In 2016, by running for the presidency and pressing for details on how to deal with some of the world’s maximum security issues, Donald J. Trump had a simple formula for cleaning the Iranian nuclear program.
He said that Barack Obama’s negotiating team should have just got up from the table and exploded. The Iranians would come. “It was a deal that could be much better if they walked several times,” Mr. Trump told correspondents From the New York Times. “They negotiated strongly.”
Now, at a moment, the Iranians are much closer to the ability to produce more weapons than they were when the last agreement was negotiated – partly because Mr. Trump himself raised the deal in 2018 – the president has his opportunity to show how it should have been done.
So far, the gap between the two sides looks huge. The Iranians seem to be searching for an updated version of the Obama era, which limited the stocks of Iranian nuclear materials. The Americans want to dismantle the wide infrastructure to enrich nuclear fuel, the country’s missile program, and Tehran has long supported Hamas, Hezbollah and other agents.
What is missing is time.
“It is necessary to reach an agreement quickly,” said Senator Jin Shaheen of New Hampshire, the largest democratic of the Foreign Relations Committee, who described Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iranian nuclear deal. “The Iranian nuclear program advances every day, and with the end of Snapback sanctions soon, we are at risk of losing one of the most important leverage points.”
Snapback sanctions allow the restrictions of UN sanctions against Iran. Its validity is scheduled to end on October 18.
Mr. Trump is now increasing to obtain a strict deal on Iran than what was agreed upon during the Obama administration, which will be a stick of measuring whether Mr. Trump has reached his goals. In order to benefit from this, his administration already threatens the possibility of military strikes if the talks do not go well, although they are not clear whether the United States, Israel or a common force will carry out these strikes.
On Tuesday, Caroline Levita, the White House press secretary, promised that there would be a “hell for payment” if the Iranians did not negotiate with Mr. Trump.
“The Iranians will be surprised when they discover that they are not dealing with Barack Obama or John Kerry,” Senator Jim Rish, the Republican in the state of Idahu and head of the Foreign Relations Committee, said, referring to the foreign minister who supervised the American negotiations. “This is a completely different ball game.”
The negotiations begin on Saturday, when Steve Whitchov, the president’s friend and colleague in New York, was reported to lead the American team. Mr. Witkeov, who also deals with negotiations on Gaza and Ukraine, has no known background in complex technology to enrich nuclear fuel, or many steps to make nuclear bombs.
The first question that will face it is the scope of negotiation. Obama’s reign deal only dealt with the nuclear program. The Iranian missile program – which was under separate restrictions by the United Nations, which Tehran – ignored or supported terrorism.
Michael Waltz, National Security Adviser, said a new agreement with the Trump administration must deal with everything, and that Iran’s wide nuclear facilities must be completely dismantled – not only left in place, as it was slow, as it was in the 2015 deal.
He said in “confronting the nation” in “confronting the nation” in March: “Iran must abandon its program in a way that the whole world can see.” He talked about “complete disintegration”, a position that would largely leave Iran without letters: there are no missiles, no agents, and no road to a bomb.
Mr. Trump said on Monday that the talks with Iran will be “direct”, and this means that American negotiators will interact with their Iranian counterparts. So far, the Iranians published a different story: Abbas Aragchi, the Iranian Foreign Minister, published an article in the Washington Post on Tuesday, saying that the country is “ready for internal appearances with the United States.” Mr. Aragcha said that the United States must first pledge to provide a military option against Iran outside the table.
“It is clear that they say they want to speak,” said Jim Walsh, one of the leading researchers of the Institute’s Security Studies Program of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But there are negotiations, then there is a surrender. Is this a list of demands or we are attacked? This will not work.”
The negotiating environment carries a higher portion than it was during the Obama administration. The Iranian nuclear program has provided since Mr. Trump ignored the previous deal; Today enriched uranium produces to 60 percent purity, just less than the bomb. American intelligence agencies concluded this Iran explores a faster approach, if it is Croder, To develop an atomic weapon, it will take months, instead of a year or two, if he decides to lead the race for a bomb.
But in other ways, Iran is in the weak negotiation.
Israel destroyed all Iranian air defenses that protect its nuclear facilities in October. Iranian regional agents, Hezbollah and Hamas, shine greatly, and they were not exposed to Israel’s revenge if Iranian facilities were attacked.
There are other factors in playing.
Iran can take advantage of its relationship with Russia at a time when the United States is trying to negotiate the end of the conquest of Ukraine. The Ministry of Justice accused the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Seek to assassinate Mr. Trump Last year, the shadow hangs over negotiations. Do the Republics of Israel and Congress accept any nuclear deal that is reached, even if it ended with twice that of the Obama team negotiated?
Dennis Gate, a professor of international affairs at the Pennsylvania State University, who wrote a book on the Iranian nuclear deal, said Mr. Trump is unlikely to threaten military strikes from the table, making the opportunity to have successful negotiations.
He said: “I think these talks will be short -term and unbearable,” he said, adding that Mr. Witkev is “a real estate man in New York, and it seems that he believes that diplomacy crosses a deal. You are negotiating back and forth and signing the deal. It is not so simple.”
There is a risk that the Trump negotiating team was outside his elements.
He said: “You are not negotiating a final price or a major deal, but they are very technical problems such as uranium enrichment levels, centrifugal specifications and inspection systems.” “There is an ocean of space between saying that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and that the Iranian nuclear program must be” dismantled “like Libya.
“It believes that there is an opportunity to succeed in negotiations, as the two sides leave the table with a result that it can sell to members of their countries, including one in which Iran eliminates regular inspections.
Mr. Mossavian said: “Steve Witkev, for my understanding, really wants to make a deal. He really does not want war, and he has the same mentality as President Trump.” “Therefore, I see the opportunity. But the fact is that Iran and the United States have 45 years of hostile work for the solution and the agreement very complicated.”
