Study says climate change made conditions that fed California wildfires more likely, more intense

WASHINGTON (AP)-A scientific study found that the climate change caused by a person increased the possibility and intensity of hot, dry and wind conditions that sparked the fire of the recent destroyed southern California fires.

But countless reasons that enter the amazing fires are complicated, so the level The beginnings of global warming In weeks of burning, it looks relatively small compared to previous studies of fatal heat waves, floods and droughts by the international team in Global weather support. On Tuesday, a very fast report for Peer-Review has so far found that global warming has strengthened the possibility of high weather conditions in fires this month by 35 % and 6 % intensity.

Once in the contract, the Santa Anna winds are strong in the nodes, a dry fall that followed two years, which caused rapid growth in the flammable champar, hot weather, dry air and weak houses in the areas exposed to the fire, all of which were factors in Fast fires that destroyed thousands of homes and killed at least 29 peopleThe authors of the study said. However, the climate support team was only able to determine the issues that dealt with the fire weather index, which are the luxury conditions that add the danger.

Fire weather indicator – Which include past rains, humidity and wind speed – is the place where the team seemed and found signs of climate change that they could read.

The team used notes on the previous weather and computer simulation that compared what happened this month with a world if it was 1.3 ° C (2.3 ° C) of the climate change caused by the human being that the earth had been since the industrial times. They were allowed to reach an account to contribute to warming in the disaster. It is a way The National Academy of Sciences says it is valid. Although these rapid studies have not yet been reviewed from peers, almost all of them are later published in magazines that peers reviewed without major changes.

“The number (35 %) does not seem much” because unlike dozens of its previous studies, the team looked at a small area and measured by the complex meteorology in the weather index, which generally means that there will be great doubts. Otto, climate scientist at the London Empire College. But in this case, the fingerprint of climate change is great enough to stand out.

These conditions are part, which makes California attractive to 25 million people.

Southern California has “some of the best climate, the best weather on this planet – except when you get a set of conditions that occurred here,” said Apatzoglu. With dry fuel and ignition, it is the ideal recipe for fire disasters. “

Abatzoglou said it is similar to a set of keys – dryness, fuel, high temperatures, winds and ignition – which must be operated “in order to take off.” Park Williams, a co -author, a co -author, a co -author, a firefighter at the University of California, Los Angeles, added.

The study also found that the California drought season increased by 23 days, and the lack of rain in October, November and December was more than twice now from pre -industry times, but because of the restrictions imposed on data, the researchers could not statistically and Otto could determine each of Climate change and fires specified this month. But she said, “The rain is decreasing-this is due to the change of the human climate.”

then Add strong winds For a fire and spread fire.

One of the keys to the extinguishing season extends for a longer period and “increasing the opportunity in which the fire will begin during the winds of the rush of Santa Anna.”

The search was unable to determine the amount of climate change specifically, if any, on the winds of Santa Anna.

Craig Clements, climate scientist and director of forest fire study at San Jose State University, said that the rapid study is logical and suitable for previous research on other fires.

“It is difficult to attribute the climate change to every fire event as many do,” said Clemens, who was not part of the research. “If we can say with confidence that drought is caused by climate change, this is a fingerprint.”

If the world heats up 1.3 ° C from now, the study said that people should expect the type of weather conditions that led to another 35 % fires.

Otto said this is not the issue of politics, but rather science.

“It is not something by which you can say that this was because California did something very wrong. They did a lot of things correctly. Otto said:“ They have done some things they could do better. ”But what makes these fires more. Risk, and what is the thing that the California government alone cannot do anything about changing a human climate. And potholes, children’s training will make this much worse. “

___

Read more AP climate coverage in http://www.appnyws.com/climate-and-environment

___

Follow Seth Borenstein on X in Borenbears