There is an opportunity by 80 % that global temperatures will destroy the annual record at least in the next five years, which raises the risk of severe drought, floods and forest fires, which is new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report It has been shown.
For the first time, the data also indicated a little possibility that before 2030, the world can face a hotter year than the pre -industrial era, a possibility that scientists have described as “horrific”.
After it was measured after 10 years heated, the latest moderate global climate updates shed light on the increasing threat to human health, national economies and landscapes unless people stop burning oil, gas, coal and trees.
The update, which synthesis short-term weather notes and long-term climate expectations, said that there is an opportunity by 70 % that the average increase in temperature of five years for 2025-2029 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industry levels.
This would put the world close to breaking the most ambitious goal for the Paris Convention, an international climate change treaty, although this goal depends Average More than 20 years.
It also reported 86 % possibility that 1.5C will be passed in at least one of the next five years, up from 40 % in the 2020 report.
In 2024, the 1.5C threshold was breached on an annual basis for the first time-a result that is not reasonable in any of the five-year predictions before 2014. Last year was the hottest in the 175-year-old observatories.
This confirms how quickly warming, up to 2c, now appears as a statistical possibility in the latest update, which was assembled by 220 members of a group of models contributed by 15 different institutes, including MET office in the United Kingdom, Barcelona Center Supercering, the Canadian Center for Oldness and Climate Analysis, and Deutscher Wetterdient.
The probability of 2c before 2030 is small-about 1 %-and it will require a rapprochement of multiple warming factors, such as the appearance of strong ninho and the positive arctic fluctuation, but it was considered impossible previously in a five-year time frame.
“It is a horrific thing to be reasonable,” said Adam Skyev of the Met office, who played a leading role in collecting data. “I have come out by only 1 % in the next five years, but the possibility will increase as climatic temperatures rise.”
The effects will not fall equally. It is expected to heat the winter seasons in the Arctic by 3.5 times from the global average, partly due to the melting of the sea ice, which means that the snow falls directly in the ocean instead of forming a layer on the surface to reflect the sun’s heat into space. The Amazon rainforests are expected to have more drought while South Asia, the coast and northern Europe, including the United Kingdom, will witness more rains.
After promoting the newsletter
Lyon Hermanson of the Mitt office, who led the report, said 2025 is likely to be one of the most fatty years on the record.
Chris Hiite, WMO Climate Services Director, described a “disturbing image” of heat and human health. However, he said that it was not too late to reduce warming if fossil fuel emissions were cut off.
“We must take a climate,” he said. “1.5C is not inevitable.”
