The green drought: June rainfall has come too late to offer relief to farmers in southern Australia | Andrew B Watkins, Allie Grant and Pallavi Goswami for the Conversation

HDo your grass is often discussed in the winter? It may seem to be a strange way to start a conversation about drought, but the answer helps to clarify the reason for not breaking the current drought, despite the recent rains – and why the spring load may be more expensive this year.

Southern Australia was 16 months less than rain. Western Victoria, agricultural areas Southern Australia (Including Adeleide) and even parts of West Tasmania suffer from record dry conditions. These rainfall measurements began in 1900-126 years.

The low and less density weather systems of the southern coastal line since February 2024 compared to the usual. Simply put: Earth He did not receive enough rain dumps.

But June finally brought rain to some of the drought affected areas; There is even a green emerald tin to the fields in some agricultural areas. But it is now Very cold until plants grow quicklyIn the sense that farmers will manufacture straw and purchase additional feeding for livestock until the weather will decrease in the spring.

Very little, very late

This month, Some areas have received good rainsIncluding places near Melbourne, with a lesser extent, Adeleide. The city’s residents may be forgiven to think that drought has been broken and that farmers are happy. But drought is not so simple.

Unfortunately, the precipitation was inconsistent, especially the far interior. The coastal flood did not extend in parts of southern Australia in early June to the far north. Traditionally, the beginning of the winter crop transplantation season is distinguished 25 mm of rain for three days -What is called “autumn break”. But many areas did not get a break this year.

Rain deficiency (drought meteorology) doubles water in the soil for crops and pastures (agricultural drought). Parts of Western Australia, SA, Victoria, Tasmania and South New South Wales Kan She left a little moisture in the soil. So some rains quickly Mired It is also drained in the deepest soil.

To make things worse, The fall was the warmer ever For southern Australia, after its second summer, the second summer. This can increase “Thirst” from the airIn the sense that any water on the surface is likely to evaporate. Drought last thirst, like 2017-2019 Tinderbox dehydration in New South WalesIt was especially difficult.

Some areas may have seen “Drought flash“When the landscapes and plants dry much faster than you expect that there is no rain alone. By May, it is significantly high. Eroscopic stress They were present at Southeast SA, Victoria, South New South Wales and North Tasmania.

in Late May In early June – and again this week – there was Winter dirt storms In SA. These dirt storms are a bad sign on the dryness of the earth.

Some areas no longer have enough water to fill rivers and dams (hydrological dryness). Water restrictions It was presented in parts of southwest Victoria and Tasmania. Office Fasting expectations It does not seem promising.

Drought

Remember to liken the weeds? The winter cold has already started throughout the south. This means that it is simply very cold for any strong, strong growth of grass and for this reason the grass does not often cut the grass at the present time.

Cold temperatures, instead of low rainfall, also reduce pasture growth. While a distance of rain, the rain added the emerald to some landscape, often just a green smear. Anyoneally, it is clear that there is a very limited new growth; Instead of new, abundant and strong buds, there is little green return to the remaining herbs. This means a very limited summary of the livestock, and for more worse, sometimes green comes Winter weeds are the best adaptation.

There will be a lot of straw transfer, regardless of the rain, until the spring, when the soil begins to warm up again and a new growth returns. All this adds up to fewer stocks reserved in the fields or an additional additional cost in time and money to farmers – and ultimately, the grill of mutton is more expensive.

Is this climate change?

Southern Australia (southern Washington, S, Tasmania, Victoria and South New South Wales) used to experience almost weekly rains in the fall and the beginning of winter; Cold fronts and deep low pressure systems roll from the West Bring the largest part of the rains.

Now there is a much more intermittent style in these areas. The rainfall in crops fell from April to October and the pasture growth season is about 10 % to 20 % since then Mid -century. The most powerful direction of clear drying during the decisive months Between April and July.

More discounts in rainfall in the southern growth season by the end of this century, especially in southwestern Australia. The southeastern regions, including South VictoriaParts of SA and North Tasmania, It also showed a steady drying directionWith more time in dehydration every contract.

Dehydration is complex. Just because it rains, it does not always mean that it rains enough, in time, or in the right place. What is more than the clay is that green dehydration can deceive us in thinking that everything is fine.

Drought break will require meteorological Fixed rains over several months. Fracture of agricultural dehydration will also require more warmth in the soil. Expectations indicate that we may have to do so Wait for spring.

• Andrew B. Watskins is a research scientist in the Earth College, the atmosphere and the environment at the University of Monash

• Allie Gallant Professor of the Australian Center for Excellent Research in the Rit

• Pallavi Goswami is a postmodern research colleague in Monach University

• This article includes scientific contributions from David Jones and Pandora hop From the Australian Meteorological Office.

• This article was originally published in Conversation