The Observer view on Russian aggression: the west risks a far worse conflict if it fails Ukraine now | Observer editorial

DDonald Trump’s signature rant attempt last week Pressure on Vladimir Putin The end of the war in Ukraine, which the Russian leader started three years ago, next month represents a welcome shift. Throughout the US election campaign, the Republican candidate complained about the costs of military aid to Kiev. He claimed that the war would never have started if he had been in the White House, and bragged that he could end it “within 24 hours.” Trump also avoided personal criticism of Putin. The nature and history of their relationship has long been shrouded in mystery. It still is.

However, Trump’s tone and focus have changed significantly since he began his second term as US president on Monday. Putin refused to enter into unconditional negotiations Russia is as vulnerable as UkraineHe said. “I think he should make a deal. I think he’s destroying Russia.” Public threats quickly followed. Trump said the Russian economy was collapsing. Putin must “stabilize now and stop this ridiculous war” or face additional US tariffs, taxes and sanctions. We can do it the easy way, or we can do it the hard way – and the easy way is always better.”

In his inaugural address, Trump portrayed himself as a global peacemaker. But even this consummate narcissist must realize that his promise to end the war overnight was ridiculous. What seems to have changed his thinking is diligent and Skillful pressure by Volodymyr Zelensky. The Ukrainian president has been broadcasting a simple message for months: Russia started the war, Kiev is ready for dialogue, and Putin is the problem. Among his most convincing arguments, at least in Trump’s mind, is that the conflict hurts business and harms US economic interests.

Another Zelenskyy tactic is shameful flattery mixed with cunning. He described Trump as… A “decisive” leader.Last week, he congratulated him on his “peace through strength” policy. However, this is primarily a policy developed and promoted by Zelensky. It entails maximizing Ukraine’s ability, through an immediate and large-scale infusion of Western weapons, missiles and munitions, to repel the Russian advance while strengthening its future negotiating position. European allies in NATO, including Britain, support this strategy. In fact, Zelensky supported Trump.

Trump will likely continue to oppose sending billion-dollar military aid packages to Ukraine. But he may find that his rhetoric inevitably leads him down this path. In his latest statements, Putin denied and reiterated the threat of new sanctions Open for individual discussions. Putin is not above flattery on his part. He described Trump as “smart” and “courageous.” Maybe he thinks he can fool him. And he may be right – which is a major concern for Ukraine and Europe.

In contrast to Trump’s predictions of Russia’s collapse, Putin got a boost from a renewed pledge of unlimited support from the Chinese president. Xi Jinpingthrough the newly signed strategy Partnership agreement with Iranand by North Korea’s continued readiness To send its unfortunate soldiers to die in a meat grinder in Donbass. In preparation for any US-initiated peace talks, Putin has also worked to improve and expand Moscow’s terms. Until now, Russia has insisted on keeping the 20% of Ukrainian territory it occupies, and ensuring the military neutrality of a “denazified” government in Kiev in the future.

Putin clearly believes he is winning. “Our army continues to advance along the front line, and the enemy continues to retreat,” he said in a press conference at the end of the year. He now also rules out reaching an initial agreement that “freezes” the conflict. For any ceasefire to happen, he says, Kiev must first accept all of Moscow’s conditions. Putin’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also called for a complete restructuring of Europe’s “common security arrangements” to address Russia’s long-standing concerns. The conversation is no longer limited only to the current war in Ukraine. It is about a future war between Russia and the West. By some measures, that larger, covert and undeclared war is already underway. Last week marked the beginning Joint NATO naval patrols in the Baltic Seaaimed at reducing the risk of further sabotage of pipelines and undersea communications cables by Russian and Chinese actors.

The week also brought unusual news Confrontation in the seas off Cornwall Between a Royal Navy submarine and a Russian “spy ship” – and Russian cyber interference February elections in Germany. Many of these incidents, which appear unconnected and are usually deniable, form part of an increasingly deepening confrontation between Russia and Western democracies, and are a direct byproduct of the failure to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine. Now Putin portrays his country as engaged in a process Escalating global conflict With the international system led by the United States. He and his allies are seeking to turn the matter upside down. This is the larger context in which Trump, Keir Starmer and other NATO leaders must swim or sink.

That is why it is crucial that Zelensky’s call to arms for peace through strength is heard and acted upon. Starmer was right, during his recent visits to Ukraine and Poland, to urge allies to “DoubleRegarding Kyiv’s support for achieving “peace on Ukraine’s terms.” Mark Rutte, head of NATO, was right to urge this Increase in national defense budgets. Zelensky is right to urge Europe as a whole to wake up The full extent of the Russian threatIt should fulfill its global responsibilities – and be prepared, for example, to send tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire and deter renewed aggression. Even Trump may be slowly realizing that there will be no peace anywhere if Putin wins.