The US spaces may wrestle with cold weather, but for the planet as a whole, the heat records are Blur – And very bad news. Two new studies conclude that it is an indication that the planet is likely on the right path to violating the goal of the climate agreement in Paris of restricting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Studies, published on Monday in the Nature Climate magazine for climate change, are the latest evidence for the world FailureAnd just weeks come from a more clear warning from the world of famous climate James Hansen, who said the planet was on its way He shot two degrees of global warming During the next two decades.
While many scientists said that these levels of warming can be avoided through immediate fast emissions, the chances of this seem increasingly slim. International climate work stumbles. It was one of the first procedures for President Donald Trump U.S. withdrawal Among the Paris Climate Agreement and now others, including Argentina and Indonesia, is said to be studying withdrawal.
the Paris Agreement It is very symbolic. In 2015, almost every country in the world agreed to maintain the phenomenon of global warming to much less than two degrees above the period before humans began burning large quantities of fossil fuels, with the ambition to reduce warming to 1.5 degrees.
Above 1.5 degrees, scientists say that intense heat, dryness, floods and fires will become difficult for humans and ecosystems to adapt to them. At two degrees, millions of lives will be more at risk and risk rises dramatically than stimulating turning points such as the melting of the ice plate and the death of coral reefs in the world.
Since 2015, 1.5 has been synonymous to avoid more catastrophic climate change. However, global temperatures continued to rise. Last year was the first evaluation year to violate 1.5 degrees.
Since the Paris goals refer to the averages over two decades, instead of the most famous or one years, this means that the violation of the agreement can not be confirmed with confidence until it is too late, as soon as it is too late.
So scientists behind these two new paper tried to determine whether the world is already in the first long period in the long term of a temperature of 1.5 degrees. The news is not good.
Alex Cannon’s study, an environment research and climate change, found that there is a 60 % chance to 80 %, and the Paris threshold has already been crossed in view of 12 consecutive months.
Boats cut on the exposed sand banks due to dryness in the Solimus River, one of the largest tributaries
People walk on the dry bed of the Tapagus River during the severe dryness, in the National Tapagus Forest, Paragraph, Brazil 10 October 2024 – Amanda Perropily/Reuters
The report found that the world faces 18 consecutive months at or higher than 1.5 degrees, it will be “almost certain” that the Paris Agreement has been hacked.
The other paper, led by Emmanuel Bevakua, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz Center in Germany, used climate data in the real world and climate modeling. Looking at historical warming trends, I found that the first one year violating the temperature threshold also decreases during the first 20 -year period when the average temperature reached the same threshold.
If these trends persist, it is certain that approximately 2024 will decrease during a 20 -year period of a temperature of 1.5 degrees.
Both papers stressed that rapid and strong climate work can still reduce the possibility of breaking the goals of the Paris Agreement over the years and next decades.
“For all intentions and purposes, a 1.5 -degree threshold breach is given,” said Richard Allen, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading, who has not participated in studies. “We need to redouble efforts to avoid a 2 -degree percentage threshold by quickly and quickly and helping greenhouse gas emissions.”
For others, however, that ship has already sailed. Climate scientist James Hansen, who was among the first to warn publicly from the world of climate change, said last year that the goal of 1.5 was “fatal from Doornail”.
Participate in composing this month a paper Which concluded that global warming is accelerating faster than expected, due to the regulations To reduce charging pollution. While this pollution represents a danger to human health, it has an effect on the opposite of sunlight away from Earth.
As a result, he said, global heating is likely to exceed two degrees in the next few decades with severe consequences, including the melting of ice layers and sea level rise.
Daniela Schmidt, professor of Earth Sciences at Bristol University, said, but she warned against installing on 1.5 degrees, that the new papers are undoubtedly bad news. “She has a real risk of reducing procedures and all discharged,” she said, if it is overcome.
She added that the lack of ambition will keep the world in the current warning path of about 3 degrees. “This warming has huge consequences, and in irreversible parts, consequences for nature and people.”
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