Trump tariffs will send global trade into reverse this year, warns WTO | Trump tariffs

Donald Trump’s tariff will send international trade to the opposite direction this year, which disturbs global economic growth, World Trade Organization to caution.

In its last snapshot in the global trading system, the Geneva -based organization says it has previously expected the merchandise trade by 2.7 % healthy this year. As a result of Washington’s commercial policy, you now expect a 0.2 % decrease.

Providing expectations, Director of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Eyala, she said she was particularly concerned about the United States “dismantling” and ChinaAnd described it “a phenomenon that is concerned for me.”

She said that trade between geopolitical competitors is 81-91 % without exemptions for technical products such as smartphones-saying that this was “a separation of the two economies” and will have “long-term consequences.”

OKonjo-Eyala said that the World Trade Organization was collecting its member states about whether it would hold an emergency meeting to discuss the situation.

In its report, the organization says: “The view of global trade has deteriorated sharply due to an increase in definitions and uncertainty in commercial policy.”

I have previously expected Global GDP growth by 2.8 % for 2025, but it is now expected 2.2 % weaker.

The United States imposed 10 % definitions on all imports, with much higher rates for China with a total of 145 %, and on specific sectors including cars and steel. The World Trade Organization expects that the largest impact of politics will be a sharp decrease in trade with the United States – as other regions are still expected to suffer from growth.

Trump’s tariff was much greater It stopped last week for 90 days After a violent reaction in the financial markets. The World Trade Organization warns that if it is re -imposed after the gap, it will have a much greater impact, causing a 0.8 % decrease in the trade of global commodities.

If this is followed by an increase in “uncertainty in commercial policy” around the world, as other countries adjust their policies in response, the World Trade Organization indicates that the effects will be 1.5 % larger in trade. In this worst scenario, the World Trade Organization predicts the growth of the weakest gross domestic product, by only 1.7 %.

After the Trump’s “Tahrir Day” tariff was announced on April 2, followed by a series of contradictory data sometimes from Washington, the World Trade Organization warns that uncertainty in itself is an important contributor to the risk of slowdown.

“Understanding enhances the increasing wisdom of decision -making,” says the World Trade Organization, noting evidence that “uncertainty in commercial policy can be discouraged, among other things, work confidence, and reduces commercial investment, and thus weak economic growth.”

“In the end, the degree in which the uncertainty can be managed by companies will be a major specified about whether the positive economic momentum that was observed in 2024 is translated into continuous global commercial growth in the coming years,” he added.

The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank also warned of the possible shock of trade against the war of tariffs.

Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank, said that the increased uncertainty would lead to a slower global growth than expected.

Speaking to the meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington next week, the world’s developing countries urged negotiating with neighbors and the United States to reduce the customs tariff, adding, “The sooner we do so, the better.”

Panga said that the definitions were often higher in the developed world and are linked to the function of the use of external sources from industrialized countries. He said that this economic model has stopped developing independent and more flexible countries.

The World Trade Organization predicts some “transformation” of trade, as Beijing seeks new markets for its goods outside the United States. Chinese exports are expected to expand to regions outside North America by 4 % and 9 %, in 2025.

The service trade has not been struck directly through the Trump tariff, but the World Trade Organization expects to be affected indirectly. “The decreases caused by the customs tariff in the trade of goods weaken the demand for relevant services such as transportation and logistical services, while the broader uncertainty weakens the estimated travel spending and slows the services related to investment.”

The World Trade Organization is working as monitoring global trading rules, and it previously presented a forum to negotiate international trade deals – but its role has become an increasing question in recent years, with the slowdown of the progress of globalization.

The Trump tariff was completely ignored on the base of the “most preferred nation” that is the basis for the system supervised by the World Trade Organization-which means that the commercial advantages offered to a member of the country must extend to everyone.

China urged the World Trade Organization to investigate the impact Trump’s tariff. Beijing said in a statement to the World Trade Organization last week.