Welcome everyone! Maybe you noticed that it had passed some time My last news messages. This is because I was on vacation during the past three months – and I will be on vacation for most of the next three – but I wanted to check with some ideas and programming notes.
Since he asked few of you: Yes, the tendency passes. The newsletter will prevent women in reserve when I return to work, and there is no need to say, there is a lot to cover it. This is not an ordinary moment in American political history.
Here are some topics in my mind so far:
The general reaction to Trump’s second state
One of the polls of the usual jobs to the most profound issues regarding the executive authority is likely to be attitudes towards President Trump, the subject of the year.
To this end, my colleagues have already started collecting the polls on Approval classification (We will add plans with the average polling in the coming weeks).
Indeed, Mr. Trump wasted honeymoon after the elections. His approval classification has returned to less than 50 percent, with more Americans from approving his performance. This places his place more or less as it was before the elections.
There are valid reasons for the belief that its classifications will continue to slip. One of the best thumb rules in American policy is that public opinion tends to shift against the direction of changing politics. Some political scientists call this “thermal public opinion”, as the public raises AC to calm things when the government begins to run. A few presidents run the government hot like Mr. Trump, and there is no great reason to believe that he will reject anything on his own.
2024 elections and a new era
The 2024 elections may seem to be old news, but it will hesitate for years to come. We have clearly entered a new era of politics, and me Written in DecemberAnd there will be no way to understand the place where things are going without understanding the tremendous changes in the past decade.
During the next month or so, we will finally get the few important pieces of data in the 2024 elections. Most importantly, we will have a comprehensive account for those who voted exactly, based on voter registration records. We will also have most of the results by PrecINCT (my colleagues were publishing a Detailed map Of these results).
Along with the polls in Times/Siena, it will be sufficient to provide our best answers to the prominent major questions, such as the role of turnout, how the demographic groups have turned, and why their modest surveys surveyed Mr. Trump. We will do our best to analyze the most surprising transformations in the elections, from young Spanish origin to the Tiktok influence and the new silicon valley.
Democrats
Mr. Trump He did not win 2024 elections in a wide margin, but the Democrats suffered an extraordinary defeat.
After all, Mr. Trump – a criminal, was not and then sought to cancel his previous election – a famous candidate. Exit survey Find Only 46 percent had a favorable view of it, compared to 53 percent who had an unfavorable vision. To be honest: he won because the voters believed that the Democrats were worse.
The implicit meaning, as we wrote Before the electionsIt is that the Democrats may have lost a landslide if they faced more typical Republican. With the exceptions of abortion and democracy (republics of private goals), the Democrats have comprehensively lost elections in every other issue. Democrats have not faced such a challenge since 1980.
Discussions on the future of Democrats have already started. There are a few angles of the novel, such as Call For the policy of “Al -Wafra”, my colleague was written on the side of opinion, Ezra Klein. But most discussions were just another reformulation of the repeated discussion between the party’s moderates and progressive. This time, it is difficult to see how either side can argue that it has answers to the main problems facing the party.
Democrats also face a more urgent challenge: how to respond to Mr. Trump, who is likely to do more to form the future of Democrats more than anything they do themselves.
This will be a big topic this year. The next democratic presidential campaign is not far away as it may seem today; New York Democratic Democratic race is already ongoing.
The next electoral calendar
This is what appears to be: special elections, Virginia and New Jersey elections for rulers in November and run to the middle of next year.
I am not sure that this will be the most or two of the elections. We have already seen enough over the first eight years of Trump’s era – including The first special elections From his current term – to be confident that the Democrats will be good. We have also seen enough to know that Democrats can perform well in these types of competitions Without necessarily translating For better opportunities in the presidential elections.
We will talk more about this in the newsletter on Tuesday, which was timid to the Supreme Court in Wisconsin race In particular Congress elections In Florida.
The bottom line: Democrats may face dangerous questions about their identity and mission, but perhaps it will not prevent them from spreading great victories over the next few years.
