The chances of this asteroid hitting Earth keep rising. But there are three reasons I’m not worried yet | Carrie Nugent

R.Wo days after Christmas, the Atlas Sky Survey team discovered a new rock body in the Earth’s astronomical district. Atlas discovers things close to Earth all the time: In 2024, the team discovered 167 of them. It was also collected The comet Tsuchinachan – AtlasWhich was dazzled by Sky Atrasers last autumn. But this discovery was special: there is an opportunity for the organism 40-90 meters, known as 2024 YR4, which will hit the ground in 2032.

In January, the possibility of influencing more than 1 % was estimated, then it was raised to 2.3 % in early February. As of this week, the NASA JPL Center for Earth Studies has sparked 3.1 % -Or about 1 in 32 chances of influence.

There are four Reasons are not worried yet. First, the possible effect will be in December 2032, so we have time to prepare. Second, the asteroid is likely not to be terrible according to the asteroid standards. The small asteroid that is unexpectedly It exploded on Chelyabinsk In Russia, which caused damage but not deaths in 2013, it was about 20 meters-2024 YR4 more than that but it is still largely smaller than the diameter of 10 km that caused the extinction of dinosaurs. If 2024 YR4 strikes, this will lead to regional, not global destruction. With years of preparation, people have time to evacuate the area.

This leads us to the third reason for not panic – the surface of the earth is often water. Although the asteroid-TRRSNAMAC studies can use more research, I think most experts will agree that the effect of an asteroid-ouljoy from 40 to 90 meters can happen without losing human life or property.

Fourth, we are still collecting data on this object. The possibilities of influencing specialists who use computer programs come to know where 2024 yr4 may go. The timing here is important. In order to hit the asteroid ground, you not only need the asteroid and the Earth’s orbit to cross. You need to be the Earth and the asteroid in the same place in the solar system, at the same time.

You can photograph these track predictions as a line that shows where the asteroid may be in December 2032. At the present time, 3.1 % of the line interferes on the surface of the earth. While astronomers bring together more notes on this asteroid, they will become more confident about what its path will be, and the possibility will shrink.

As the line shrinks, the overlapping part of the ground becomes a larger part of it. It can make the possibility of influence rise – at first. This has happened before with newly discovered asteroids. But as more notes From those things it was made, the line continued to shrink. Ultimately, only part of the ground was covered from the ground, and then, Possible paths expected in the line. When that happened, the possibility of influencing quickly decreased to scratch. We will have to wait and see what is happening in the possibility of the effect of 2024 YR4.

The effects of the asteroid, in the media and literature, are often represented as a symbol of human impotence against the universe. But the reality is completely different. A few years ago, NASA I changed the orbit significantly From the asteroid. The spacecraft in Dar Kamar criticized 150 meters at a huge speed, which changed the orbital period with more than 30 minutes. Although every scenario is a unique effect, this is a promising result – it is sufficient for a kick to strike many things outside the path, causing the land to miss. However, the remaining time before the impact of 2024 YR4 is very likely to finance, build and launch a complex spacecraft.

There is a society of astronomers, software engineers, citizen scientists and civil service employees who spend their days discovering and preserving the tabs on each one Nearly 38,000 are disabled And comets That passes through space near Earth. NASA and the European Space Defense Office of the European Space Agency, which has similar targets even if they do not agree to dictate, with governments and United Nations, which are preparing for something just like this.

Every night, investigative studies are discovered like the atlas of things near the Earth using telescopes. These investigative studies send their notes to the center of the smaller planet in Massachusetts, which it examines for accuracy and spread it. This allows others to direct their telescopes in the right part of the sky, in time, and to obtain follow -up notes that secure orbit. In the case of 2024 YR4, notes flowed from all over the world – from Kansas, London, Ukraine and China, to name a few. This collective gathering and the publication of notes allows track predictions in the United States and Europe to maintain the tabs on new discoveries to see if there is an opportunity to hit the Earth.

2024 YR4 is worth monitoring. At the present time, it is somewhat dull, and the full moon was immersed in the night sky with light, making it difficult to follow. During the coming months, expect to see more upcoming notes, including those in James Web telescope for space. These notes will tell us more about the size of the object and where exactly is going.

But this smaller organism should be a reminder of the things close to the ground there. Almost, there is one chance of 350 chances to reach a much larger asteroid – 140 meters or larger – the Earth in your life. This is more likely than every 17,000 chances of showing it to lightning. Personally, I am grateful because asteroids survey the night sky regularly with their telescopes, with monitoring.