Hard times: why Rachel Reeves must be bold and ditch her Dickensian rulebook | Will Hutton

R.The following are two uncomfortable if the basic facts about Britain’s economic stagnation and budget. The first: The continuous repetition of the Labor Party about its terrible legacy is its leadership Critics Army Almost left and right to reject the depth of our economic ordeal as a political start. However, a series of conservative and intellectual intellectual conservative governments left catastrophic chaos.

The second: Although there must be a specific response, it should be more than a decline to the Gradgrind of “Benny-Wise-WIISE-Lover Brain”. The labor government must have a reliable political vision and some imaginary and progressive methods to meet the desperate need for more resources to defense, as well as reforming excessive public services; From enhancing growth and increasing additional revenues that are not angering the election. Not only is the Labor Party and voters who expect it – as well Financial marketsWhich understands that economic and political credibility is intertwined.

Go to the first truth – that Britain lives on a tight rope. Our international accounts have been constantly red since 1984, which were paid in exchange for selling lands, companies and property to foreigners, so we are now seriously owned by the rest of the world than we owe to us. At home, the last government budget surplus was in 2000. Annual interest payments exceeded 100 billion pounds and represent approximately 4 % of GDP. Productivity is weak and its growth. We have Ails in the stock market, with very few high -tech growth companies. Britain is not the United States or Germany, which can now bear financial risks: we are a strange economy, and certainly with some basic strengths in our innovation and scientific base, but mainly at risk.

The collapse of the possibility of an attack on the financial market, who runs the British government will have to predict that daily public spending is more than just a daily tax receipt during a expected future for a period of five years. This is not some of the financial rule the performance imposed by the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is good for herself to prove her iron credentials; It is an indispensable guarantor, minimum credit and sovereign self -independence.

Thus, the expected outlines of the spring statement on Wednesday. The budget responsibility office will confirm, given Donald Trump’s attack on the global trading system The accuracy of a tight rope By significantly reducing its economic growth predictions. By shaving the growth of departments budgets to show a real positive growth in the name only, enhancing with the luxury green paper last week, which flourishes frankly, health -related health growth Social welfare paymentsThe advisor will reach the necessary goal for the daily receipts that exceed spending. With luck and fair winds, it should avoid the repetition of the Liz Tros disaster, which would destroy the government.

But this is not enough. Thus to the second truth. One of the worst mistakes in politics is to imagine that the more you deny what everyone can see, it enhances your credibility. mistake. Everyone can see that British defensive spending should rise to 3 % of GDP or more in the near future. Everyone can also see that there is no possibility that spending in departments in public services that have been exposed to resources and the social welfare system is already driven by wide poverty, more throat to the funding that is necessary.

On the defense, there are three options: criticism of the defense from the total spending of current spending as a separate line element; Explain that political geography has changed the world, and argues to increase taxes not only on property wealth but high levels of income; Or apply for the membership of the proposed European Union’s defense loan scheme. The markets will not be deceived. The best option is to combine making the common cause with the European Union-even if there is horse circulation on its mutual requests on student visas and/or access to fishing-with higher taxes at one time. If it is fair and up, the voters will accept them.

Most revenues can be customized for defense, but some revenues must be found to go to another round of generalized austerity. On an equal footing, there should be another effort in the field of luxury, and you should think better, to contain its growth growth. The best way is to have faith in investing in people. Job opportunities must be created out of every five people who do not work, especially for children between the ages of 16 to 24 years, not in education, employment or training, and their financing (and people are rewarded to change their behavior). A successful new Labor Party Future Jobs Fund Show the road: As a flexible principle, up to a third of the savings must be presented by removing a person from luxury and to work to the employer as support for work; The third can reward those who previously working from working as a reward for wages every year they work; While only the last third should go to the cabinet. Experience with young people granting an annual grant of a value of 20,000 pounds to find work and training; The pilots in Wales have achieved amazing success. Create a civil conservative corporation similar to the United States. Use all possible space to enhance public spending on capital. The goal will be a real moral – mobilization to give those who suffer from work or with disability and depression an opportunity to live in life.

On an equal footing, there is no growth with the absence of growth companies, the stock market on its back and the low investment levels chronic. The last destroyed Goldman SACHS briefing, “a very British problem – ownership of low stocks and potential solutions”, argues that British pension funds are investing less in their stock market than any other pension funds system in the world. The result is depression stock prices, defense companies and risk capital in all fields.

This loop of torment that is self -enhanced must be broken. Britain needs much larger pension boxes, which can support our capabilities to innovate very buried. The government has begun in this process, but surprisingly, it has abandoned the fastest and most effective option – which enhances the public -owned pension protection fund so that it can achieve more smaller pension boxes under its wing. But the real transformative change, which imposes investment, is the request for tax concessions on all forms of investment, must be conditional on investment in Britain.

The sure back and the increasing confidence that Starmer has shown in dealing with Trump, Ukraine and the European Union is now at home. Allow the cabinet mentality to control policy policies, and the economy will not only start, but will break its government.

Some elements are in place. It should be collected, built and fired – urgently.