Dangerous temperatures could kill 50% more Europeans by 2100, study finds | Extreme weather

Dangerous temperatures may kill 50 % of people in Europe by the end of the century, a Ticket It was found, with the loss of souls to a stronger heat, which is expected to exceed the number of those rescued from the most moderate cold.

The researchers estimated that 8,000 additional people will die every year as a result of “optimal temperatures” even in light of the most optimistic scenario to cut the pollution of the planet. The most secure scenario showed that they considered a net increase of 80,000 deaths associated with temperature annually.

The results challenge a common argument among those who say global heating is useful for society because less people will die of cold weather.

“We wanted to test this,” said Pierre Masselot, a statistical at the London College of Health and Tropical Medicine and a leader in the study of the study. “And we clearly show that we will see a net increase in the temperature -related deaths.”

The study depends on previous research in which scientists have linked the temperature to death rates for different age groups in 854 cities across Europe. They collected these with three climate scenarios that plan the potential changes in the structure of the population and the temperature throughout the century.

In all the three scenarios, they found that uncomfortable temperatures would kill people more than they do today. Scientists have warned that the uncertainty in the data is great.

The death toll is expected to rise in clear death in southern Europe, especially around the Mediterranean, with a second hot point in Central Europe covering Switzerland, Austria and parts of southern Germany and Poland. In northern cold Europe, at the same time, a slight decrease in death is expected.

“In Norway, for example, we may see a very simple benefit,” said Masselot. “[But this] This huge increase we see in the southern countries completely overwhelmed him. “

Heat and cold of silent killers who harm the body well before they reach the maximum extent that cause low body temperature and heat beating. Excess deaths rise during heat waves, especially among people who are aged or patient, as hot weather forces their bodies to excessive excess and prevent them from comfort. The cold attacks raise blood pressure and contribute to a group of heart and lung problems.

“Frankly, the increase in hot weather will kill more people more than the cold weather will save,” said Tim Osborn, climate scientist at East Anglia, who did not participate in the research. “Although this new study is not the final statement in this regard … it opens a new floor by checking the weakness of people in severe temperatures according to age and city to a much better level of details than previous work.”

The analysis, which was limited to European cities, did not think in rural areas, which expose the least exposed to the influence of the urban heat island, or other parts of the planet, where the heat is a more urgent problem. In total, they estimated that the high heating scenario would lead to additional 2.3 million people died of dangerous temperatures in Europe between 2015 and 2099.

Madeleine Thompson, an expert in climate and health at the Wilcum Research Charity Foundation, said that the number of deaths was just one of the risk of high temperatures. “It kills extreme heat but also causes a wide range of serious health problems. It has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, miscarriage and mental health.”

Menkro Climate Science against Pollution Colds has argued on the basis that global heating will save lives, because the cold kills more people from heat. Scientists say that different response rates of temperature changes mean that thermal deaths will rise much faster than cold deaths, Especially in higher temperatures.

“There are also legitimate arguments that this pure effect is of limited importance only,” said Eric Fischer, the climate scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (Ethas), who did not participate in the study. “If a new medicine has serious side effects that leads to countless deaths, then I barely claim that the drug saves many lives, or that the pure effect may be slightly positive in the short term despite the many deaths.”

The study explored how life could be saved if people are adapted with temperature changes and reduced their exposure to uncomfortable temperatures. The study found that the “most hot” adjustment levels, only “unreasonable” adjustment levels that can cut the growing net deaths. In carbon pollution scenarios, low temperature rates by 50 % were sufficient for net deaths.

“The good news is that we can adapt.” “Adaptation begins with relatively simple solutions – although it is not free – such as fixing air conditioning or creating spaces that work as climate shelters.”

He added: “But we must also address more complex solutions – such as increasing green areas in cities to alleviate the urban heat island – and adapting health systems.”