R.He is drifting Black voters are far from the Democratic Party as a test 2024 elections. in GeorgiaIt is difficult to miss the Kamala Harris campaign concern. One night in Atlanta, she published Mogults Moguls to run the “Brothas and Brews” event. Then she issued “Agenda of Opportunities for Black Men”, promised to provide more commercial loans, protect the cryptocurrency and give legitimacy to marijuana. To pressure her closing arguments, Mrs. Harris sits with Charlaman, Thaa Allah and other influencers.
Four years ago, Mr. Biden won the state with a razor of 11,779 votes. If the turnout remains constant this year, such a gap between black voters will reach 139,000 votes for Mrs. Harris.
Donald Trump’s allies flow when it opens early vote in Georgia: “Over the past three and a half years, Democrats have not given a curse on black men unless they did not die or gay” roast on the stage in a mass rally Mr. Trump On October 15. In the crowded audience, the black men stood up to the suits and clapped as white women looked, cheerful. Liberalists can seem famous for the reason for some black voters turning into Mr. Trump, but often trash are transported through the same issues that other supporters constitute: jobs and re -investing at home. “You can not finance other countries if your backyard is burning,” says Kirsen Harris, a 22 -year -old security guard who plans to vote for Mr. Trump.
Mr. Biden’s narrow victory in Georgia, the first by a Democrat since 1992, was one of the most prominent results in the 2020 elections. She announced that Democratic presidential candidates can compete again in old Dicksie after years of most often unproductive. Stacy Abrams, a influential prophet of the transformation, was a democratic politician who argued for years that the state was mature to flip. She told national Democrats in 2019 that anything less than full investment in Georgia “will be a strategic misbehave.”
Stacy Abrams, which was photographed in the backyard of her in Decaator, Georgia.
Photo: Rita Harper
Why was she right? In the two decades until 2020, Georgia’s population grew by 1.9 million. Nearly half of this growth came from black voters-the largest percentage in black voters in any state. New voters came mostly from New York and Florida, but also in the Caribbean and Africa region. They have strengthened the firm black elites in the state. Black voters born out of Georgia are now more than twice that the indigenous indigenous people will obtain a university degree. This was a dual feature of Democrats, who are increasingly dependent on educated voters in the college and minorities.
Georgia, black as a % of the population
By Track Track, 2022
A share of total votes
By black voters, 2020, %
Sources: Catalest. Openstreetmap; Federal Electoral Committee; Re -divide the departments to the data center; Economic
Georgia, black as a % of the population
By Track Track, 2022
Class of the total votes made by black voters, 2020, %
Sources: Catalest. Openstreetmap; Federal Electoral Committee; Re -divide the departments to the data center; Economic
Georgia, black as a % of the population
A share of the total votes made by black voters,
2020, %
Sources: Catalest. Openstreetmap; Federal Electoral Committee;
Re -divide the departments to the data center; Economic
Now Mr. Biden’s achievement lies in 2020 on the edge of a knife. If Mrs. Harris does not coincide with Mr. Biden’s share of black vote, she will need to compensate for votes between white voters, who distort the republic. But while Mr. Biden won 30 % of the white sounds in Georgia, Mrs. Harris polls show only one point, by 31 %. If this result is proven accurate, it can withstand only two degrees Celsius with black voters, not the ten explained in the current opinion polls.
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Democratic conflicts with black voters are not new, or confined to Georgia. The party’s presidential candidates won an average of 87.5 % of the black voices between 1984 and 2004. Barack Obama changed the equation and won 96 % in 2008. Democratic strategy. Since 2012, the Democrats have returned to the pre -OBA base. Black support fell to 90 % by 2020, but an increase in that year – 200,000 other black voters in Georgia, in particular – declined. More black sounds even with a little lower margin have given the Democrats a great net profit. Mrs. Harris’s warning is that opinion polls show her the slightest share of any democratic candidate for decades. Patriotic Economist/Yougov surveys have 83.5 %, while other opinion polls find its share is low to 78 %.
Jobs in their minds
The decrease in the participation rate this year can exacerbate the problem of Mrs. Harris. In 2020, Georgia had two races in the Senate that attracted the national attention and eventually set the control of the Chamber. This time, there are no contests at the state level to motivate voters who make fun of presidential candidates. It appears that the black migration that helped the Democrats win in 2020 has slowed down. Data from L2, an analysis company, which includes 187,000 voters who have moved to Georgia since 2020 only 24 % of the lions, showed half the share of those who came before.
Source: Yougov/Economic
Perhaps the most surprising advantage in the sophisticated black voter view is that black youth see the least importance in the movement of civil rights more than their parents’ generation. Only 65 % of black men who are under the age of 30 says, civil rights are a very important issue for them, compared to 84 % of those over the age of now a cavity and calm. “Thinking about racist policy is a luxury,” says one of the Black Millenniums working in Georgia’s policy. “These days young people are more concerned about jobs.”
She says that Mrs. Abrams believes that this is a problem in the correspondence-as the future accidents of black men and their access to jobs “are civil rights issues in nature.” It argues that the idea that black voters are moving away from the Democrats is “induction that there was no justification yet,” especially since the polling indicates that black women are strongly driven by Mrs. Harris.
Mrs. Abrams and her peers are confident that Harris’s campaign can challenge opinion polls. “We have seen some similar smoothness two years ago and we ended up closing this gap,” says Lauren Jero Warrow, who has been working in Georgia for a long time. Political scientists have shown that narrow black societies have imposed political rules strictly, to include the vote for democratic candidates, even though conservative tendency has become more popular. Retired black voters may be persuaded by Trump to support Mrs. Harris by priests and women in their extended families. If they expressed his support for Mr. Trump, “loudly in black spaces, research indicates that he will not go undisputed,” says Andra Gilbeis, a political scientist at Emory University. You think most of them will eventually break Harris.
Top: Thomas Anderson, 36, does not vote this year, partly because “our voices do not care.” It considers job creation the most important issue. The bottom: William Owen, a 54 -year -old seller for Fritto Lay, tends to vote in favor of Kamala Harris. He grew up in housing in the council and sees housing at reasonable prices as the issue of the most important elections.
Photo: Rita Harper
At Fade Away Cutz in southern Atlanta Richard Wright, he was one of the mayors of Atlanta and his name for the Black Author, getting a clear shave. He and his barber, both in middle age, are skeptical on the left but say they vote for Mrs. Harris. They are concerned about the younger men who intend to support Mr. Trump – and about the repercussions of the campaigns with the voters who resemble them. “If Trump wins, you will have to move,” says Wright.■
This article appeared in the United States section of the printed edition entitled “Get Drift”
