On the ninth of May, Vladimir Putin will oversee a display in the Red Square in Moscow, where he celebrated the victory of the Soviet Union in World War II, an annual display of Bravado military, since Russia’s invasion of Okkra widely, in 2022, was taken on the most clear political tones. The country’s victory over Nazi is presented as evidence of its righteousness in the current war – and its role as a global force. Last year, as an Intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads across the field, Putin linked the “radioactive memory” to those who gave up their lives in World War II with “our brothers who fell in the struggle against the new Nazis and in the recipient struggle for Russia”, the Russian soldiers were killed in the current load in the equation.
This year, the celebrations in Moscow serve another purpose: a way to Putin to show that it is not isolated by political Geysic Xi Jinping And Brazil Louise Insio Lula da Silva He is expected to attend. In recent weeks, Donald Trump He called for a thirty days of ceasefire as a step towards ending the war in Ukraine, a proposal narrated by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr ZelenskyPutin faced a three -day ceasefire during the ninth celebrations of May, a way to protect the Russian capital from Ukrainian drones and give Trump enough so that he does not lose attention or worse, Putin blames his efforts in the peace industry.
“Putin is trying to walk a high line,” said Thomas Graham, a Fellow Foreign Relations Fellow, who worked as a White House advisor in Russia during the George W. Bush administration. “He does not want to make any concessions on Ukraine, but he also wants to keep the United States to pass.” Trump’s intention has led to a quick end to the war in Ukraine to a dynamic in which Putin and Zelinski compete to make each other the subject of Trump. “If Trump’s attempts to mediate fail, then what is important is he who will find a condemnation: Moscow’s stubbornness or Kiev’s reluctance to agree to his conditions?” A source in the foreign political Moscow told me. “Both sides play a play for one audience.”
As a result, both leaders were forced to make adjustments. Putin, for example, began insisting that the United States is pressuring Zelinski to step aspire as Ukrainian president, that Russia will deal with him only or, as Putin suggested in March, a “non -led” transitional management. For a moment, Trump seemed to accept the idea, as Zelinski described it as a “dictator” and described it, not Putin, as a party I have in the negotiations.
But holding the elections in Ukraine will be a complex and introduction process; Trump wants a faster deal. Ultimately, Putin’s focus on removing Zelinski led to a rare reprimand from Trump, who said, in late March, was “very angry” and “angry” through Putin’s request. Since then, Putin’s prior condition has been steadily mixed with a confession that, at the present time, Zelinski does not go anywhere, and Russia cannot use this fact as a reason not to communicate with Trump on the issue of ending the war. Recently, Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has been called “legal issues related to legitimacy” for the presidency of Zelinski, a “secondary” concern. A political source in Moscow told me: “The Kremlin has admitted to my job that he is ready to deal with the current political system in Kiev.”
However, Putin and others, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, explained that any agreement should address the so -called “root causes” of the war: a list of grievances that extend from NATOEast in the 1990s expanded to the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine. in Interview with CBS News Last month, Lavrov talked about “the direct military threats of Russia only on our borders”, and at a moment of dark paradox, “human rights” of Ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine – for the historical demand of Russia for Ukraine itself.
From the start, Putin saw the invasion as a way to force a larger conversation with the West on the terms of Russia, where security engineering will be rebuilt in the entire Europe. “From Russia’s point of view, there is no solution to the war that does not have a broader understanding of how European security in the future,” Graham, who traveled to Moscow in February, told me to hold unofficial talks with Russian officials and experts. Putin did not give up this goal; If there is anything, the behavior of compatibility with Trump towards Russia’s allegations – “I think what caused the start of the war when they started talking about joining NATOTrump said about Ukraine during A recent interview with time– Make this possibility seem more possible than ever. “President Trump may be the only leader on earth who realized the need to address the root causes of this situation,” Lavrov told CBS.
Talking about these radical reasons is a way to expand the opening of relations between the United States and Russian, with the ultimate goal as a kind of Yalta 2.0, Putin’s ambition for many years, as Washington and Moscow divide in a discreet way the world, and overpowering issues of global importance and areas of influence on each other. “The Russian side has tried to diversify the number of issues on the agenda:” Let’s talk about diplomatic relations, cooperation in the Arctic or in space, Iran’s path, “said Moscow’s foreign political source.
Sometimes, Trump looked interested. He suggested that Russia be restored as a member of G-8; His phone calls with Putin from Ukraine deviated to large -scale topics such as global energy markets, the role of the dollar, and artificial intelligence. His envoy, Steve Whitchov, developed a clear emotion of Putin, describing him as “generous”, “smart”, and “not a bad man.” During an interview with Taker Karlson, in March, he talked about “so -called five regions” in Ukraine, which was included in Russia as part of the sovereignty of Moscow. “There were referendums where the vast majority of people indicated that they wanted to be under Russian rule,“ He said.
This creates Putin incentive to keep momentum. “If the United States leaves, all of these efforts are to attract America to a larger conversation, as two great powers are resolved to the problems of the world,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, an older colleague at the Carnegie Eurasia Carnegie Center. For Putin, Stanovaya continued, “Many of what he wants to achieve is now linked to Ukraine negotiations, which means that he was forced to rethink his position – not about the goals of his greatest war, but how he follows it here and now.”
In the opposite case, if a deal has not been reached and Russia is not blaming, the United States may completely abandon Ukraine. This scenario will be more useful for Putin, which puts a little merit in Ukraine’s defense or Europe’s ability to fill the gaps. Stanovaya said: “He believes that the Americans simply need to go out, and then it is only a matter of time before Ukraine threw in the towel,” Stanovaya said. The war will continue to extract a cost on Russia’s resources – including the dead soldiers, lost equipment, and unusual budget expenditures – but “Putin is sure that history is next to him, so he cannot imagine any result other than Ukraine’s determination to solution sooner or later, and Russia gets what it wants, or deserves.”
Regardless of the scenario that passes, Putin has every incentive to withdraw the process. According to Western estimates, Russia uses large cash rewards to employ up to thirty or forty thousand new soldiers per month. Russian military expenditures are increasing faster than those in all European countries combined. Russia intensifies the production of long -range drones, for example, while missile stocks in Ukraine for air defense systems are low. The foreign political source said: “There is a feeling in Moscow at that time to our side, that our negotiating position will only be strengthened during the coming weeks and months.”
