The United States joined Israel in its war against the Islamic Republic of Iran on Saturday evening as president Donald Trump American bombers ordered the destruction of three main nuclear sites. 8 before eveningTrump went actually the social fact to provide news:
In a summary TV address in 10 eveningTrump announced that the operation was “amazing military success” and said that the three sites “were completely obliterated.”
In recent days, opinion polls have shown that the majority of the American people, including the majority of supporters of the president, have opposed to war with Iran. By requesting these strikes, Trump acted without the approval of Congress and contradicting his campaign to avoid the type of disasters it suffers from in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. I have recently written piece Reviewing many dangers and capabilities that can follow American bombing in Iran. After hearing the news, I immediately contacted one of the country’s most knowledgeable experts in Iran, Karim Sadjadbur. He is a researcher at Carnegie Endowment International Peace and worked as an analyst in the International Crisis Group in Tehran, from 2003 to 2005.
“I am shocked,” Sadjadpour told me, about ten minutes after Trump’s announcement. “I am sitting here, watching this on CNN and I am trying to see the reaction on Twitter in Persian.”
He continued, “This is unprecedented, as a bomb dropped thirty thousand pounds.” “Anyone who has noticed during the last two decades of history in the Middle East will think hard about the launch of this attack. You want to think about several steps in the future, and there is no evidence that the president has done so. He gave a tweet to him and his general comments the impression that this is the end of the war and its start, but I think that the Iranians are thinking differently. They have done a program on any hundreds of projects. The regime is proud of that and now it is destroyed.
The question now is how Iran will respond. If the verse of God [Ali Khamenei] “He responds with weakness and loses his face. If he responds strongly, he may lose his head,” Sadjadbur said.
“Many options for revenge are the strategic equivalent of suicide bombing,” continued. “They can cause tremendous damage to our embassies. They may like the Strait of Hormuz. They can continue missile laws against Israel. They can try to cause real damage to the global economy, although the system may not escape the reaction.”
In the past two weeks, Israeli intelligence and pilots Bomber have wiped many of the higher levels of the Iranian security establishment, along with the country’s leading nuclear scientists. However, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard weapon still exists, and according to many analyzes, they are likely to fill any electrical vacuum, at least in the short term. But the truth is that the truth is that the events of the coming days and months will be difficult to predict.
Will the Israelis or the Americans ever come up with severe convincing evidence about the Iranian nuclear threat and its timing? Not for the first time, Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that the threat was imminent I acted on itNevertheless, the public did not provide clear evidence that Iran was about to obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump was not. Israel and the United States have now restored Iran’s nuclear program as it has not happened before. However, if this system survives, it may make a secret effort in the future to produce or obtain an atomic weapon as a deterrent against the repeated strikes that have just occurred.
“Will we look back and say that this prevents an Iranian or secure bomb?” Sadjadpour said. Likewise, did we rush to the regime’s disappearance, or did we have it?
Horman is eighty-six, and he has been in power since 1989. “He is one of the longest dictators in the world-don’t get it by being a gambler,” said Sadjadpour. “He has instincts for survival but also the instincts of challenge. At the moment, his instincts are alive and his challenge instincts in tension. Imagine: you are eighty -six with a material war, and perhaps, the cognitive limits that come with that. It is difficult to see how the result can be positive for him.
“But, as we often learned in history, military success is not always translated into political success. In my opinion-and may see history differently-to the point that we are now doing as a nation that is not a reflection of national deliberations or national interest. It is a motive for the man. The great sense of urgency to reach a decision in Iran.
In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia last month, Trump made an extraordinary speech that was strongly criticizing military interventions and building adventures in the Middle East. “In the end, the builders of the alleged nation destroyed a much more country than what he built,” Trump said. “The interventions were interfering in the complex societies that they had not even understood.”
