Trump’s transactional instincts could help forge a new Iran nuclear deal | Mohamad Bazzi
IN May 2018, Donald Trump Unilaterally withdrew the United States of the Iranian nuclear deal and prepared the imposition of US sanctions that paralyzed the Iranian economy. Trump has torn off the 2015 agreement, which lasted for Iran to negotiate with six global powers, according to which Tehran confined its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions. Trump insisted that he will be able to negotiate a better agreement than that of the Barack Obama administration.
Today, in his second term as president, Trump is eager to reform Iran A broken deal for nearly seven years.
While Trump’s comprehensive foreign policy was chaotic and isolated traditional American allies in Europe and other places, he has an opportunity to reach an agreement with Iran, which fades Joe Biden. Since Trump has moved away from the original deal, Iran has approached more nuclear weapons than it was ever. It affected enough uranium near the quality of the weapons to Make six nuclear bombsAccording to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But analysts believe that even after enriching enough uranium for the bomb, Iran will still need up to a year Actual nuclear warhead It can be published on a ballistic missile.
Last month, Trump sent a message to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamnai, 86, saying that the United States wants to negotiate a new deal. Trump continued with a General threatHe said if Iran’s leaders have not agreed to renewed talks, they will be exposed to “bombing the likes they have not seen before.” After Trump’s threats and The accumulation of American forces In the Middle East, the Iranian army said It will respond to any attack by targeting the US bases in the region, which includes thousands of American forces.
But Iranian leaders also agreed to Indirect negotiationsInstead of the direct conversations suggested by Trump. Trump sent his own envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkeov, to lead a team of American negotiators to indirectly meet with senior Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister, Abbas Aragashi. The two sides have held two tourists so far this month, under the mediation of Oman. And the American and Iranian teams Because of the meeting again At the end of this week in Muscat, the capital of Amman, where they will start talks on the technical details of a possible agreement.
While both Trump and Iran leaders have changed their tones in recent weeks, there are many obstacles before reaching an agreement, including militants in Iran and Washington, as well as opposing the right -wing government of Israel, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, who spent years at work Lose negotiations Between the United States and Iran. The main barrier will be whether the Trump administration insists on completely dismantling the Iranian nuclear program-the so-called “Libya Model”, which was named after the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, who decided to eliminate his country’s nuclear weapons program in 2003 under pressure from the United States. However, this decision deprived Gaddafi of a major crane to avoid Western military intervention after the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, which led to the fall of his regime and its killing by the Libyan rebels.
Some hawks in foreign policy in Washington, including National Security Adviser Trump, Michael Waltz, Foreign Minister, Marco Rubio, insist on this maximum strategy, which Netanyahu’s request was reported. Iran must completely dismantle Nuclear enrichment and infrastructure activity as part of any deal with the United States. If Trump follows a similar approach, the negotiations may collapse and Trump can follow up on his threat to carry out military strikes.
Iran has made it clear that it will not agree to the total end of its nuclear program, but it will accept an investigative approach, as happened in the 2015 agreement negotiated by the Obama administration alongside China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and Germany, along with the European Union. This type of agreement would set strict borders on Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and impose an inspection system that includes international screens. It seems that many Trump advisers, including Wittakov and Vice President, JD Vance, prefer this solution.
“I think he wants to deal with Iran with respect,” Wittouf said about Trump’s awareness To the Iranian regime, in a long interview last month with Taker Karlson, the right -wing media, who was strongly criticizing the republican hawks that urges war with Iran. “He wants to build confidence with them, if possible.”
Iran’s leaders seem to have received this message – and they tried to hit the ego from Trump and convey that they respect him in ways that they never respected Biden. in Washington Post Posted on April 8, and it appears that the Iranian Foreign Minister is speaking to Trump directly when he blamed the failure of previous negotiations on “the absence of a real decision by the Biden administration.” Araghchi has also played Trump’s desire often to be a peacemaker who ends America from wars forever, and he writes: “We cannot imagine that President Trump wants to become another American president who is steeped in a catastrophic war in the Middle East.”
The minister appealed to Trump’s reputation as a deals maker, citing a “trillion dollar opportunity” that would benefit American companies if they can reach Iran after a diplomatic agreement. It is clear that Iran’s leaders understand that Trump loves to fram his foreign policy as being guided by his desire to secure economic deals and benefits for American companies.
In this case, Trump instincts can lead the transactions and method of negotiations to a positive result, avoid war with Iran and undermine militants in Washington, Iran and Israel. Trump has already adopted a major shift towards Tehran from his first term, when he insisted that Iran was the main sponsor of terrorism in the world and the largest threat to American interests in the Middle East.
After assuming his post in 2017, Trump wanted to tear the Iran deal partially because he was one of Obama’s foreign policy achievements. Trump also surrounded himself with skeleton consultants who strengthened the danger of the Iranian threat, including HR McMaster, who served as National Security Adviser and James Mattis, who was the Minister of Defense. Both men led the United States forces during the occupation of Iraq, and they fought Iraqi militias with funding from Iran. Trump later appointed John Bolton, another farewell governor of the 2003 American invasion of Iraq, as a national security adviser.
During his second term, Trump removed most of the new being of his administration. Trump also seems to be aware that Netanyahu can become one of the biggest obstacles to Iran’s deal, as it was during the Obama and Biden administrations. It was not a coincidence that the president announced His plan for renewable conversations With Iran, while Netanyahu sat next to him at an oval office meeting on April 7. Netanyahu has arranged a hasty visit to Washington to search for an exemption from Trump on a new tariff about Israeli exports. but Leave empty -handed He embarrassed Trump’s announcement of Iran. This meeting was a reference to Iran’s leaders: that Trump will not allow Netanyahu to rid him, as the Israeli Prime Minister did with other United States presidents.
If Trump continues to resist Netanyahu, along with the Skilled Republicans and some of his advisers, he may be able to negotiate a dramatic deal with Iran – and to reform the nuclear crisis he launched years ago.
