A commercial war with China during President Trump’s first term that severely struck American farmers. This time, it can be worse.
On Tuesday, the Chinese Finance Ministry said it would add a tariff of up to 15 percent to a wide range of agricultural imports from the United States, including chicken, wheat, corn and cotton. Beijing’s revenge for the escalation of American definitions on Chinese products also includes 10 percent of customs tariffs on fine corn imports, soybeans, pork, beef, water products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products.
Without specifying products, Canada said on Tuesday that it would impose a 25 percent revenge tariff on American goods worth $ 20.5 billion, and Mexico promised to clarify its response on Sunday. President Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on products from both countries on Tuesday.
Lin Kennedy, a professor of agricultural economics at Louisiana State University, said the farmer is a goal because agricultural products are a large part of American exports. Policy is likely to be a factor.
Mr. Kennedy said: “The rural areas tend to be more political conservative, and so if you look at the location of the Trump base, or where the base of the republic is, then this tends to be some of those countries and agricultural areas.”
As they did during the first Trump administration, revenue definitions may mean that American exports and prices for crops are declining – as importers from China, Canada, Mexico are looking forward to Brazil or other large agricultural producers to obtain alternatives.
China represents 14 percent – approximately 24.7 billion dollars – from all agricultural commodities that were exported from the United States in 2024, according to it. Data From the Ministry of Agriculture. Mexico and Canada imported more: about $ 30.3 billion of goods for Mexico and $ 28.4 billion in Canada.
Mark Legane, a cattle and crop farmer in Putnam Province, Indiana, said Mexico is the highest export market for Bentic and the largest China of soybeans, which he sells to Cargill and Artcher Daniels Midland in his area.
When China began buying more soybeans from Brazil during the first term of Mr. Trump, “Mr. Legane’s income decreased.” Pork exports also fell to China. This time, he is anxious again of the repercussions – especially since Mexico is preparing for revenge as well.
“We are fighting an arduous battle against the definitions, to obtain both soybeans and pork in those markets,” said Mr. Lejan. “In agriculture, we deal with uncertainty all the time, whether it is the weather or the health of our animals. But this adds another level of uncertainty that we are trying to deal with as best we can.”
The pressure on the industry was fast to criticize the definitions. Shannon Douglas, head of the farm office in California, said that the comprehensive definitions of China, Mexico and Canada are risked “at the call of revenge that may harm the farmers who aim to protect it.” Greg Dod, CEO of the National Producers for Girls, said in a statement on Monday, before the new definitions, that the group “was inconsistent with the commercial barriers that arise as the two countries invented new policies that threaten to disrupt our dairy sales.”
Although the Canadian government did not specify products that will be subject to its revenge definitions, the plan that was clarified last month has set hundreds of products that can be targeted, including food products such as orange juice and peanut butter. Doug Ford, Prime Minister Ontario said on Tuesday that he had ordered the removal of all alcohol from the boycott controlled by the province.
Agricultural producers of all sizes, part -time farmers and small family farms to large groups, can take great success with low prices and some costs have risen. Soybeans formed about half of US agricultural exports to China last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, but US soybeans to China are competing with Brazil companies. The US Fallen Futures fell about 1 percent on Tuesday. Futures on American corn and wheat also fell.
“The farmers have already planted their crops, and they have already this year on the ground and they expected a certain price for their product,” said Mr. Kennedy. “There is this uncertainty about what the price will be.”
Many rural societies are already struggling with the Trump administration Sudden freezing of federal financing On a set of programs and grants. Jill McClaski, a professor of agricultural economy at Washington State University, said that farmers are forced to borrow money for their machines and face the draft installation laws. If they could not get a lot of money for their crops because the revenge definitions make their goods less competitive, “they will suffer,” she said.
The effects of definitions can be uneven and unpredictable.
Persons can benefit from organic products, because they sell to a large extent to the local market and use local inputs. But Kate Manenah, Executive Director of the organic farmers Association, said that some members of her organization were reporting the high costs of repairing machinery because the parts come from Canada.
“He will strike in unexpected ways that we cannot estimate yet,” said Ms. Monnenhaal.
Other costs can also rise. About 85 percent of the potash, a major component in fertilizers, is imported from Canada, according to the US Farm Office.
“The additional definitions, in addition to the expected reprisals, will negatively affect rural America,” the president of the Federation, President of the Federation, said in a statement on Tuesday. “Add more costs and reduce markets to American agricultural goods may create an economic burden that some farmers may not be able to bear.”
In the profit call last month, Ken CEST, CEO of Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer company and the world’s largest potash producer in the world, said that American farmers would carry the cost of definitions. “The American farmer will feel these effects after the spring cultivation season,” he said.
This is not the first time that farmers and food producers have found themselves in the Cross of Commercial Wars. During the first term of Mr. Trump at the White House, China responded to the definitions of its administration on Chinese goods with a retaliatory tariff ranging from 5 to 25 percent on many American agricultural products. These definitions reduced US agricultural exports by about 26 billion dollars, according to L. Research report By the Ministry of Agriculture.
At that time, US soybean exports fell to its lowest level in years. In 2018, soybean exports to China, the largest market, fell by 75 percent. A study issued by the American Soy Corporation last year and the National Association of Corn Performers found that a new trade war will immediately fall exports and soybeans with hundreds of millions of tons – a loss in the market share that would be difficult for American farmers to restore.
During his first term, Mr. Trump responded to China’s targeting of American agriculture by providing benefits to farmers. Whether his administration will do the same time – and whether these benefits will be distributed equally to large farms and young producers – still an open question.
“Farmers want to earn their money from the market,” said Betty Residence, an economist at the US farm office. “They do not want to rely on these government subsidies. But at the same time, if we change their access to the markets, they must stay at work as well.”
Kevin Driber The reports contributed.
