An asteroid capable of flattening a medium -sized city You can collide with the land Eight years after now, its orbit intersects around the sun shortly with the path of our planet. His name is 2024 yr4, the space rock carries with it Very small possibilities of amazing land – either on Earth or, even less likely, moon – and astronomy so far puts the possibility of an accident by 2 %.
International space organizations, such as NASA, will be seriously threatened, no matter how small. The head of the European Space Agency, the head of the European Space Agency, said their interest should not arouse their public attention. Share the main facts about the asteroid with CBS News during the conversation below, which was edited for clarity.
When will the asteroid hit the ground?
This asteroid passes through us every four years. Every time we go four times around the sun, I completed almost one role. He recently had Flyby in December 2024, which means that the next Flyby in December 2028, and we already know that this is not a problem.
The embarrassment is in 2032, on December 22, somewhere in the middle of the day in a global time. This is when the asteroid truly passes through part of the Earth’s orbit. So, it really passes the path of the earth, if it is permissible to speak.
The question is whether the land will be present at this time stage, or whether it has already passed or is still approaching this point. It is the question, where will it pass? There is an area of uncertainty extending, at the present time, the entire system system-and this does not mean that we do not know much about it. In fact, we know a lot about it.
Now, we look at the moment of closing in time on December 22, 2032, and the question revolves around a meter fracture per second, which will happen.
There are about 20 minutes of the window in which the Earth can be on its way before it is no longer in the way of the asteroid, or the asteroid cannot contact the Earth anymore.
How is the asteroid’s risk manage?
Until recently, we made daily measurements with different telescopes. After that, we had to stop a little for a day or two due to the complete moon, and the object is very close to the moon’s completeness, and the moon shines the sky a lot to see it.
From now on, we will not monitor it daily, but it will be constantly monitored in the best possible way, with larger telescopes than ever. The idea is to measure its way around the sun in locations higher than ever, so you will see a shrinkage of this uncertainty, shrinking, and shrinking. We are trying to restrict uncertainty that we can say if it passes the ground safely, or whether there are some opportunities remaining in mid -April.
What happens in April?
We will be very far from the object that we cannot notice from the ground anymore. Then, the James Web telescope will take measurements. It will actually take one in March, especially infrared notes that give us more insight around the object size, then another in May to do additional measurements. The most likely scenario is that by that time, you will be able to say, see, we can prove that it will not hit the ground, but there is an opportunity that we are not able to get rid of it completely. This will be the most interesting thing, because then we should wait until mid -2028, when we can monitor it again. We will not let this time pass without procedure.
When was the last time the asteroid had the likes to hit the Earth?
This is only the second time that prediction systems are classified as an asteroid with a possibility of an impact of more than 1 %. It was the last time for about 20 years, With the asteroid Apophis in 2004Which reached a few percent for a short period of time before the uncertainty area is restricted.
This explains the unusual how customary 1 %, and this means that, as experts, we must take this seriously. However, with an estimate of the current possibility by about 2 %, about 98 % of the absence of anything bad will happen. Therefore, this must be taken into account all the time. This is something worth attention, but it is not seen as an imminent threat. It is fair, we need to know more about it.
Have you really crashed on the ground?
We are aware of a modern example in history where this happened. It was 1908 in Siberia. There was an event where 2000 square kilometers of forests were flat due to a large explosion, high in the air. This is very consistent with a body with a diameter of about 50 meters, in addition to or minus 10 meters, and the Earth’s atmosphere enters.
The body itself was most likely, not a piece of solid rock. It was more like, what we call a pile of small pieces of rocks. This exploded several kilometers over the surface and had this effect, that 2000 square kilometers of forests were settled, and that seismic waves came out of this and can be discovered far away, which people also witnessed this event from too far.
We do not know if anyone has been injured in this accident. Nothing was reported. But the size, the fingerprint of destruction is similar to the main urban area, or a large city on Earth. Therefore, this is basically the scenario we expect from this.
Another example was not recorded in the history of mankind was an object believed to be about 50 meters in diameter, which is a large part of the iron that formed a Barringer Meteor hole in Arizona. It is a 1.2 km hole. If you look at this and think about it, if that will be hit in the city, the city will appear completely different after that.
The estimated volume of this asteroid ranges from about 40 to 90 meters. Will there be a big difference between the damage caused by a width of 40 meters for 90 meters?
definitely. I mean, between 40 to 90 meters is a standard estimate, because we cannot know at this time period the brightness of the surface. Current data indicates that its size is more than 40 or 50 meters. Therefore, fortunately, in the scale of the smaller size, that is why I was martyred these popular examples of this.
But, in fact, the size matters to asteroids. The size matters a lot. If we are talking about doubling the hemisphere, this means eight times the mass, eight times the energy, and this is a big difference, of course. While at the bottom end of the scale, with about 40 meters, it will be threatened, to say, a medium -sized city, at the edge of 90 meters, it may be similar to the largest urban areas.
Why did the possibility of hitting the Earth increased in 2024 since its first discovery?
The good news is that this increase does not mean that the asteroid has become more dangerous. The asteroid’s path is defined by physical laws. It is already clear. It is just our knowledge of this path, in fact, not yet perfect.
The percentage can be compared to the size of the uncertain area, compared to the size of the earth. If you look at the fracture, the size of the ground – which is located inside the uncertain area – is compared to a full area of uncertainty in the place where the asteroid can be at that critical moment in time. This is equivalent to about 1 % when we reached this threshold for international awareness.
Since then, the size of the uncertainty area is mainly reduced by half. And the size of the earth, fortunately, is still the same. This means that the Earth now occupies twice the amount of space in the uncertain area. This means that our estimation of the risks of influence has increased from 1 % to 2 %. This does not mean that anything has changed.
Again, 2 % is a 98 % missing chance. So what will happen, with the knowledge of our knowledge, the uncertainty will shrink more, more and more, and the expected situation is that we will be able to reduce it to the point that the Earth is no longer inside this uncertainty area, then the possibility of influence decreased to scratch.
If it is a close fly on the ground, if it is reasonably close, it is completely possible that the possibility of influencing the height a little on a modest path continues. This is still not a cause of warning.
The classification of 3, out of 10, was set on the risk of the Torino influence. How familiar is this?
It is the first time that an object was officially classified as level 3 on the Turin scale. The only other object is ever classified at a level higher than 1 is Apophis. Because of its larger size, Apophis was classified as 4 on the Turin scale, which only indicates that it is a larger object. [Apophis has an estimated diameter of 350 meters, which is much larger than the asteroid 2024 YR4.]
What should people know?
Well, the most important thing is, no need to panic. Always good advice, but it is definitely applicable advice in this position. I think this gives us an opportunity to prove that, as a planet, we still continue to rise above things on Earth among people, between countries, between parts of the Earth. If we are facing a completely external threat, we can all meet, link efforts and face these types of threats together.
This is a controlled challenge. Even if he is supposed to head towards Earth, which is absolutely not certain, it is clear that he will miss us. Therefore, not much fear of it, but a good opportunity to show that we can stand united on this planet.
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