“History does not restore itself, but it is rhymes.” Whether Mark Twain is ever, it fits and resonates loudly with President Trump’s closure between the Oval Office and the position room, which weighs if he should send bombers to another American sort to the Middle East.
First, the necessary warnings. Since the seizure of power, in 1979, the Iranian theocrats have been threatened by more than ninety million citizens and the wider region. Ayatollah was deprived of a prosperous civil society, as they directed resources instead to the Christian militarization and imagination. The system depends on the repression – Crackdone, prison, torture, and executions – to maintain control of the Khanaqin and anti -opposite population. Many of the educated palm tree in the country immigrated. Driving rows are largely employed, with satraps and mediocrities. Iran has proven to seek nuclear weapons along with the nuclear energy project that it is a vigor is a non-useful catastrophe-most of which are for the Iranians themselves. As Karim Sadjadbur, Iran’s expert in Carnegie for the gift for international peace, is noted that the nuclear program was practical and strategic “albatross”; It only provides about one percent of Iranian energy needs, but it costs up to five hundred billion dollars in construction, research, and international sanctions.
Meanwhile, Ayatollah Ali Khounai-the supreme leader since 1989 and now eighty-six years-will spoil the targets of his fateful military regime and delusions. In 2015, he pledged that Israel, which does not participate in borders with Iran, will disappear by 2040. The regime expected a force through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and has gone to the agent’s militias throughout the region: Hezbollah, in Lebanon; Hamas, in Gaza; The Houthis, in Yemen; And in Iraq, the Islamic resistance. Armed and advised by Tehran, all of these groups made deadly operations.
For decades, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the Iranian nuclear establishment unbearable, whether for Israel or the world. In many ways, Netanyahu is a dual politician. There is a little that he will not say or do to preserve his alliance and strength. But it is right in this: Iran’s nuclear armed Iran will threaten Israel (which has nuclear weapons for decades) and Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt, and others can also provoke such weapons.
No American president has ever contested the danger of Iran’s nuclear armed. However, when the Obama administration managed to formulate a nuclear deal, the joint comprehensive action plan condemned it as weak. Donald Trump agreed, if only to show contempt for Obama. In 2018, Trump moved away from JCPOA – an uncompromising step, because he had no alternative to his presentation. He left a dangerous vacuum.
In the wake of Hamas attacks on October 7, Israeli psychology of Israel changed in an incorrect way. The original promise of the Israeli state was an end, once and for all, dependency and the inability of the people of Exilic, who suffered from the anti -Semitic persecution for several centuries – a dark history that reached Nader in Nazi death camps. For the Israelis, Hamas’s attack has not been a bloody day in the country since its foundation, but also the nightmare returned to weakness. On October 7, the state failed: Intelligence reports were ignored or rejected the intentions of Hamas; The army was deployed to a large extent elsewhere. On that day, Hamas sought to make the maximum suffering of Israel; It also aims to raise all Iranian agents, and perhaps even Iran itself, to join the battle.
But what Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, hoped that the final battle of the liberation ended with defeat and misery. In its anger, Israel captured Hamas and wiped its leadership – including Sinwar – and killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians. The entire cities and towns – Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gabalia – or almost. Moshe Yalon, Netanyahu Minister of Defense, described the “ethnic cleansing” process and accused the government of abandoning the hostages taken by Hamas and “losing contact with Jewish ethics.”
While the Israeli government absorbed an international condemnation of its transgressions and crimes in Gaza, its forces fought in a relative accuracy in Lebanon, killing almost all of Hezbollah and thousands of fighters. It was not long after that, the Assad regime in Syria – which slaughtered hundreds of thousands of its people with the support of the Iranians.
