Sudden loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back ‘decades’ | US weather

The Ministry of Defense will stop an embarrassing program to collect data in the atmosphere at the end of June and gave the predictors the weather only for preparation, according to General notification Send this week. Scientists who spoke with the Guardian say that change can re -predict the hurricane “contracts”, just as this year’s season increases.

In a national message to manage ocean and atmosphere (NOAA) that was sent on Wednesday to its scientists, the agency said that “due to the recent service changes,” the DMSP satellite program will lead to stopping all DMSP data and distributing it no later than June 30, 2025.

Due to its unique characteristics and its ability to appoint the whole world twice a day Very high accuracyThree DMSP satellites are an essential source of information for scientists to monitor the development of marine ice in the Arctic. DMSP partners with NOAA to make weather data collected from the available satellites available to the public.

NOAA said the changes will not affect the quality of prediction.

However, the Guardian spoke with many scientists inside and outside the US government whose work depends on DMSP, and everyone said that there are no other American programs that can form an appropriate alternative to its data.

“We are a bit blind now,” said Alison Wing, a hurricane researcher at Florida State University. The pavilion said that DMSP moons is the only one that allows scientists to see inside the clouds of the development of hurricanes, giving them a critical advantage of predicting that it may be at risk now.

“Before these types of satellites occur, there will often be positions that wake up in the morning and a big surprise about the shape of the hurricane,” Wing said. “Given the increases in the severity of the hurricane and increasing the rate of spreading towards rapid condensation in recent years, it is not an appropriate time to get less information.”

Industrial satellites also formed a unique source of data to track the changes in the Arctic and the unit of the Antarct For more than 40 years.

“These are some areas that change the fastest on this planet,” said Carlos Movat, an ocean designer at Dilayer University who was working on a research project in Antarctica based on DMSP data. “This new announcement about marine ice data really promotes our blindness and prevents us from monitoring these critical systems.”

The researchers say that the satellites themselves work naturally and do not seem to have suffered from any mistakes that would prevent physical data from continuing to collect and distribute them, and therefore sudden stopping may be an intended decision.

“It is very shocking,” said Moufat. “It is difficult to imagine what will be the logic of removing access now and in a sudden way that it is impossible to plan for it. Certainly I don’t know any other previous cases as we take the data collected, and we only remove it from the audience’s arrival.”

The loss of DMSP comes at a time when the weather and climate control services in NOAA have been exposed to players this year Donald TrumpThe so -called “Ministry of Governmental efficiency” initiative (Doge) planting Drconian Discounts To federal environmental programs.

The current Noaa scientist who wants to not be identified for fear of revenge said that the procedure to stop DMSP, when it is taken in its context with the other recent moves by Trump administrationIt has reached a “regular destruction of science”.

The researcher also confirmed that federal hurricane experts left unprepared for sudden change with just a few days of notice.

The scientist said: “It is an immediate loss of almost half of our capabilities.” “You cannot expect us to make precise predictions and warnings when you take useful tools away. It is frankly embarrassing for the government to follow a cycle with less data and pretend that everything will be fine.”

The scientists said that the decision to stop the DMSP will lead to the deterioration of the hurricane expectations immediately during what it is It is expected to be a higher season than average In addition to a gap in marine ice control – completely The marine ice in the Arctic strikes New standard decrease.

“This is a great success for our prediction capabilities this season and beyond, especially our ability to predict rapid intensification or estimate the strength of storms in the absence of hurricane fishermen,” said Michael Laurie, the meteorologist who worked at the National Federal Emergency Administration Center. “The permanent stopping of data from these satellites is meaningless, and is at risk of tens of millions of Americans living in the hurricane alley.”

DMSP dates back to 1963, when the Ministry of Defense has determined the need for high -precision cloud expectations to help them plan spy tasks. The program, which was the tallest initiative of the satellite in the federal government, has evolved into a decisive source of information not only on the internal works of hurricanes, but also on polar marine ice, wildlife, solar power and euro.

In recent years, DMSP Struggle to preserve it Consistent and priority financing within the Ministry of Defense while moving away from its mission in the Cold War. The only nation that has a similar satire capacity is Japan, and Messages published earlier in June It indicates that scientists were already thinking of turning into Japanese data In case of DMSP interruption – although this transition will take time.

NOAA nor the Ministry of Defense exactly did not specify any changes in the service that has prompted such an embarrassing program to stop suddenly.

In a statement to the Guardian newspaper, Kim Duster, NOAA Communications Manager, said: “DMSP is a single data set in a strong set of prediction and modeling tools from the hurricane in the national weather service portfolio. This routine process of alternating and replacing data cannot be unseen in the previous administration, but the media escapes from the criticism practiced by everything that is going on around it.

“Noaa data sources are fully able to provide a full set of advanced data and models that guarantee the gold weather that the American people deserve.”

One of the NOAA sources who spoke with the guardian said that the loss of high -resolution DMSP data cannot be replaced by any other Noaa tool.

The trustee has also contacted the Ministry of Defense for more interpretation and will update this story with any response.