The burning of Ukraine’s forests at unprecedented prices has helped to push the total greenhouse emissions from the war since the full invasion of Russia to about 230 meters.
the Ticket,, Which was published on the third anniversary of the invasion, found that the fighting and its consequences led to 55 million tons of emissions in the past 12 months.
Dry and extraordinary hot summer last year, it is believed that it was aggravated by the collapse of the climate, which led to a noticeable jump in landscape fires, while burning 92,100 hectares in 2024 more than twice the annual average of 38,300 was destroyed. The researchers said.
In total, this environmental destruction led to emissions of about 49 million tons of Co2Equival (MTCO2E) over the three years, and 16.9 mtco2E last year.
“What emerges in the third year is that we have seen landscape fires, but especially forest fires, they are rising,” said Linard de Kleler, the main researcher in the non -profit initiative about war accounting.
“It is a double compared to the average previous two years, and of course much higher than it was in the situation without war. We are talking about 20 to 25 times of fires more than … [the] The peaceful average of the previous ten years. This is in particular … related to very dry conditions, especially in eastern Ukraine, where the war zone is located, along with heat waves. “
In these circumstances, with the firefighting fires by soldiers and igniting drones and other ammunition, as well as there is no opportunity to spread firefighters, small fires “escalate to larger and larger events, and mainly anger on” not subject to censorship. “
This is also concerned because these forests are carbon basins. They store carbon everywhere, all over the world, and if they are … they rise to fire, [for] The forest to grow again and restore it Co2 In the soil again, to trees, it takes 40-60 years, depending on the tree. “
De Klerk, who worked in analyzing climate emissions for two and a half decades, began an investigation into the climate impact of the war in Ukraine shortly after the invasion on February 24, 2022.
To obtain the latest report, he and his colleagues merged emissions from fires with emissions from war, rebuilding buildings, damage to energy infrastructure, refugee movement, displacement of civil aviation to estimate greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 229.7 million tons of CO2 Since the war began.
The same war contributed – taking emissions from tanks, warplanes, fortification construction, ammunition explosion, etc. – more in climate effect, representing 82.1 mtco2e, 36 % of the total, followed by reconstruction, which researchers estimate 62.2 mtco2e, 27 %. From the total.
“In the first 12 months, the reconstruction led to most emissions due to the fact that most of the damage to the civil infrastructure (buildings, hospital, roads, etc.) occurred in the first weeks/months of the war. De Kerlerk said:” The rate is The damage (and then emissions) slowed in the second and third years due to the fixed front lines. “
“War is almost sin over the years because the use of fossil fuels is the main contributor to war emissions and somewhat fixed. Another contributor varies, which is the use of ammunition, over months but has a much less effect on the total war emissions.
“Energy infrastructure emissions have been greatly affected by one time Nord Stream event In September 2022. The damage to the local infrastructure was not translated in the second and third period of 12 months into a significant growth of the total.
De Kallal said that civil aviation emissions, which included additional emissions as a result of avoiding the war zone, were mostly written over time, and that emissions from refugee movements occurred mainly in the first year of conflict.
He and his collaborators collected the results they reached from a group of sources, including the official Ukrainian government data on the destruction of civil infrastructure, Flightradar records of civil aircraft movements, and satellite data over wild fires through conflict areas.
He said that the military emissions data were the most interesting, “because the armies are not ready to exchange information.” For those numbers, DE Klerk and his team used the agent values for the amount of fossil fuels used by the medium soldier and the data that were able to detect fuel shipments from fuel from Russia To the front lines.
De Klelock said he has already begun to expand his investigations beyond the Ukraine war. He said: “These conflicts and these wars – they are not only Ukraine but also Israel, and what we see is happening between the United States and China – means that investing in the army is high, and they are responsible for about 5.5 % of the world’s emissions – the army themselves and the military industry.
But if we go from 2 % to 5 % spending [on the military] Then this emissions will be doubled at least … at some point that 5.5 % will become 10 %, will become 20 %. Just imagine what F-35 use in kerosene. “
