrophe for agriculture in California, especially walnut exports – tree walnuts – and never recovered,” said Colin Carter, an honorary professor of agricultural economics at the University of California, Davis. He added: “The prices of pistachios and almonds began to bounce only, but now the definitions are higher.”
The expansion of the almond area stopped during the first trade war, and the grove of walnuts from the ground. Carter said: “Many farms were offered for sale, and bankruptcy has affected some processors, which also affected the farms,” Carter said.
This trade war caused a loss of $ 27 billion in US agriculture. California tree farmers were among the most difficult strikes, with losses at $ 880 million, according to the 2022 analysis by the University of California University in Davis.
Few seen a full recovery, even with a $ 12 billion federal aid package for American farmers. Although almond prices have decreased by more than a dollar on a pound, “California farmers were largely left of government compensation plans,” Carter and his colleagues found an analysis published late last year. He said that the farmers in the Middle West received the largest part of the federal subsidies.
This time, Carter said, it may be worse. A new trade war can It costs 6 billion dollars per year Wipe a quarter of California agricultural exports. “This will have a ripple effect throughout the state, from large almond orchards in the central valley to small chrome farms scattered throughout the wine country,” according to Carter analysis.
Officials at the US Department of Agriculture hinted that the administration may be Providing aid money to the affected farmers Once again, the federal government may not be in a position to provide the most support or recovery tools if the Trump administration continues to reduce employees, programs and budgets.
Almond farmers are well aware of the risks. “They are closely monitoring the effects” from both the revenge fees and American definitions that can affect the imported materials on which the industry depends.
They also have farmers defenders He pushed officials to move with caution.
“The almonds are still the best agricultural export in California, 5.8 billion dollars in 2024, which confirms its importance for both national national and national economies,” wrote Alexei Rodriguez in March.
He said: “When the US tariff is imposed, the resulting revenge definitions can significantly disrupt the exports of almonds in the United States, control the prices of farms, and transfer the market share to competitors,” noting that California almonds contributes more than $ 9 billion to the state’s economy.
But even with Trump observing grave dangers with cultivation in California in his attempts to reformulate global markets, a few of them in this industry criticize his actions visible. Instead, many farmers focus on their confidence that the president will come up with promises of the campaign to provide more water for thirsty crops, even with increasing supplies.
One almond requires More than one gallon of water to grow The trees must be irrigated throughout the year. Nuts are controversial in the case of dry drought, as organizers control underground groundwater. Meanwhile, farmers face more severe fines and drawings, as well as challenges to keep their orchards.
Along the 5 High Highway, there is still a street wandering in the heart of the AG land in California, and large signs indicate the region’s support for Trump and its anger against water restrictions. The sprawling agricultural lands around the state valley in the state remain a bright red belt in a deep blue condition.
Carter said he found her paradox. Definitions can be proven More expensive than the last devastating drought in California.
Carter said: “The president says he supports agriculture, but these commercial wars send an opposite sign,” Carter said. “We see that now. He is coming again. Foreign countries know the goods targeting.”
The Associated Press contributed to reporting
