The Supreme Court — and Black voters — may decide who controls the next Congress

the supreme court It is scheduled to decide whether the construction of the second black -majority congress area is in Louisiana Violate Fourteenth modification. Its decision, along with similar sayings, can affect the progress of the lower federal courts, on the mid -term result of 2026.
Judges will hear an oral argument later this month in the Louisiana case against Calis, the issue of re -dividing the federal circles that challenge the makeup of the Sixth Congress region in the state of Bayu. The boycott was drawn by legislators in 2024 to enhance Louisian black vote, according to L. Voting Rights Law. Twelve of Louisiana’s voters challenged the new map in the Federal Court last spring, the court canceled the training, and issued that the boycott created a non -constitutional racist Gerrymander. The state appealed that the ruling on the Supreme Court, which set a hearing on March 24.
with Democrats and Republicans This issue-in addition to the similar issue about the regions of minorities and glue in Georgia and Alabama-is preparing in addition to the similar litigation around the regions of minorities and glue in Georgia and Alabama-in addition to the similar litigation around the regions of minorities and social in Georgia and Alabama. It is also a test of the extent of courts’ willingness to ensure the extension of American democracy to its growing minorities.
The margin of the fine code between Democrats and Republicans in the House of Representatives-214-218, respectively-means that the middle of the period for 2026 can decrease to a number of factors, including the three seats in Congress in the case in these cases, and both political parties realize this, according to Karim Crayon, head of the Brennan Center for Justice.
“The court decision will have an impact on whether these provinces are present, and whether or not, which makes it likely that African Americans have an opportunity to elect a candidate,” he told the Salon newspaper in a telephone interview. “But it also has an effect on a party balance on Congress. [if] These three seats – all of which are a handful of elected Democrats – are eliminated, then the road may be more striking for Democrats to return to the majority. On the contrary, it may be easier for Republicans to stick to it. “
Louisiana V. Callais in the Callais V case. Landry at the American District Court of the Western Region in Louisiana. Twelve non -black prosecutors A suitable suit Against the state on the new boycott lines drawn on the Senate Bill in 2024. The legislators re -drafted the boycott map as a result of 2023 Robinson’s decision against ErdinWhich requires the establishment of a second majority region in the state in order for the Congress map compatible with the second section of the voting rights law.
in September 2024 The Movement In the case presented to the Supreme Court, the twelve voters’ lawyers have argued that the lawmakers “used the racist identity to deceive Abrails and thousands of other voters in the regions of the US House of Representatives”, “excessive representation of black voters and discrimination against others before the 2024 elections.
They added: “Republicans surrender a vital seat in the Congress, which can threaten their narrow majority, yet both the previous map and the alternative proposal of Applez in the provincial court protected all the five republican positions,” and called on the judges to confirm the minimum ruling or reject the case.
The boycott court last year sided with the prosecutors, to rule These lawmakers mostly relied on race when re -drawing the new Congress map and failed to prove that the lines were tightly designed to enhance the state’s interest in compliance with VRA. The court said that the map is violating the protection of the equal protection item against Racism.
Since then, the state has resumed this decision before the Supreme Court, which last year put a residence in the local court order using a SB8 map. Black prosecutors from the Robinson case joined the lawsuit now consumed before the Supreme Court to ensure that the second congressional boycott they fought is intact.
In a statement of a salon, Stewart Naifier, Director of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund for the project to re -divide the circles representing the prosecutors, Robinson, Louisian has accused the non -Black behind the initial lawsuit of “an attempt to strip the black voters from a hard win” and the Congress map that provides them with “equal voice.”
“The result of Louisiana will not be determined against Calis the following steps for the Louisiana map and the application of federal laws to re -divide the circles, but it will expect the flexibility of the principles of our democratic nation of fair and equal representation to move forward.
Appllees lawyer did not respond to an email request for comment.
In each other federal claims that can affect Midterms 2026, Caster V. Allen in Alabama and Pendergrass V. Rafffensperger in Georgia, prosecutors arranged that they rearrange the maps of the regions that are re -assembled in the second section of voting rights. State Trustees of the Republican Party participating in cases Ownership Arise The arguments against the required requests for VRA to draw the black majority areas are discussed, noting the decision of the Supreme Court that prohibits the positive procedure based on the race, while emphasizing that these preventive measures must end in the end.
