Texas is on the right path to overcome California and becomes the most widespread state in the union by 2045, according to a report published by Realtor.com Real Estate Company earlier this month – which recently transferred its headquarters to Austin of the state of Golden State.
According to a group of American Statistics Office and its own data, RealTor.com expected that the population of Texas would reach 42 million in that year – an increase of 35 percent over its current number, which is less than 31 million.
Such a shift can have a profound impact on a policy and culture not only Texas but the United States as a whole, with one state policy expert Newsweek This will increase the representation of Congress and the support of one of the activists that it can enhance separatist feelings in Lone Star State.
Newsweek The governor of Texas called Greg Abbott Through the email to comment.
Photo verbs by Newsweek/Getti
Population mutation
Texas has seen its inhabitants over the past decade, with about four million population between 2013 and 2023, more than any other state. Between July 2023 and July 2024, the population of Texas increased by 562,941, according to the data of the Statistical Office, giving it an annual growth rate of 1.8 percent; Third in the federation behind Florida and the province of Colombia.
Between July 2020 and July 2024, the numbers of the Statistical Office indicate that the state’s population has risen from 29.1 million to 31.3 million, an increase of about eight percent in just four years.
According to RealTor.com, the era of Covid-which was healthy restrictions more licensed in Texas than many countries managed by Democrats-has caused an increase in internal immigration. In 2019, about 20 percent of home shoppers came from outside the state, but this rose to 33 percent by April 2023.
There was a noticeable source of internal migration, California, with about 102,000 people from Golden State to the state of Lun Star in 2022 alone, according to the Texas transfer report for 2024 in Texas. This phenomenon has become so popular that it has its own name, Texafornia.
A statistical office analysis by RealTor.com concluded that the highest percentage of California to the Texas engine (37 percent) made a decision to change climate. This was followed by a new job or a work transfer (36 percent), the desire to own a house instead of rent (31 percent) and loss of the job or search for a job (10 percent).
The crime was also martyred as a workerWith California experience a 30 percent increase in the killing rate Between 2019 and 2020 according to Federal Bureau of Investigation Numbers. During the same period, the Texas Ministry’s General Safety figures show that the state’s crime decreased by four percent.
Thomas said a gift, a political scientist who runs the American Policy Center at College London, Newsweek: “The increasing population of Texas is driven by a warm climate, a strong economy and a relatively affordable living cost, as well as migration.”
Economic growth
The Texan economy has also flourished over the past few years, outperforming the American economy as a whole, according to the numbers collected by Statista. In 2020, the Coronav virus struck, Texas saw its economy reduced by 1.8 percent, especially less than the national number of 3.5 percent. Then he exploded in life in 2021, by 5.9 percent, followed by 3.9 percent in 2022 and 7.4 percent in 2023.
During the past few years, there are a number of companies About the company’s headquarters to Texas From California, including Chevron and Charles Shawab Corp.
In July 2024 Elon Musk He announced that he was moving X headquarters, formerly twitterAnd Spacex To Texas in response to the governor of California Gavin New No.The approval of a draft law that prevents teachers to inform parents if their children change their sexual identity.
In the X Publish, Musk said: “This is the final straw. Because of this law and many others who preceded it, and attacking families and companies, Spacex will now transfer its headquarters from Hawthorne, California to StarBase, Texas.” Musk is now a close ally of the president Donald Trump He heads the recently formed government efficiency (Doge).
One of the areas where the Texan economy is particularly prosperous is home construction, as the country represents 15 percent of all the approvals of building houses throughout the United States in 2024, according to RealTor.com, although there are only nine percent of residents The country.
The company stated that as a result, as of December 2024, the average list of the list of property in Texas was $ 360,000 – which is less than $ 40,000 less than the national average.
Joshua Blanc, who heads the Texas Policy Project at the University of Texas in Austin, said, Newsweek: “Texas has what a few other states can provide: a dynamic labor market that spreads in multiple urban areas within the same state, and affordable housing, at least when compared to places such as California and New York.”
Political power
The population of Texas has already witnessed that its political influence is strengthening, as the state captures two additional seats in the House of Representatives and two new electoral total votes in the wake of the USA -2020.
With both of them on the basis of the population, if Lone Star State continues to outperform the national population growth, it will witness its impact on a greater increase.
“The process with which demographic change leads to a slow political change,” Planck said. “But Texas is already a variety of people quickly with young residents, which is largely concentrated in its urban areas and around it.
“While California has exceeded the population, it will have a direct result on the weight made by Texas in national discussions due to the huge size of its delegation in Congress, the factors that drive the change in Texas already exist, and move forward – even if the speed of that change is slow. “
Over the past decade prominent Democrats It expressed his hope that the demographic changes, especially the population of Spanish origin, could make Texas a competitive party. However, in the 2024 presidential elections, Trump has made great gains with Spanish and black voters.
“For years, traditional wisdom held that with more people circulating to Texas, the state will turn naturally to the Democrats,” a gift said. “after Republicans Make the progress made more diverse than the population composition, and this assumption is no longer correct. “
On the national theater, the relative success of Al -Baraziya republicanThe controlled states such as Texas and Florida were compared to The relative recession for some democratic countries. In the year until July 2022, Florida and Texas witnessed an increase in its population by 1.9 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, while Democratic dominated, New York, Illinois and Origon registered during the same period.
Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images
Talk to Newsweek Daniel Miller, head of the National Movement in Texas, which calls for the independence of Texas, suggested that the increasing power of the state could increase tensions with the federal government.
He said: “The expected population growth simply confirms what we see on the ground: Texas works.
“But this growth also highlights a serious challenge. We have already sent billions to Washington more than we return every year. Under the federal system, growth means more dollars that Texas acquires greatly to support failed policies in other states.
“In order for Texas to manage this growth properly and to preserve what makes us distinguished, we need freedom to judge ourselves according to our values and priorities, and not from the bureaucrats in Washington.”
The nationalists in Texas have achieved a number of prominent victories over the past year, most notably in June 2024 when Republican Party Texas announced that submitting an invoice The call for independence referendum It will be a “legislative priority” in the next session of the Legislative Commission in Texas.
Cultural transformation
Texas has seen deep demographic transformations over recent decades, which seems to be continuing and perhaps even intensity.
The American statistics numbers that were released in 2023 of Spanish origin found the largest one -demographic group of Texas in July 2022, where it was 40.2 percent of the state’s population compared to 39.8 percent for white basis of Spanish origin. This change was accompanied by a deep cultural change, as food and practices generally associated with Mexico and other Spanish -speaking countries have become more common in the state.
The population of Texas is also aging, which is likely to have a significant impact on the state’s culture. Expectations from the Texas Demographic Center indicate that the number of Texas between the ages of 65 years or more than 65 years or more than 88 percent, while the number between the ages of 45 and 64 will increase by 57 percent.
