The global heating pace has been reduced, according to the world of the famous climate James HansenWho said the 2c international goal is “dead”.
The new analysis conducted by Hansen and his colleagues concludes that both the impact of modern cuts on blocking the freight pollution, which sparked temperatures and climate allergies to increase fossil fuel emissions greater than thought.
Independent experts said that the results of the group at the end of estimates from the prevailing climate science, but cannot be excluded. If this is true, this means that the harsh weather will come sooner and more risky by passing global turning points, such as the collapse of critical Atlantic currents.
Hansen, at the University of Colombia in the United States, seemed to be alarm about the general people about the collapse of the climate A certificate presented to the United Nations Congress Committee In 1988.
He said: “The international governmental board of climate change (IPPC) has set a scenario that gives 50 % an opportunity to keep warming under 2c – this scenario is impossible now.” “The 2c target has died, because the use of global energy rises, and it will continue to rise.” The new analysis said that global heating is likely to reach 2c by 2045, unless solar geological engineering is published.
In 2015, the countries of the world in Paris pledged to maintain a global temperature less than 2c higher than pre -industrial levels and follow up efforts to restrict them to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The climate crisis is already High -charging weather all over the world With only 1.3 ° C of heating on average in recent years, the destruction of lives and livelihoods – 2c will be much worse.
Professor Jeffrey Sax also said at the University of Colombia: “A terrible rise in warming has been displaced, a decrease in pollutants, but we now have a new basis line and a path for what we are in,” said Professor Jeffrey Sax, also at Columbia University.
Climate Dr. Zik HosfathWho was not part of the study, he said it was a useful contribution. It is important to emphasize that these two cases – [pollution cuts] The sensitivity of the climate – are areas of deep scientific uncertainty.
In the new study, Posted in Environmental Magazine: Science and Politics for Sustainable DevelopmentHansen said: “Failure to evaluate climate and failure to summon the current policies of the global warming spot is not useful for young people.” They said that the IPCC analysis was largely dependent on computer models and that the complementary approach they took to take advantage of notes and climate isotopes from the distant past.
The world has seen Unusual temperatures over the past two years. The main reason is A climb that is uncompromising in it In Co2 Emishes of fossil fuel burning. The peak of the climate cycle in the Nyneo phenomenon in 2024 added an additional batch of temperature.
However, these two factors do not completely explain the maximum temperatures, or their stability after the end of Nenio in mid -2014. This is the left. Climate scientists are confused The question about whether there is a new worrying factor that has not been calculated before, or whether the additional heat is an unusual but temporary contrast.
The main focus on emissions from shipping was. For decades, sulfate molecules produced by ships that burn fuel some sunlight were prevented from reaching the surface of the Earth and suppressing temperatures. But in 2020, new regulations to combat inflammation entered into force, sharply reduced the level of atmosphere molecules. This led to More heat from the sun that reaches the surfaceWhich are measures by scientists as a square death (w2).
The Hansen team’s grade of the effect of this – 0.5W/M2 – is much higher than five other recent studies, which ranged between 0.07 to 0.15 W/m2, but it explains the anomalous heat. The Hansen team used an approach from top to bottom, given the change in reflexivity on the main parts of the ocean and design it to cuts in the freight emissions. Other studies used the approach from the base to the top to estimate the increase in heat.
“Both rituals are useful and often complementary,” said Dr. Javin Schmidt, director of the Godard Institute for Space Studies in NASA. “But in this case, I believe that Hansen’s approach is very simple and does not treat changes in Chinese emissions, or internal variation.”
The new study also argues that the planet’s climate sensitivity to the high carbon emissions has been reduced, partly due to the reducing the effect of low charging emissions. Climate sensitivity is defined by scientists as a high temperature that may result from double CO2 Air levels. Again, Hansen used a different way for most scientists and a higher grade.
IPCC, a cooperation among climate scientists in the world, found that computer models that multiply previous temperatures have a best way from an atmosphere of 2.5 ° C to 4C. The Hansen team took a simplest approach, and the possible scope calculating the temperature to double CO2 Then use data about the amount of heat that the Earth tracked to estimate the most likely climate sensitivity. Their appreciation is 4.5C. Forming the cloudWhich is affected by global heating and atmosphere pollution, is a major source of uncertainty.
abnormality High temperatures lasted in January 2025Which set a new record for this month and confusing expectations that the temperatures will decrease with the current Neenia, the cooler part of the Nino cycle. Hausfather said: “This unexpected record may be looked at the top temperatures this year that many of us believe,” Hausfather said.
The Hansen Group also argues that the rapid global heating they expect will increase the melting of the ice in the Arctic. As a result, it is possible that the closing of the circulating circulating circulation from the Atlantic length (AmOC) during the next twenty to 30 years, unless the measures are taken to reduce the phenomenon of global warming-in contradiction to the iPCC. The main problems including sea surface levels that reach several meters – thus, we are the closure of Amoc closed as “the point of return”. AmoC collapse timing It was 2050.
However, Hansen said that the point of no return can be avoided, based on the increasing condemnation of young people that they must follow the flag. He called for carbon fees and profit distribution policy, where taxes are imposed on all types of fossil fuels and revenue to the public. “The basic problem is that waste of fossil fuels are still immersed in the air for free,” he said. It also supported the rapid development of nuclear energy.
Hansen also supported research on land cooling using controversial geological engineering techniques to prevent sunlight, which is preferred to call “purposeful global cooling”: “We do not recommend implementing climate interventions, but we suggest that young people do not prevent the capabilities and restrictions of purposeful global cooling in the Special Tool Fund With them.
A political change is needed to achieve all these measures, and Hansen said: “Special interests have assumed a lot of power in our political systems. In democratic countries, power must be with the voter, not with people who have money. This requires reforming some of our democracies, Including the United States.
