‘It’s something that happens’: are we doing enough to save Earth from a devastating asteroid strike? | Asteroids

IT is a Hollywood lover’s scenario: there is a huge asteroid, several miles away, in a collision with the Earth. Scientists examine and re -examine them, but there is no mistake – civilization faces a catastrophic end unless it is possible to discredit space.

It may seem like science fiction, but it is a threat taken seriously by scientists.

Earlier this year, the researchers estimated that the Employer YR4 2024 has a chance of 3.1 % to hit the Earth in 2032, before reviewing this possibility 0.0017 %. This week, new data suggested that it was More like to hit the moonWith a possibility of 4.3 %.

If this happens, the asteroid from 53 to 67 meters (174 feet to 220 feet) will previously do the “city killer” will release hundreds of tons of debris towards our planet, which poses a danger to satellites, spacecraft and space pioneers.

Before that, in April 2029, 99942 APOPHIS – an asteroid is larger than the Eiffel Tower – will be visible to the naked eye when it passes 32,000 km from the ground. This close meeting, which draws attention to the United Nations, prompted the appointment of 2029 as the international year of planetary defense.

When it comes to the shocking asteroid strikes, there is a precedent, of course. Most scientists believe that such an event was quick to disappear of dinosaurs other than AVAN 66 meters ago.

“This is something that happens,” said Colin Snowlands, a professor of planetary astronomy at Edinburgh University. “Not often, but it’s something that happens. This is something we can do something.”

Knowing risks

Chris Linott, a professor of astronomical physics at Oxford University, also told the UK Parliament, Innovation and Innovation Committee in the United Kingdom this week, the risks posed by as the asteroid emerging from our solar system are little. Instead, he said, the greatest threat comes from those in the cosmic background yard.

“Most of the asteroids in the solar system are in the asteroid belt, which is between Mars and Jupiter, but they are usually disrupted, usually through meetings with any of these planets, and they can move to orbits crossing the Earth,” said Linot, who displays the BBC astronomer at night. “Then it is just a condition if we are in the wrong place in the wrong time.”

The huge chances of the asteroid – the type that occurred to dinosaurs – hit the Earth is low -recognized. “We believe that there is one of these every 10 meters to 100 meters, probably,” Lennut told the Guardian. “So I think you will be right to ignore it when you decide whether or not on Thursday morning.”

Snodgrass said that there are “four” specifically “large asteroids enough and close enough to the ground to consider the” murderer of the dinos “, and added:” We know their place, and they do not come anywhere near us. “

But damage can also be caused by smaller asteroids. According to NASA, space rocks collide with about 20 meters across the Earth’s atmosphere, which leads to gunfire 556 times more than 20 years.

Many collisions OverpowerBut not everything. “Chileabinsk is the best example,” said Lennut. In 2013, a The space rock is the size of the house It is believed that it was about 20 meters – exploded in the air over the Russian city with a The power of approximately 30 Hiroshima bombThe production of an air plane caused great damage and hundreds of injuries, most of them broken glass.

Less dramatic, in February 2021, there was a space rock that was just tens of centimeters across the atmosphere of the Earth, where shrapnel fell in the UK city of Winkomb. Fortunately, the damage was confined to Splat mark on a corridor.

Types of asteroids that may be more interested in them are about 140 meters. According to NASA, it is believed that asteroids around this size hit the Earth Once every 20,000 years It has the ability to cause great destruction and mass losses. The Space Agency has a delegation of Congress to discover and track things close to Earth of this size and larger, and a set of new technological developments that help them do so.

Collection

On Monday, and The first photos from the Vera C Rubin Observatory In Chile was released to the public. This telescope is expected to reach more than three times the number of organisms near the ground, from about 37,000 to 127,000, over 10 years. In just 10 hours of notes, seven asteroids that they did not reach and that will pass near the ground were found – although it is not expected to hit anything.

Also in the future, although the launch was not planned before 2027, the NASA surveyor is the near Earth (NEO). The agency says that an armed with a group of infrared detectors, which is “the first space telescope specifically designed to detect asteroids and comets that may be possible risks on Earth.”

Lintott said: “Between these two, we must find everything to about 140 meters.” He said that such notes should give scientists a warning for up to 10 years of potential collision.

The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning The task of being near the ground in infrared (Neomir) satellite. It is scheduled to be launched in the early thirties of the twentieth century, this will help to discover asteroids heading towards the Earth of at least 20 meters and embrace the sun.

“I think we are in a good place. I can’t see a situation like [the film] Do not look It is ever fulfilled – although I do not mind filming it by Leonardo DiCaprio. “

As our ability to discover asteroids close to the ground, Linottout said, we should get used to listening to asteroids like YR4 2024, which initially looks more vulnerable to hitting the Earth before the danger falls quickly towards scratch. He described the changing possibilities as similar when a football player takes a free kick.

“The moment they kick, [it looks like] He said: “He can go anywhere, and after moving, you get more information. So you are like:” Oh, he may go in the target, “then it becomes clear that he will miss.”

Take action

Of course, scientists not only monitor the dangers on Earth. They also make plans to protect it. In 2022, NASA shattered a spacecraft in a small, harmless asteroid called Dimorphos, revolving around a larger rock called Didymos to test if it could be changed. the The task of arrows was a successReducing Dimorphos for 12 hours around Didymos for 32 minutes.

In 2024, the European Space Agency launched Follow up on NASA’s arrows missionHe called Hera. This will reach Dimorphos in 2026 and conduct an “investigation into the crash.” You will wipe the Impact DART hole, investigate how to actually transfer momentum in collision and record a set of other measurements.

The European Space Agency hopes that this will provide decisive visions that can be used to make deliberate effects similar to a reliable technique to protect the Earth.

“It was more effective than anyone expected,” said Linot. “It is assumed that this is something related to the structure of the asteroid. I think we need to know if DART has had an explanation of its goal, or whether all the asteroids are close to the earth like this.”

For the largest part, scientists say that the threat of the asteroid strike does not maintain it at night. “We are more safe than we were before, and we are about to be safer, because the more these things we find, the more we can discover them on the way,” said Linot.

Since Esa mocked its goods: “Dinosaurs did not have a space agency.”