Putting a price tag on extending Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and other looming free agents

Monday Deep diving in Paul SkinzPerhaps the most interesting extension status in the baseball game may be a peek at the extension week.

Now I will start taking a wider look at potential candidates for the extension, with a focus today on players whose value is less guess: the imminent free agents.

These players, in general, are less likely to sign an extension with a free agency awaiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is basically what every player in the open market can earn before adding his salary 2025. If there is nothing else, this is an early projection of the heat of the free agent in the next winter.

Since the extension week last spring, three players have already placed the pen on paper along, and they all earn a little more than I expected:

*Here and in all other tables, I will give great postponements using the current value of the contract when signed.

I have tried to do this in the analysis this year.

Here is the way I go to this: I got a large Excel with more than 1100 agents and a free extension in it, as well as the performance of players in the years before those contracts, as specified by Fangraphs wins over replacement. While the players get their salaries at home and keep arbitration, I found that FWAR is a strong indicator (albeit not known) by profits in the open market.

I connect the candidates to the extension on the spreadsheet, and I find players who have similar levels of production (and perfect with similar quantities of team control) before signing their deals, and working from those companies.

A few total points worth remembering:

• For extensions, control of the team is important. If the A player A is completely similar to the player B, but the player A has three years of arbitration against him, and the player B was a free agent, the player A will not get the contract B that B.
• To start players and players in the situation, look at FWAR in one, three years and five years, with a special focus on the shorter period. For additions in particular, the five -year sample is less useful because many players have not played for a full five years.
• For analgesics, I look at one year -long samples. What happened five years ago is not really related to such a volatile situation, and I have found more than modernity in contracts here more than anywhere.
• This is an exercise in the player’s evaluation, not commenting on the possibility of signing the extension or whether I think a team or player should sign the extension of the value I suggest. I find this useful even when the extension is unlikely because it helps me to understand what the market may be once the player reaches a free agency or to find out how the player’s value has changed over time.

We go through this, keep in mind:

• The actual projection of the extension in all cases includes what the player will make this season. It is possible that it contains AAV (the average annual value), which the player will get in the open market for this reason.
• These players must have expectations on the top of this year last year. Last year, it was removed for two years from a free agency, and they were to achieve less than the market value by arbitration.
• The number of brackets is the player’s age on July 1 this year.
• In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the modified inflation.
  

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Vladimir Guerrero Junior (26)

Perhaps no one in the baseball game had a better year for their potential profits from Guerrero. Wash his season 5.5 wins (according to Fangraphs), that is, fears after 2023 pedestrians and reminded sport as one of the best strikers. In addition, a player was signed with strengths and similar weaknesses for more than 750 million dollars. So Guerrero is much better this spring than last spring.

Earlier in the spring training, why did it collapsed The value of Guerrero has proven to be a difficulty in installing. Currently, it appears to belong to the bottom of the second layer of free agents for the first time (Miguel Cabrara is the only busy for the top layer).

The expansion of a 14 -year -old deal from free agents would limit AAV just a touch, to about 30 million dollars. I know, I know: a deal that has long been crazy. But there were dozens of players who signed deals at least nine years in the last three years – or shy of the number of contracts signed over the previous decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Teria Turner, Mane Machado, and Xander Bogaerts) during the 40 -year -old player, as this Guerrero does.

2024 dropping extension: Seven years, 185 million dollars
2025 salary: 28.5 million dollars
2025 dropping extension: 15 years, 450 million dollars

Kyle Taker (28)

If Taker remains in good health last season and continues to play the way he did in the first half of the season, the best statistical companies will be … Soto. Because of his age, Taker was unable to get a long deal like Soto, but he was able to file a similar annual value.

Companies are not as bad as they are.

Tucker should be able to secure a deal during a 36 -year -old season, and it is not difficult for him to argue that he should go longer than Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go with 10 years with about 35 million dollars before adding this season’s salary.

2024 dropping extension: Eight years, 204 million dollars
2025 salary: 16.5 million dollars
2025 dropping extension: 11 years, 366 million dollars

Dylan (29) stopped

Last season, and Zac Gallen entered a similar place: at the same age, he gained himself in arbitration, in almost one line. After that, while Gold had a nice season, a company has published the last five of the five best in the CY Young ballot. He placed himself in the same group as major beginners of this last winter.

Lester puts the high end to stop, and these companies indicate that stopping can actually get more than one Burns from DiamondBacks. Both indicates a deal to buy six years free agent. Let’s appreciate those less than $ 33 million and add a salary this year.

2024 dropping extension: Seven years, 140 million dollars
2025 salary: 13.75 million dollars
2025 dropping extension: Seven years, 210 million dollars

Zach Galen (29)

Currently, Galen is not the same as the stop level.

This puts it almost in the issuance of 2025 of the Cueto deal at the Free Agency: Six years and 174 million dollars, before adding this year’s salary.

2024 dropping extension: Seven years, 140 million dollars
2025 salary: 13.5 million dollars
2025 dropping extension: Seven years, 187 million dollars

Framber Valdez (31)

Valdez has achieved a lot of success, such as stopping and thickening. For him, the issue is that he is larger than these men. Beginners who have arrived in the open market, who is entering at the age of 32, rarely signs more than three or four years. (Exceptions are men like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, who all have CY Young Awards.)

Let’s adhere to the same Gallen companies, but only for four free years instead of six years.

2024 dropping extension: Five years, 105 million dollars
2025 salary: 18 million dollars
2025 dropping extension: Five years, 134 million dollars

Devin Williams (30)

Just looking at raw numbers is not charitable for Lilloms, who is based on everything on the basis of appearing there with new close people who have signed four -year deals like Tarisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed nearly two -thirds of last season.)

Given that there is no position whose salaries are paid for reputation, Williams can be in a line on a deal competing with Scott, before adding this year’s salary.

2024 dropping extension: us
2025 salary: 8.6 million dollars
2025 dropping extension: Five years, 80 million dollars

(The upper image of Dylan stop: Orlando Ramirez / Getty Pictures)