This was the moment of weakness in Tehran, which Netanyahu was waiting for. It seems that Israeli intelligence has penetrated the Iranian regime and its security forces more comprehensive than Hezbollah. In the past two weeks, Israel has canceled the highest ranks of Iran’s military and intelligence leadership and its nuclear scientists. But it did not take long for Netanyahu’s speech and tactics to move – from focusing on attacks against military and nuclear sites to broader and more dangerous ambitions. Israel attacked the main television center in Iran and the leadership of the Greater Tehran police; These are symbols of the government, not military targets. “We are doing what we need to do.”.
But history insists on his own lessons. Early days of “overwhelming power” and logical effects are almost always followed by sectarian conflict, rebellion, terrorism and chaos. We were often enough here to realize that the imagination of the system change is rarely realized, if any. There is no people, as it turned out, we welcome “liberation” by foreign invaders. As a recent report in Wall Street magazine It is noticed, in the event of the overthrow or killing of my crude, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which preserves the massive economic and military impact, which can be in a situation that allows him to name a new ruler and “assume an unprecedented force.”
So what will Trump do? Israel has already struck the orthopedic customization facility in Natanz, the Izfahan Center for Nuclear Technology, the heavy water reactor in Arak, and other locations. However, most experts agree that the decisive goal is the Fordo enrichment center, which was included in the depth of a mountain. It is widely assumed that the only weapons capable of destroying Fordo are the penetration of the enormous munitions-the “hidden” bombs made by America, which weighs thirty thousand pounds each. Only American bombers B-2 are able to carry them. Netanyahu hinted that Israel may have its own ways to destroy Fordo, perhaps with a kind of ground operation, but it is clearly preferred that Trump is asking the pilots to do this task.
There is no American president – Bill Clinton, George E or George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, or Donald Trump – who dealt with Netanyahu, not, sooner or later, with a constant sense of resentment. Netanyahu exudes the natural confidence in its powers in manipulation. In 2001, during a meeting with Israeli victims of terrorism, he assured them that he can always bring the United States. He said to them: “I know what America is.” “America is something you can move very easily, and transfer it in the right direction.”
It is not easy to trust Donald Trump to make an ideal decision. For one reason, it suspects that almost every source of information is to save its intestine. It reveals uncertainty. (“No one knows what I will do.” It seems that he lacks the director of National Intelligence, Toulcy Gabbard, and its conclusion that Iran’s endeavor to a nuclear bomb was not as advanced as Netanyahu claims. He shot the National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, but instead of replacing him, he handed over additional duties to Foreign Minister Marco Rubio. Metternich Trump is Steve Whitch, a real estate developer in New York in a modest way; Defense Minister Higseth, who was previously a weekend host, at the end of the week, injured the president as an empty suit with Bombador. (According to Washington mailHigseth was marginalized.) Meanwhile, Trump must pay attention to the ideas provided by competitors in him Maga The universe: isolation of Steve Bannon and Tikkar Carlson in exchange for Mark Levin and Laura Loomer.
Trump has set a two -week deadline for roaming and negotiating. History provides cold comfort and little clarity. Philip Gordon, chief foreign policy consultant for President Obama and Vice President Harris, is once reflected in the gloomy results of recent US military interventions in the Middle East. Politico writing, in 2015, referred to:
Now, after a decade, there is another Middle Eastern crisis here, and it is in the hands of the American president and the supreme leader. In almost everything, including military issues, Trump is hardly a model of discrimination. He recently sent the naval infantry to deal with the “rebellion” of the protest against its immigration policies in the center of Los Angeles, even while throwing the actual rebellion in the Capitol, four years ago, as “a day of love.” Meanwhile, my cloud must now think about retreating as it hasn’t happened before. His predecessor, Ayatollah Rohla Khomeini, is once similar to the signing of a truce with Iraq after a decade of war to “drinking poison”.
The self-poisoning that can accompany the first days of the battle-euphoria from “shock and awe”, dreams of changing the pure system-stand again in the path of rational negotiation. To avoid a wider fire in Iran, Israel and beyond, the US president will have to reduce his worst motivation for “rapid victory” and negotiation. On his part, like his predecessor, he will have to raise the cup on his lips and take a sip. ♦
