Is climate change supercharging Tropical Cyclone Alfred as it powers towards Australia? | Tropical Cyclone Alfred
The tropical hurricane Alfred in southeast of Queensland will collide at about one o’clock on Friday, which brings the threat of destroyed winds, severe floods and storms to millions of people around Brisbane, Gold Coast and northern New South Wales.
After last year, it was recorded as the best record all over the world, and the most important oceans in Australia, what role can the climate crisis in the tropical hurricane Alfred and its effects?
What does climate change to hurricanes do?
Like all weather systems on this planet, tropical hurricanes are formed in a world that is quickly heated, mostly due to burning fossil fuels.
The planet – the world’s oceans – maintains more sunfill due to the additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
But tropical hurricanes are complex. They need the ocean temperatures at least 26.5 ° C and the correct preparation of weather conditions to form. In particular, they need low wind cutting – any very little change in the wind, regardless of its height.
Studies have found it Global heating expands the tropical belt – The region where hurricanes can be formed – and other scientists have found it on average, The point where hurricanes achieve the most intense of them He was turning towards the columns.
Dr. Savin Chand is an expert in tropical hurricanes and climate change in the Australian region. “Climate change does not cause tropical hurricanes because it is for thousands of years, but the environment in which it is formed has become more hostile [to their formation]A Associate Professor at Al -Ittihad University said.
“But when they are formed, we know that the sea surface temperatures whose energy is much warmer than it was.”
Chand led the research that has argued The number of tropical hurricanes decreased by 13 % In the twentieth century. This was in line with the expectations of climate scientists that global heating can actually reduce the total number of hurricanes that form – but, from these, there will be a transformation into higher density systems.
“These sea surface temperatures and warming in the air provide fuel for systems for that, when they form, they have more energy to feed on them and this tends to make them more intense than before.”
How can climate change affect the Alfred hurricane?
The Alfred hurricane in the coral sea was formed at the end of February when sea surface temperatures were almost hotter than usual.
The same low pressure and increased air known as the seasonal wind basin that already generated Alfred Hurricane produced two other hurricanes, Ray and SeroWhich moved east, while Alfred took a road southeast and outside the coast of Queensland.
This year was the warmer summer in the sea choir.
Meteorological Office data shows that the ocean temperatures off the Brisbane and to the south were between 0.5C and 1c more than usual in recent days.
On Tuesday, the tropical hurricane Alfred was far away south to communicate with the common weather system in the lower latitude-a high-pressure area-grabbed the tropical hurricane Alfred and pushed it west towards the southeastern coast of Queensland.
On Wednesday, Hurricane Alfred was moving across this area when he approached the coast, as it was expected to cross on Friday morning as a second category system.
What does climate change do for the effects of hurricanes?
There are three main effects that scientists and authorities are concerned about the transfer of the tropical hurricane Alfred to the Queensland coast: damage from severe winds, floods of severe rain, and damage to the coast from the storm of corridors and destroyed waves.
The warmer atmosphere can carry more water that can fall like rain, and in general, the atmosphere can carry 7 % moisture per 1c of warming. But the severity of rain can be greater than that because, with the shape of rain drops, it also launches energy in a system.
Dr. Andrew Dodi, Associate Professor and Expert in Equatorial Hurricanes at the University of Melbourne, and their colleagues He advised this in AustraliaThe infrastructure or construction planning should consider that each degree of warming can increase the rain by up to 15 %.
Dowdy refers to many characteristics of climate change that can make the effects of a hurricane of Alfred worse. “Climate change has mocked the oceans until the blossom [are] He said that loaded for a greater chance of hot water around Australia, as we saw this summer.
“Hot Ocean temperatures can help charging super -tropical hurricanes with the most extreme rainfall and flood risk.”
When the ocean heats climate change, it expands, and pushes sea levels. The melting of the ice associated with the Earth, such as ice sheets and ice rivers, raises sea levels.
Sea surface levels have already increased by 20 cm due to climate change, “which can make damage worse when storms like hurricane Alfred.”
“This includes more severe risk of floods in the tidal and carrots such as Gold Coast and the Brisbane River, as well as the most intense coastal erosion.”
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