Zelenskyy faces perilous re-election odds as US, Russia push Ukraine to go to the polls as part of peace deal

Almost one year after the president’s validity ends Volodymyr Zelensky’s The United States and Russia are compatible for five years, and an agreement that the Ukrainians should go to the polls and decide whether they will maintain the head of state.

Russia insisted that it will not sign a peace agreement Even Ukraine The elections are agreed, and the United States is now “floating” the idea of ​​a three -stage plan: a ceasefire, then the Ukrainian elections, and then blocks a peace agreement.

Zelinski’s state was supposed to end in office last May, when the elections were originally identified in April 2024. But the president’s assistants said that the elections will not take place until six months after the end of the martial law. The Ukrainian constitution prohibits the holding of elections under martial law.

With his popularity decreased nearly 40 % since the outbreak of the war, the future of Zelinski could be at risk if peace is reached and the elections were held.

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Earlier this month, Trump envoy For Russia Ukraine Keith Kelog said that Washington wanted Kiev to elections, perhaps by the end of the year, as soon as it is mediated in a peace deal.

Zelinski called that the Ukrainians were concerned about these statements.

“It is extremely important for Kelog to come to Ukraine. Then people and all our circumstances understand,” Zelinski said in comments on the Guardian.

Other American politicians called to Ukraine to hold its elections on the appointment last year.

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Ukraine defenders say after the war will be a much better option, but the elections provide Russia as an opportunity to sow chaos.

“The only person who takes advantage of the elections before a solid peace deal is Putin,” said Andrew Dairi, his colleague at the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council. “The Kremlin loves elections, not in their country, but elsewhere, because it provides an opportunity to destabilize things.”

Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko also claimed that the Ukrainian authorities will hold elections before the end of the year. “Write it – October 26 this year,” he said in an interview with him recently.

But David Arshamia, the parliamentary leader of the Zelinski servant of the People’s Party, denied the Poroshenko claim in a telegram.

Zelenskyy resisted the lifting of martial law to be able to hold elections. (Reuters/Valentin Eaglenko/File Photo)

“During the martial law, it is impossible to hold the elections […] The leaders of all parties agreed not to hold the elections until at least six months after the end of the martial law. He said Arshiah.

Poroshenko, President of Ukraine from 2014 to 2019, who collected his wealth in the field of sweets, lost to Zelinski in his attempt for a second. He is seen as a possible competitor to return a match, Poroshenko previously opposed the elections before the war ended, on the pretext that Putin will use propaganda to undermine it.

But some have begun to ask whether Zelenskyy can survive in a re -election campaign.

Zelenskyy witnessed approval rates to 90 % at the beginning of the war in 2022, but it fell to about 50 %, according to the Kiif International Sociology Institute (KIIS) that included 2,000 respondents in December.

“Zelinski’s prospects for winning the elections depend on the accurate conditions for the ceasefire, that is, the general perception of them as” victory “,” honor “or” defeat “. Haditiation is barely reasonable in 2025. Moreover, the elections require preparations … the elections are not very likely until at least 2026.

American officials in Riyadh were to meet their Russian counterparts in a peace agreement on Tuesday. (Reuters/Evlin Hakstein/Baraka)

“It is unlikely that Zelinski will win the elections, if it will be held in Ukraine, because his popularity decreased dramatically at the end of 2024,” said Russian -American intelligence expert, Rebecca Kovler. “The Ukrainians are exhausted in war, and many have come to realize that it is not achieved for Ukraine.”

“It is almost certain that the Russians will manage secret operations to influence the elections in order to elect a pro -Russian candidate,” Kovler added.

Zelenskyy also has a major donor from the first elections, Ihor Kolomoyski, who was accused in both the United States and Ukraine of money laundering and bank fraud.

Zelinski’s main opponent is expected to be Valerie Zalozni, a four -star general and UK’s current ambassador. Zaluzhnyi, as head of the armed forces last year, launched a major – and unpopular defeat. Zaluzni claimed that the war with Russia had reached a dead end in late 2023.

Levitte says that Putin is seen as a “great competitor” but he is still an American “opponent” as Ukraine negotiations are waving on the horizon.

Vice President JD Vance, Foreign Minister Marco Rubio and others will attend a meeting with Ukraine President Voludmir Zelinsky on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany, on February 14, 2025. (Olha Tanasiichuk/Oukrinform/AbacAPress.com)

Russia, although it insists on the elections as part of negotiations, is unlikely to win a more convenient Ukrainian government, supporting Russia in any result of the elections.

“All the applicants in the elections will be supporters of the rich and supporters of Europe who want Daniri.” It differs. ”

“The only people who are close to anywhere near Zelinski in the polls are people like General Zaluzni, with really entrenched national accreditation papers in Ukraine,” said Henry Hill, a professor at George Washington University who specializes in public opinion in Ukraine. “Any of the forces loyal to Russia do not have a lot of standing there.”

Zelenskyy 11 political parties have banned relations with Russia in 2022. Many pro-Russian legislators in the country fled on the border-and four deputies of their Ukrainian nationality were stripped of relations with Russia in 2023.

Some of the lawmakers belonging to the banned political groups simply turn partisan affiliations. It faces an annoying alliance without elections to replace parliament members who change jobs or join the army. Zelenskyy has been forced since then to rely on parliament members who were previously part of the pro -Russian parties.

Hill expected that if elections are made before a peace deal is ink, this will enhance the chances of Zelinski’s re -election.

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“Although there are many people in Ukraine who do not think he has done the best job in managing the war effort, there is still a very strong boost in the population of the crowd around it as a symbol of resistance.

“Many people who actually criticize him will continue to vote for him, so that they do not risk changing horses in the middle of the road,” Hill went. “If you get a peace deal, it has credible security guarantees in it, then, yes, after that, they have elections, and you may see some real strong competition.

“I think at this point it becomes a very open question whether Zelenskyy will win.”