IT was the closest that Donald Trump had reached a clear statement of the doctrine of government. “I may do it. I may not do thatThe president told reporters in the White House park. “Nobody knows what I will do.”
The question was to join Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. A few days later, the American bombers were on their way. Some expected to happen. Others, including Kiir Starmer, have registered, saying they did not do so. No one knew. The principle of inability to predict was not in both cases.
It also applies to economic and local policy. Trump’s boast of ambiguity on tariff rates, or a The decision to publish the naval infantry Against the United States, citizens who are united by its immigration agency.
The volatile lack of consistency is a feature of the presidential personality, but also the technique of managing learned. Keeping everyone around you, penetrating from magic to jackets, and switching and dropping the favorites on a whim – these are ways of forced control. It generates confusion and weakness. People who prepared for sudden mood swinging should comment on all the word leader, looking for a sermon, waiting for instructions. The individual agency is lost, dependent. It is something the sect leaders do.
The way it works with a semi -net footnote is well suitable for international affairs. Foreign leaders are not the White House men. They may search for the American president in trade or fear of his military anger, but always with the competing national interests in the background. On the global theater, Trump will never feel the unusual dedication he gets from the worshipers in the Maja gathering, and this is one of the reasons that make him hate traveling.
This tension is clear at the NATO summit for this week in The Hague. Trump does not hide from his contempt for European democracies. He hates their dependence on the Pentagon for security. It is not convinced that defending their continent, especially its corner in light of a violent attack by Russia, is the problem of the United States. The threat he made briefly during his first term to withdraw from NATO if other members do not start paying their way to the alliance. European leaders must seek to maintain Trump as well as this during the emergency planning for the day when he decides to give up.
Matthew Whitaker, the permanent representative of the United States in NATO, Try to be reassured On this point at the top, declaring that it was “no more involved.” But he also recognized the ignorance of what Trump might already do. “I don’t want … to claim that he is able to read his mind and know what he will say.”
This is the doctrine: no one knows. This forces NATO members to a embarrassing dance, and Trump’s performance while working around him as well. They want to persuade him of their financial ambition and pledge Spend 5 % of national gross domestic product Defense by 2035, but they also know that no mutual commitment is not expected, or it cannot be trusted.
The war in the Middle East explodes uncertainty until new heights. European leaders need to focus on Ukraine and the possibility of turning Russia into its regional aggression on another part of the Eastern NATO wing. Vladimir Putin does not see any legitimacy at the limits drawn by the collapse of the Soviet Union. He also directed the Russian economy, political bodies and advertising machines to take over the war with the West. One of the lessons of Ukraine is an assumption that when Putin says he will fight, he means this. Another is that although deterrence is expensive, it is cheaper than the war that comes when the Kremlin feels confidently.
These accounts keep Europeans at night, but not Trump. He does not recognize that Russia is the aggressor in Ukraine, and will see the happiness of the end of the war on conditions that leave NATO insulting and encourage Putin, and indicates a shift in the balance of global power away from democracy.
But the framing of the choice in terms of major geological terms blocks Pettier motives, which are often prominent with Trump. He does not want Kiev’s team because this is what Joe Biden did. He is not his case and so he believes he is stupid.
This is not the case with Iran. The United States’ allies, at least publicly, must judge Trump’s military intervention as if it had been made according to the traditional diplomatic and strategic differentiation and integration: The possibility of Tehran at the end of the nuclear world is really hateful; The negotiation did not pay its fruits. Perhaps there was a reason to object to the American intelligence assessments that stated that the arms restoration threshold was not imminent. Perhaps it’s time to act on hand.
But these people rationalize the arguments, re -equipped with a choice made by Trump from vanity like any more advanced motivation. He returned to war by Benjamin Netanyahu. It seems that the Israeli Prime Minister has spoken to the US president to appear weak and unlimited appetite for glory. Early Israeli success – an unusual achievement of military intelligence that brought out senior leaders and Iranian origins – Trump’s possibility of climbing on a profitable process and attracting credit for victory.
Hint that the change of the system on the agenda might have urged Ali Khawni, the supreme leader of Iran, towards the ceasefire on the basis that early surrender with some of the strength kept, although it is not light, is the best assassination. Senior White House officials insisted that the war objectives are limited to containing the nuclear threat, but since they did not know that the war was coming in this regard is doubtful.
Trump supporters say this is evidence that his volatile style works. In strategic studies, it is known as “Madman theory”. Ignore the handrails, and the search for something irrational, forcing the enemy to choose caution. The clear danger is that he also knows the rest of the world. Iran’s rulers will be more convinced than ever that only nuclear weapons can guarantee their sovereignty. (This view will continue by changing the system, as any of the viable scenarios lead to the flowering of the West’s democracy in the region. Tehran’s atoms of the years may be placed in the years, but the reason for negotiating non -spread is also in insects.)
This does not matter Trump. He thinks in terms of easy victory, not the complex consequences. From here Clear irritation with Israel and Iran To violate the ceasefire and generally you do not know “what they are doing.” He realizes that he seems to be played by Netanyahu, as he once shown a A flash of frustration with Putin In order to “click” him in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. We promised the voters ’deals. He crosses when the world blocks them.
This is a normal function for the doctrine of not predicting. Tell other countries that they can never know what they will do makes them less diplomatic. Less environmentable to a US president’s whim. Vicious cycle and then start. Trump relies on his volatile personality to confirm control of the situations he does not understand, which generates chaos that reveals his impotence, which in turn is to dare to get more arbitrary anger on his wheels of power.
For European democracies, this is the delusional. Defense is difficult to coordinate against external threats when the prominent force in your alliance is the origin of a lot of instability. But NATO leaders will not get a rest from uncertainty as long as Trump is sitting in the White House. The thing they need from – reliability – is the only thing that the character and belief that he never offers is directed.
