California lawmakers said several times that the expansion of the tax credit of the film and television is a “job bill”.
But how many jobs will you create? Will it be enough to reversed the sharp contraction in recent years? Few tried to answer these questions.
According to the California Film Committee, which oversees the program, walking long to $ 750 million will lead to an increase of 40-50 % in direct workers-or about 4,400 to 5500 jobs.
This is only a small part of the job loss in California in the past two years, according to federal and industrial data.
“It will definitely restore jobs,” said Alex Aguilar, the director of local workers ’business, 724, who defended the program. “I don’t know it will be as it was before.”
Hollywood unions estimate that 17,000 jobs have evaporated since 2022, based on data from the pensions of animation and health. This does not count on workers who do not qualify for this plan.
According to the Labor Statistics Office, California lost about 40,000 functions in the production of images and video in 2024 compared to the atom in 2022, or about 20,000 compared to prenatal levels. Some recreational unions indicate that about 40 % -50 % of its members are unemployed.
“We know that we are facing levels in the era of depression from job losses,” said Rick Chavez Zour, a member of the Los Angeles Association Council, who leads the efforts to expand tax credit. “This is not the occurrence of satire. But it will stop the sharp slide in the jobs, and restore some jobs.”
Even in its decimal state, Hollywood is huge, and California only supports part of it. The current program of $ 330 million supports 11,000 staff jobs per year, according to the committee. This is about one of all nine production functions in the state. Double the program and thus leave most of the industry not affected.
According to the committee, the expansion will not double the number of jobs supported by the program. In part, this is because the law will also increase the basic credit of production from 20 % to 35 %. So a major project such as “Top Gun: MAVERIKK” or “Reebl Moon” will receive $ 35 million instead of $ 20 million – without creating any other jobs.
Such an analysis can be an art as it is a science, especially when it comes to the “effect of ripples” jobs across the wider economy.
When this double is taken into account, the expansion will lead to 14,886 additional jobs, according to Ticket May 27 was released by the Milkin Institute.
But this claim is in a dispute. In February, the state’s legislative analyst office Find “There is no convincing evidence indicating that film tax credits have a positive impact on the size of the state’s economy in general.” The office argued that the incentives of films are simply gathering for another activity.
Christopher Thornberg, the founding partner of Beacon Economics, says it is also difficult to conclude, with certainty, that the jobs supported by jobs directly by the program were not present without it.
“We have to talk about jobs” but to “. This is: “But for this support, this task will not be present. “Saying” this support is linked to this job, “it does not tell us anything curse.”
Thornberg believes that the California Film Committee is likely to exaggerate its functional impact. But Kevin Claudine, who composed the Milkin report, believes the committee is very conservative.
“They are studying greatly,” he says.
Clauden and Thornberg also differ from the root causes of Hollywood contraction. Claudine’s report argues that the primary factor is the costs of shift in Los Angeles, including the cost of living, the cost of health insurance, and permits fees.
Thorneberg argues that technology has changed the way people consume entertainment, with eyebrows turning into YouTube and away from traditional platforms, which led to a global decline.
“I think the industry has a problem,” he says. “It is not that California is very expensive.”
Regardless of the recession, California is now in a warfare war that remains. New York and Georgia pay about $ 60,000 per job, according to audit reports. California pays about $ 30,000, which will rise to 45,000 dollars and $ 48,000 after expansion.
Since California’s tax credits are limited, many products are not interested in serving. Zbur has argued that increasing payment can attract more large budget films-which employ many people-which will go abroad otherwise.
“I would like it a greater balance,” he said. “But we have to do what we can do with the resources that can be achieved politically at the present time.”
The Entertainment Union Alliance argues that the draft law will also help retain the current workforce, which will continue to wear. The coalition estimates that the expansion will lead to 400,000 to 500,000 additional working days. by Diverse Account-Alliance will not go there-about 10-15 % of the total job loss in the past two years.
“Although more resources will lead to more jobs, we are aware of the challenges of the moment and the competing priorities,” said Rebecca Ryan, President of the Alliance and senior officials of the American Managers Syndicate. “But the work is necessary now and we cannot let the ideal is the enemy of goodness.”
Greg Bartlet, director of unit production, helped to form Can United last year to urge the country to increase the program to one billion dollars.
“Even this may not be sufficient to collapse at this late stage,” he said, although it is estimated to move to $ 750 million. “It is a little, it has been late, and it should be more. But anything helps.”
