The chances of space rock can strike the Earth in less than a decade that just rose, according to NASA scientists. the The asteroid 2024 yr4Which is expected to pass the Earth in 2032, was recently calculated to have one chance of 43 to hit our planet. On the contrary, it was only 2024 YR4 only a 1-of -of-83 opportunity Who hit our planet.
However, before panic, note that 2024 YR4 only measures three on Torino scale. This scale, created by astronomers to help them assess the risks posed by the various things close to the Earth, the rocks that occupy the first rank in the merit of astronomy but not the general public. The risk level of this specified space rock has been updated to calculate new accounts, but there is still a 97.7 % chance that 2024 YR4 misses the entire Earth.
“At this stage, humanity should not be concerned about this,” through Macarena Garcia Marin, the James Web Space Telescope project (JSWT) at the Space Telescope Institute, for the salon. These things should be higher when these objects are discovered, and we learn more about them. Director’s estimated time program To assess its size. “
Even if the Earth hit, experts warn that it is unlikely to cause significantly damage. When asked if we should be anxious, I told Ethan Sijal, the theoretical astronomical physicist, the salon “at all”.
“Any being missing us will consider” a potential threat “to measure it well enough.”
“It is possible that it will be less active even than the modest effect of Chelyabinsk since the beginning of this century,” said Sigil, noting that we are still not enough enough in the potential collision cycle in 2024, (and therefore why his chance to hit us) are multiple unwanted with The maximum caution. This is a sign of Chelyabinsk that entered the Earth’s atmosphere on the Russian Chelyabinsk Oblast in 2013. This object was about 60 feet (18 meters), large enough when entering it, briefly shone from the sun in a range of sunlight. 60 miles (100 km) away. He – she More than 1,600 people were injuredMostly broken glass.
“Any being missing us will consider” a potential threat “to measure it well enough to know its course more more, and the small size and the period of short notes that we have for this thing is the reason that we say and said Siegel:” It has a chance ~ 2 % to influence us. ” Better data, we will know if it will strike us or exercise simply, completely harmless. “
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In an unlikely case that 2024 YR4 appears to be ready to hit the Earth, scientists have a lot of plans – some films that hesitate “Deep effect” To address this crisis. In fact, in 2022, NASA showed a “Deep Impact”-inspired A vehicle known as the Double asteroid Restore test (DART) can You collide with a semi -earth being.
“We may consider severe measures to send a nuclear weapon to the surface of this asteroid in order to distort it,” Astronomical writer Dr. David Whitehaus Sky News said. Other scholars Possible deviation tactics such as lasers, motor effects and so -called “gravitational tractors” suggested.
2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth, which means that astronomers will More telescopes need to continue monitoring. Despite this difficulty, 2024 YR4 should remain easily visible until April, although it is not expected to return to the vicinity again until 2028. They hope for it in the meantime, their movements will change their accounts in a way that makes them see this even Less likely to collision with the ground. The rock will remain on the list of risk in NASA until at least 2028.
“The ongoing notes of the Earth’s telescopes involved in the international asteroid warning network will continue while the asteroid is still visible until April, after which it will be very fainted to monitor until about June 2028,” NASA said in A. statement.
As the navigation engineer at the jetpox laboratory and the center of studies near the ground said, David Versia told CNN, “The more we follow a asteroid, the more prediction. While we collect additional data, the uncertainty will decrease in the position of 2024 YR4 in 2032. Given that The possibility of influence is only 1 %, it is possible that the Earth will eventually fall outside the scope of potential situations and that the possibility will decrease to zero.
