Last week, Elon Musk indicated for the first time that the Ministry of Government Agency was less than its goal.
Precedent He said Its strong team to reduce the budget can reduce the federal budget for the next fiscal year by a trillion dollars, and this is done by September 30, at the end of the current fiscal year. Instead, at a cabinet meeting on Thursday, Mr. Musk said that he expected the group to provide about 150 billion dollars, or 85 percent less than its goal.
Even this number may be very high, according to the New York Times analysis of Duji’s claims.
This is because, when Mr. Musk Group provides its savings so far, it inflated its progress by including the errors of one billion dollars, by calculating the spending that will not happen in the coming fiscal year-and during the conduct of guesses about spending that may not happen at all.
In fact, one of the largest claims of the group includes canceling a contract that does not exist. Although the government says it only requested proposals in this case, and did not settle on a seller or price, Mr. Musk Group ignored this uncertainty and appointed itself a large and very specific amount to cancel it.
She saved exactly 318,310,328.30 dollars.
Mr. Musk Group has now raised a mass fire Through the government, and sharp Discounts In humanitarian aid around the world. Mr. Musk justified these turmoil with two promises: that the group will be transparent, and that it will achieve discounts in the budget that others called impossible.
Now, to see the group that restores its goals and opens its progress, some of its allies have become doubtful about both.
“They are only going on their wheels, referring to many excessive cases or fake savings,” said Romina Bukia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Tahrir Institute. “The most frustrating thing is that we agree with their goals. But we are watching them flying in their achievement.”
Mr. Musk Group did not answer questions about its allegations sent via X, the social media platform. Mr. Musk previously admitted The group may make mistakes But he said they would be corrected.
The White House press office defended the team, saying that he had gathered “huge accomplishments”, but he refused to address specific cases as the group seemed to have inflated its progress.
Mr. Musk has already promised to reduce last year. When the supporter of Mr. Trump was the most prominent in the campaign’s path, he said he could reduce 2 trillion dollars From the federal budget About 7 trillion dollars. After the election of Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk’s group began its work, Mr. Musk reduced this goal 1 trillion dollars.
Even after Mr. Musk’s comments at the cabinet meeting on Thursday, a White House official indicated that this goal has not changed.
The budget analysts were skeptical of these claims, saying it would be difficult To reduce this amount without more disrupting government services, or significantly changing popular benefits programs such as Medicare and Social Security.
Mr. Musk Group presented online Professor’s book One of its budget discounts, which it calls the “receipt wall”. The site was last updated on Tuesday, to show “estimated savings” of $ 150 billion.
Professor’s book is full of negligence and faults.
While Mr. Musk said on Thursday that his group will save $ 150 billion in the fiscal year 2026 alone, the site does not say explicitly when his savings are achieved. The site also does not give details of the selection of about $ 92 billion of its demanding savings, which exceeds 60 percent of the total.
The remainder of the savings is detailed, and it is attributed to the cancellation of grants, contracts, or contracts of specific federal offices. But these detailed lists have been afflicted with data errors, which the group’s savings swelled by billions.
Mr. Musk group deleted some of its original mistakes, such as the entries threefold The same savings, demanding that Confused “billion” and “million,And the elements that demand credit to cancel the contracts that have ended when George WW Bush He was president.
However, some errors remain expensive.
The second largest savings that the group recounts on its site from the contract of the canceled tax department says Dog is saving $ 1.9 billion. But the contract he cited was It has already been canceled When Joseph R. Biden Junior as president. The third largest savings invite the group come from a cancelled grant to a non -profit vaccine. Mr. Musk Group says this saved $ 1.75 billion. But non -profit organizations said It has been completely paidSo the savings were $ 0.
In other cases, detailed claims include “savings” that will not occur in the fiscal year 2026 – or may not occur at all.
They start with the largest individual savings on the group’s website. Mr. Musk team says it provided $ 2.9 billion by canceling a huge shelter in West Texas to house migrant children who crossed the border alone.
This number is pumped by assuming things that may never happen, according to the New York Times analysis of federal contract data and interviews with people familiar with this contract who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to discuss it with media members.
One of the assumptions was that the government would renew the contract every year for another three years. Another is that the shelter would have held hundreds of children every day from 2023 to 2028, which leads to a high rate of payment.
These two assumptions seem less than guaranteed, given that the number of unaccompanied children immigrants began to decline last year. Throughout the country, she was a shelter like this Empty Even before Mr. Trump took office.
It was a Texas shelter empty Since March 2024. The government has paid a minimum price of $ 18 million per month to keep it in preparation, compared to $ 55 million per month if the attachment is full.
By canceling the contract, the government provided the cost of maintaining the facilities until it ended later this year. But a small part of this money – about $ 27 million – will be calculated in the fiscal year 2026. This was about 1 percent of the savings that Mr. Musk claimed.
Nat Malikus, a older colleague at the American Conservative Institute for Institutions, said this approach – which is urgent as certain as it was – was common in the data published by Mr. Musk Group.
“It seems as if your son was getting out of the college, and you are telling your wife,” Stand, we have saved money at the College of Medicine! “Well, this is meaningless, but this is the same idea.” “How do you call it savings?”
In another example, Mr. Musk Group said it provided $ 285 million by canceling a contract with South Dakota, Project Solutions Inc. To perform safety inspections in federal -backed residential buildings.
But this assumes that the government will spend the money that is no longer spending.
Robin Miller, project solution manager, said that the highest number was calculated using the “roof value” – the maximum amount that the government can pay. In fact, she said that the government agreed to pay only $ 29 million, of which $ 1.8 million was spent, and there were another $ 3 million due to complete work.
Mrs. Miller said that her company supported Mr. Musk’s mission, but his group was wrong in this case.
She said: “If it is not used, this has not been truly provided.” In any case, she said, there will be many savings in the period that Mr. Musk focused on: The contract will end on October 3, 2025, just three days after the coming fiscal year.
Mr. Musk Group also claimed to cancel a contract that was not a contract at all.
It included a request for the proposal published by the Personnel Management Office, looking for offers to help the human resources work.
When these requests are announced, government agencies describe the work they want to do. Contractors make proposals, with both the plan and the price. The government can choose one seller, or several. Even then, he often negotiates with them to pay the price below their original offers.
The details about this particular request were rare: Mr. Musk Group has provided a number of order, 47qfea24k0008. But the New York Times was not able to find this number in databases from the previous government’s requests. The employee management office refused to issue the application, or say what you planned to spend on the contract, and the office will not say whenever he planned to choose a contractor.
Despite this uncertainty, Mr. Musk calculated the savings involved in the cancellation. (She later collected the claim in dollars until 318,310,328 dollars.)
“Garbage”, Stephen said to. Schoner, a professor who studies federal contract at George Washington University.
He said it is too early to know what the government will spend with certainty – especially in the year targeted by Mr. Musk. What if the offers of offers compete for the price is less? What if one of the losing exhibitors protested, then everything was canceled?
“You don’t know what will happen.” “It’s ridiculous.”
