The oil crisis fuelled by Russia’s war is evaporating – and so are the profits | Oil

Nearly three years ago, the Russian invasion of Ukraine She eliminated the largest gas source in Europe and shocked the global energy markets, which paved the way for a quarter after another of the best profits expected for fossil fuel producers ready to benefit from fluctuations. And now these returns began to calm down.

But as the markets decline to a boiling point, the oil official officials warned that profits are heading towards boiling. An abundance of new oil and gas projects, raised by a Agendary pro -fuel from the White House, It can mean weaker markets in the future.

The largest oil company in Europe, coincidenceIt is widely expected to achieve weaker profits this week when it reveals its financial results for the whole year. The largest LNG Trading Company in the world warned the shareholders earlier this month that the results of oil and gas circulation for the last quarter of last year are likely to be much less than in the previous three months.

The amended annual Shell profits are likely to decrease to a little more than 24 billion dollars (19 billion pounds) for the past year, according to the agreed point of view for City’s analysts. This is a decrease from 2023, when the profits of the entire year decreased to 28.25 billion dollars from A record number of about 40 billion dollars In the previous year, when the war began in Russia.

It is expected that the largest American oil company, Exxon Mobil, will announce its weaker profits in its annual results this week. The major oil company that It announced record profits of $ 56 billion in 2022The company informed the investors this month that they would expect a sharp decline in oil refining profits and weakness in all its activities.

Even with Trump A set of measures to support the fossil fuel sector, It is unclear whether oil companies can expect a profit made by the Kremlin’s war machine. Within days of his inauguration, the forty -seventh president called OPEC oil to reduce global oil prices by pumping more crude oil. Trump claimed that this may end the war in Ukraine – probably by strangling the revenues of the Russian government oil company – accusing the producers. Extending the conflict by keeping prices high.

Trump’s call to increase crude oil production from Saudi Arabia and American oil companies “to dig a small drilling machine” can achieve his promise to reduce costs on families, but they will not help oil companies much. Who donated millions for his presidential campaignAccording to analysts. Recent warnings about Exon and Shell’s profits appeared in a large part due to the weakness of oil and gas markets, which no significance shows that a structural recovery in the near term.

The average American gas standard, known as Henry Hob, reached $ 2.57 per million British thermal units in 2023, a decrease of about 62% from the average in 2022 when the gas markets rose after the full Russian invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, gas prices fell more to an average of $ 2.33 per million British thermal units.

It is a similar story for oil markets. The average Brent international crude price reached more than $ 100 a barrel in 2022 with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, before it decreased to 82.60 dollars in 2023. Last year, the average price reached $ 80.20 a barrel, though From the escalation of the conflict in Gaza, with prices drop to an average of $ 80.20 a barrel. $ 74.40 in the last quarter.

The steady decline in fossil fuel prices, in part, reflects the “new natural situation of energy” in various parts of Europe, as the two countries have adapted to the loss of gas and oil supplies across Russian pipelines by relying more on imported sea imports from the United States and the Middle East.

However, low oil and gas prices indicate deeper questions about the world’s future appetite for fossil fuel and the continuous growth of new projects to satisfy them. The International Energy Agency has made clear two things: First, There are no new fossil fuel projects consistent with the climate goals in the world; Second, the significant increase in the new oil and natural gas projects will exceed the demand from this year. This led to a decrease in market prices for the rest of the contract.

“Trump’s call for low oil prices makes you believe that it is closer to the American oil industry, Putin and Muhammad bin Salman, which one might think,” says SEB. “Does he stand by the American consumer, preferably low oil and gasoline prices, or is he standing alongside the rich oil lobby that wants to control the supply and maintain the price of oil at a healthy level?”