Hold your breath and look to Germany: its election could decide the fate of Europe – and the UK | Martin Kettle
EVin at less tense times, Britain always concludes a lot of attention to the United States and very few for Germany. In the circumstances of the rocks, this imbalance may be in it. After all, Donald TrumpIt is now clear, this really means. It is more interested in looting and profit than Gaza, Ukraine and Greenland more than adhering to a fair peace or a good thing.
However, lack of interest towards Germany needs to be terminated. British politicians, like German politicians, are returning their opinions in the world amid a political storm. But Germany, although it is no longer a great power, is a great nation. In fact, it may be more than ever now the main European nation, and it seems that the general neglected in the Trump administration of the entire Atlantic Alliance leaves Europe to its own devices.
the German general electionsNext Sunday, it is an event with consequences. In the first place, of course, these consequences in Germany itself, with its extended economic stagnation, their anxiety over migration and borders, and its traditional fears about borrowing, and its tension over military obligations, and its sudden concern that the United States is ready for the United States to allow Russia to threaten lands on the eastern borders .
Nevertheless, the inherent importance in Germany means that the elections will also help determine whether Europe – not only the European Union – is able to deal with Trump’s second term. Will Europe be able to provide defense and security to protect not only? UkraineSufficiently task, but the republics of the Baltic, Poland and the other previous Satial Satial states as well? Can it reform its faltering economic model? This is an echo that Britain cannot avoid, even if it wants it.
It goes without saying that the German elections received only a small part of the attention that the political class in this country abandons American elections. For example, a lot of this limited amount of attention is absorbed through the installation-which is somewhat shared by the German media-with the anti-immigrant Popular Party (AFD). As a result, the potential victor on Sunday, the right-wing CDU-SSU Alliance in the center under the next possible advisor, Fredchich Mirz, was barely examined at all.
This competition occurs against the background of economic failure, not success. The German economy decreased in 2023 and again in 2024. It is likely to remain in the recession again this year. He adds to the longest period of economic recession since Hitler’s fall in 1945. Anyone who appears as a consultant after Sunday will face very similar options for those who face Kiir Starmer and Rashil Reeves.
It is not difficult to understand the reasons for Germany’s decline. Germany’s dependence on Russian energy means that prices have risen after the invasion of Ukraine. The coalition government consisting of three parties of Olaf Schools has declined in power since 2021, to this accreditation-renewable energy sources now produce 60 % of German energy-but it has not been eliminated. German car exports have become more expensive, while China has risen in producing electric cars cheaper. The war of tariffs with the United States looms on the horizon.
All this has provided the shock of the regime to a country that is still strongly conditional by its passion for post -war stability. “We have used our old success, and we did not invest in new things,” said commentator Theo Cole UK in the changing Europe Podcast this week. “We have lived for a long time in a type of” Gore-Tex “… We wanted it nice and comfortable inside and all unpleasant things should be outside.”
the AFDAmid the perception that irregular immigration outside the scope of control is the most obvious sign that the ancient political age has ended. It was accelerated by violent killings where immigrants are suspected during the campaign in Magdburg, Achusenburg and, Last week, Munich. Politico poll poll polls put AFD by 21 %, doubles what he obtained in the previous federal elections in 2021, and continues second to CDU-CSU, 29 %, but before Sches SPD by 16 % and Greens at 13 %.
Nevertheless, the distinctive symbol, the Merz’s CDU-CSU’s victory on February 23 will be really important. It will be important, although 29 % will be a decrease from 42 % of the parties he took during the era of Angela Merkel in 2013. In the heart of Europe, it will appear that the line can be against populism from the right. This is not a traveling lesson, especially after the French Association’s elections.
It will also be a confidence vote, albeit relatively weak, for one of the few major parties in the remaining Europe in the center. Parties with the forces that were once like the French Gallovis can only look with frustration and envy-nothing about the governors of Kimi Padnosh. Not the least, it will also be a reprimand for those like Elon Musk and JD Vance who actively promoted AFD from the outside.
However, it will ask two big questions. The first and more urgent, the coalition that Mirz will make by building and the content of his program will be. Everything here depends on which parties are eligible for the Bundestag and the number of seats that each win. Mirz has repeatedly excluded the judgment with AFD, so his main partner in the coalition could be the decrease in the decrease or less likely to be the Mirz’s commitment to growth, vegetables.
If the ballot boxes are correct, it is likely that any of Mirz shows a weak alliance. This would give him a little space to push reforms of the type that he calls – familiar topics for readers in the United Kingdom, such as benefits discounts, ending the red tape of business and raising defensive spending. It is, however, is open to relief constitutionally dedicated “debt brakes”, which prohibits the general investment that is needed. It is likely that it takes until Easter before we know the full coalition image.
The other question, closely related, will be about Germany’s borders. Mirz sparked huge protests when AFD supported his bill, allowing Germany to transfer asylum seekers and other migrants on the border. This prompted a Nader reprimand from MerkelThat Mirz has abandoned a historical resonance wall against extremist right -wing support. However, the border controls are important for any state that seeks to ensure security, including social welfare, for its citizens, and Germany is not the only country in which voters demand more effectively.
Sunday elections are a critical European moment, and even if Trump is not present. The main question is not, at least at this stage, about the rise of the extreme right. It is constantly related to the feasibility of the center’s right, or the ability to adapt to what Merkel, early in her career as a party leader, who was called “New Social Capitalism”. The current recession set this vision for a ruthless test. Mirz will be judged by the result, if the power wins. It is a moment of Germany’s concern – but also for us.