At the heart of these claims, a crucial challenge lies in the power of American democracy, especially for black southerners. Since the cases challenge the amount of black-majority areas in these states-and in Georgia and Alabama issues, whether American voting authority is still a racist enough to require any treatment at all-it is a threat to the tools to maintain fair and equal representation of marginalized societies in the already vulnerable VRA.
“There was an attack on enforcement tools like the fifth section; the second section remains a viable tool in the system, although it was attacked and narrowed to a large extent [the Supreme Court]”Creton said.” Maintaining the tool means that in these states, legislative bodies will understand that they must respect the population who live there. So keeping these two regions in Louisiana, the two regions in Alabama, the group of regions in Georgia, will matter. It is important, of course, to test the legitimacy of the court to agree with its interpretation of the law. “
recently research From the Brennan Center, it was found that the establishment of a black-majority areas in Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia increased the participation of black voters by up to 6 % and reduced the voter’s turnout gap between black and white voters by 2-4 %.
“In a world in which we know that the elections can sometimes manage ten cents due to narrow margins, these numbers are important,” said Creton. “So only in terms of who wins and loses, this is a difference. I say, after the end of the elections, what are the issues and societies that the elected member will also give priority.”
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Nick Stefanopoulos, a professor of election law at Harvard University, who focuses on the American electoral system, added that the regions of the black majority such as the explanation in these cases are “the car in which black voters in these countries get responsive representation in Congress; and without it, the state maps will be biased against the needs and interests of the voter departments.”
However, Stefanopoulos did not agree to the level of influencing these cases on the strength of voting for black voters in these states – and whether their decisions will affect the results of the mid -time. He said, in principle, these challenges should not have a major impact because they do not change the “basic responsibility” of the state under VRA. He said that even if the Supreme Court agreed that the congress map in Louisiana is unconstitutional, there is still a VRA violation that the state will need to address.
“Section 2, this course has already approved the need for these provinces, so the issue now is how to design maps that include these areas without violating the separate ban of racist commodities,” Stefanopoulos told Salon in an email interview.
However, Democrats assert that the issues in Louisiana, Georgia and Alabama have the ability to undermine the second section of VRA. Marina Jenkins, Executive Director of the National Re -Democratic Division Committee, argued that Republicans are trying to return to previous maps “in favor of” Al -Jerry “that did not allow sufficient competition for the majority of the House of Representatives as well.
“If these new fair maps are dismantled, then this will be in danger, and the ability of the American public to translate their preferences into Congress, you will definitely be in danger.”
Black voters Election of an overwhelming majority Democratic candidates in their elections and choose the candidates based on To what extent they give the priority of society’s needs for their political or personal interests. Jenkins said that maintaining these provinces can be important to ensure that they have legislators who know how to determine their needs, and much less than that they consciously represent them at the federal level. She added that the presence of two black majority areas in Louisiana, for example, allowed black voters to elect their favorite candidates to Congress “for the first time in nearly 30 years.”
“The Democrats have been elected new members of the Black Gathering in Congress,” Jenkins said. “If these areas change, then these seats will certainly be in danger.”
Creton’s assessment of the importance of the issue is assumed that the existence of the Earth. Given that the judges maintained the black majority area and reaffirmed the second section of VRA in 2023 Allen against Melijan A case in Alabama, and he said he expected the Supreme Court to do the same here. He said that the court is that the states will have to redraw the provinces in a different way.
He said that the current administration and the violation of the government to gradually change to collect unrest, however, makes the potential Supreme Court’s decision much more uncertain. This uncertainty increases with what he described as the lack of consistency of judges John Roberts regarding his commitment to communication with balls and strikes only as justice. Roberts was aggressive in Reduce voting rights And “the understandings in advance of how the law work.”
“I think the real test is whether John Roberts is as good as his word,” said Creton.
“If this is their opportunity to surprise and say:” Oh yes, no more voting law “, it is an opportunity for them to say that. But it will come at a cost.” “This is what is at the test here, whether this is a new era or not, as we do not see the federal government a valid force for voting.”
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